Monday, September 26, 2011

Support Testing Day - Market Analysis for 26th September 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow

Daily chart for S&P

Daily chart for NASDAQ

Quote from my last market analysis:
“The market failed to break below significant retracement level at 1,150 and bounced.
This week, we will be going back up to test the 50 day moving average again. If price breaks above this level, we will still need to break above the 200 day moving average. So as of now, I’m still favouring the downside. My take is that it should be a few months before we see the markets at this level again.
My target is 1,000 for S&P by end October 2011.”

The S&P tested the 50 day moving average and reversed. On the shorter term, the markets should bounce before market open (to around 1,150) and then continue the drop to support at the August 2011 lows. At the moment, it seems that the market might bounce at these lows. We have to see how it goes.
My final target is still at 1,000 by the end of October 2011.

Daily chart for Dollar

The dollar had reached my target on UUP and is reaching my final target at 81 on dollar futures. It should continue to trend up for another 3-4 more days.

Daily chart for Gold

Quote from my last market analysis:
“My target for gold is still at 2,000 in the futures market. However it should be noted that volatility increases dramatically at the end of parabolic trends similar to the one that gold is currently in now. Not anyone can stomach these movements and the best advice is to stay out and trade something else.”

Daily chart for Silver

Quote from my last market analysis:
“Both silver and gold are showing a bearish divergence on RSI and MACD. However with the crisis in Europe getting from bad to worse, the movements in these commodities will be increasingly news driven. This is not good for the consistent traders.
In addition, the rising dollar will weigh down on the prices of all commodities. So I’m not going to trade both gold and silver for a while.”

Gold did a huge $200 move over the past 3 days. As I’ve posted last week, gold is reaching the end of its parabolic move and it’s going to be explosive. It might continue to hit my target at 2,000 but I’m going to stay away from both gold and silver until I see some stability.
However I think both gold and silver should bounce over the next few days. Target 170 for Gold (GLD) and 35 for Silver (SLV).

Daily chart for Crude Oil

Quote from my last market analysis:
“My take is that it will drop soon, with target at 29 on USO. “

Crude oil gapped down out of its wedge and dropped. Target still at 29 on USO.

Daily chart for Natural Gas

Quote from my last market analysis:
“The bullish divergence on RSI and MACD should be a signal for higher Natural Gas prices soon. This is the same for weekly and monthly charts.

We should see the start of a multi-year rally for Natural Gas by the end of the year. As I’ve reiterated numerous times, this is a long term play so be prepared to keep some gas for a couple of years.”

Analysis is still the same.

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