Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Debt Deadline Today! - Market Analysis for 2nd August 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow

Daily chart for S&P

Daily chart for NASDAQ

The market made a 6 day consecutive down move over the past 2 weeks. This has brought the S&P futures down to its channel bottom and broke the 200 day moving average. Dow and Nasdaq are currently still above its 200 day moving average. With the US debt issue still unresolved, I believe we would be seeing more weakness in the market.
The markets had been moving sideways for the whole year now with a huge bearish divergence. As we move into August which is a seasonally weak time of the year and with the US debt issue still unresolved, we might be seeing more down moves over the next few weeks going into October. I’m expecting the S&P to break channel support and move down to around 1,200 by the end of the year.

Daily chart for the Dollar

The dollar had broke the wedge and is now testing resistance at the bottom of the wedge (red line) and also the 50 day moving average. I’m expecting this to fail and the dollar to continue to drop to around 68 on /DX.

Daily chart for Gold

Daily chart for Silver

The uncertainty over the US debt issue is pushing gold and silver up. Gold may continue to rally against a bearish divergence on MACD up to fibo retracement XOP at 1,726. Silver might have just started rallying following gold’s lead.

Daily chart for Crude Oil

Crude oil broke below its 50 day moving average. This shows that the current RSI and MACD bullish divergence in crude may not last. However there’s still the 200 day moving average. As long as crude can remain above this level it may continue to move higher.

Daily chart for Natural Gas

Natural gas is still moving in an slightly uptrending channel. We should see a bounce off the lower channel over the next few days.

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