Friday, March 11, 2011

Make or Break Week - Market Analysis for 14th March 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow

Daily chart for S&P

Daily chart for NASDAQ

Quote from my market analysis on 1st March 2011:
"On the S&P and NASDAQ, the indexes failed to break above an important resistance level that I call Fadhil’s fibo, after the person who discovered this. However for this setup to complete, we will have to see the market form a double top or lower high which I believe would be happening over the next few days. We might just see the lower high today."

We did indeed see the lower high form over the past 1.5 weeks. However as we move back towards the 50 day moving average, it is normal for the indexes to bounce at the 50 day moving average before continuing the trend down. We did this yesterday.

Next week we shall see whether the indexes bounce or fail the 50 day moving average. If it bounces, we will see new highs in the market and if it fails, we will be moving down to the orange line at around 1218. Currently, I believe there’s a higher probability of the latter happening.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)

Bullish divergence on UUP and on Dollar Futures right above an important support level at 21.90. This is very bullish for the dollar. First resistance would be 22.60 followed by 23.40.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)

Gold tested resistance at 139.50 thrice and then managed to break above for 2 maybe 3 days before coming down again. Yesterday both my trading systems showed sell signals. We are finally going to see a pullback.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)

Silver (SLV) hit my Fibo retracement XOP level last Monday. Silver futures my system showed an end of (bullish) trend. We will be seeing a consolidation for silver over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Crude (USO)

Crude Oil (USO) hit my Fibo retracement XOP level two Fridays ago. Since then, it has gapped and dropped. Yesterday one of my systems showed a sell. We are going to see a consolidation for crude too. Support level at 38.50.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)

UNG did a 2 for 1 stock merge this week. This is in the hope that the ETF will attract more investors/traders and better reflect Natural Gas futures. There is a bullish divergence forming on Natural Gas. Although it’s too early to tell, it seems to be finally breaking out of its very long downtrend.

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