Monday, May 7, 2012

Daily chart for Dow
As you can see from Dow futures, there had been a false upside breakout. Price broke and made a new high on May 1st but promptly dropped and closed below the 50 day moving average. This coupled with a bearish divergence on RSI, Force index & a bearish trendline for RSI is a strong indicator that we are going down for the next few weeks. This bearish divergence is also present for S&P and NASDAQ. If we are going to continue to rally, all 3 indexes will have to move above their 50 day moving average (13,000 on Dow futures & 1380 for S&P) and stay above. See following for the daily charts for S&P and NASDAQ Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
Should the market fail to keep above these levels, we should see Dow falling to around 11,140 and S&P going to 1200. Daily chart for Crude Oil
Crude oil gapped and dropped last Wednesday when the market realised that the economy was not as resilient as they thought it was. UK was in a recession for the first 3 months of the year while Europe was still struggling with the European Union mess. Everyone who believed US was finally on its way to recovery realised that recovery still had a long way to go. Crude oil, which was one of the most important drivers of the economy, got a real 3 day beating. Daily chart for Gold
As for Gold, it had been building a bullish divergence for a couple of weeks now. It had been going sideways for 2 months now and I believe it should start a new rally in a few days.

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