Sunday, November 13, 2011

Formation of a Market Top - Market Analysis by Singaporeseeds for November 14th 2011

Daily chart for Dow

Daily chart for S&P

Daily chart for NASDAQ

Was very busy with the move from Winchester to London last week and coupled with this being the busiest time of the year, I didn’t have time to do my market analysis last week. Will still not be able to have proper internet access until Friday, when the people from British Telecom will come down to fix up the internet access. Things just move at a very slow pace here.

Anyway last week ended as a doji on S&P. We should see some market gyrations over the next few days as we hit a range of important resistance levels. On daily and weekly RSI, we are seeing a widening bearish divergence. I believe we are at a market top right now and the market is just churning, stronger hands giving way to weaker hands. Once the pros have moved out of the market, the market should give way real soon. I think we would end the year much further down then the levels we are at today. Most probably we should end the year at the early October 2011 lows.

Daily chart for the dollar

The dollar has bounced back up above its 50 and 200 day moving average, indicating bullishness. This should be the case for the rest of the year.

We should move back up to the early October 2011 highs over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Gold

Gold has been showing strength over the past few weeks, breaking the 50 day moving average. I am seeing a bullish signal today. If this follows through, we should see gold break its high at 1923.70 soon. With the mess in Europe getting out of hand and rating agencies making mistakes, this should not be too difficult.

Daily chart for Silver

After the huge drop in mid September 2011, silver is now sitting right above an important support level of 33.60. We should see silver move up over the next few sessions together with gold.

Daily chart for Crude Oil

Crude oil had one of the best bullish runs over the past 2 months. However we are reaching the end of this rally soon. My target is at 103 on /CL. Crude oil is very close to being overbought and this straight up rally movement is not sustainable. We could have a repeat of the late April to early May 2011 type of drop. I would expect crude oil to do move back down later this week or next week.

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