Monday, August 15, 2011

Dead Cat Bounce - Market Analysis for 15th August 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow

Daily chart for S&P

Daily chart for NASDAQ

After a 2 day consolidation, last Wednesday marked the start of the dead cat bounce for the markets. As our title suggests, we do not think this is the start of another rally. Instead I have a down target at 1,015 on the S&P.
However like most if not all major downtrends, there has to be a huge dead cat bounce before the next leg down. First bounce target at 1,215, second target at 1,260 on the S&P. I do not think the S&P will bounce any higher than that.

Daily chart for the Dollar

The dollar is still keeping below the wedge trendline as indicated by the red line. Final target for this wedge movement will be at 72 for /DX.

Daily chart for Gold

Gold spiked right past it’s Fibo retracement XOP level at 1,725 in one huge candle last Monday and has kept above this level. Now if gold does not break below this level and bounces off, I have a final target at 2,000.

Daily chart for Silver

Silver is also showing signs of strength as it had been bouncing off the lower channel for the past week. I believe silver is at the beginning of the next rally leg which should bring it above its previous high at 49.82.

Daily chart for Crude Oil

The bullish divergence pattern on Crude Oil had failed and with it, triggered a bearish signal. However I think crude oil is following the markets for now and should bounce over the next few days. There are a range of resistances at 90-92 so I believe crude oil should start turning down from there.

Daily chart for Natural Gas

Natural gas had gone back to its usual movement for the past 2 years….sideways… Currently there are no upward or downward signals so I think it should be following this path for the foreseeable future.

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