Beware - 29 March 2012

As I write this, our system Sell signals were given last week, and today looks very much like another Sell signal (even at midday). Last's week's signals were not violated and a failed new high closing together with technicals suggest a pullback in the cards, over the next week... albeit a slight relief from the beginning of the month rallies, but at this point, looks like a target of 1260 or a breakout over 1402 on the ES.

Click on image to enlarge.

The MadScientist

29 March 2012

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.


Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Glass ceiling - 27 February 2012

In an analysis done in the late morning of Monday's trading, here is what I am seeing from the S&P500 futures (ES charts)...

The weekly chart (left) has perfected a Sell Setup and hit resistance outlined by July 2011 high. The past two weeks is basically a stall, rather than a pause, and the Force Index is hinting that the rally in recent weeks is not an accumulation phase. Given that the weekly price level is exceeding the maniac levels. This is the first warning that the next couple of months may see a good retracement/correction... now, we just need a reason to start it all rolling, something that should be within the next couple of weeks. (Watch Greece Lightning in mid-March!)
The daily chart (top right) is showing an obvious bearish divergence amid a stall. The daily chart close up (bottom panel) has a new Buy Setup that is just initiated, and needs to end below 1360 today to continue its reversal, making a breakdown of 1350 very highly probably this week.  It could well exhaustively break above 1360 and return through the range to breakdown as well. For now, the downside risk is much greater than 2 weeks ago.

I'd leave you with these words: CAUTION x 2

The MadScientist

27 February 2012

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.


Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

The day after Valentines - February 15, 2012

AH!
It seems that when you rock the boat so hard, you tend to be balancing for your dear life quite a bit.
And that is what has been happening to me for the past 2 months or so... it's not been an easy task to balance the extremes of life's journey, but I am glad I am doing ok for now.

I am looking forward to more refinement and streamlining to make things less technical, and more accurate in 2012. This would be in line with the other parts of my career that I am pursing.
I am good at what I do... and I want to be better!

So, what has been happening since the beginning of the year? A nice rally is what it is, if you missed it. Which is kinda tough to do as the rally has turned the tables on last August's rout... or has it?

Again, I find myself available to look at the charts, just before a decisive action is about to take place...


ES futures (S&P500 E-mini futures)

From the chart below, the year started with an impressive rally, and it turned the bearish outlook around having tested and failed to bread the weekly 200MA. The current rally, however, looks tired and near exhaustion. Recent high probability daily sell signals were voided and technical indicators were not too excitable following the mania in the prices just now. Notice that that candles are grey in colour? I am waiting for an impending sell signal, which should appear some time next week, perhaps after an exhaustion spike later this week, if at all. The charts are telling me something: CAUTION.

DX futures (USD futures)

The USD futures are longer term bearish, but weekly prices have been well supported. The daily chart clearly sprung a buy signal, which is suggestive of lower equities in the near term. What I do not see is the news that would spark this USD rally... not yet at least. Perhaps the Greek deadline of 25th March might be it, or the mess leading to the muddle through on 25th March 2012 will contribute?

VXX (VIX futures ETF)

Volatility had been falling well for the past 1.5 months, and the cycle is about to reverse. The weekly charts are stalling and the daily chart has buy signals. It appears to be a ripe time for an increase in volatility, and if so, this warns of an exhausted ES rally into correction phase.

TLT (Bond ETF)

Money hasn't really been pouring into the bond market since late last year. Daily moving average supports have been tested and buy signals given. This suggests a possible start of a bond rally if supports hold.

GC (Gold futures)

The gold futures weekly chart is at a downtrending channel resistance, with less than favourable candlesticks over the last 3 weeks. Weekly indicators look weak, and the daily chart has given sell signals with accompanying bearishly looking technical indicators.

Overall, while the longer term picture does seem a tad bullish, the immediate term is suggesting a bearish/corrective outlook. How this correction develops and its fundamental reason for correcting may set the backdrop for months to come. I'd be slightly bearish and very cautious as it is obvious that there is compelling confluence between the equity-USD-volatility-Gold-bond markets, all which point to a turning point and a decent correction in equities.

The MadScientist

15 February 2012

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.


Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Dr Alexander Elder and a New Beginning - Market Analysis for February 13th 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis for this week:
Went for an operation last Monday so didn’t have time to do my market analysis. Was having a hard time overcoming my Nosocomephobia. Thanks to my wife and both sides of my parents, I put my foot down and went for it. Finally got rid of my blocked and swollen nose that had plagued me for the past 7 years. It’s amazing how long I had dragged my feet on this one. I can now breathe properly and I enjoyed the first few nights of uninterrupted sleep in years.

This weekend, spent a weekend with Dr Alexander Elder learning directly from him. It was truly an insightful weekend. I will be incorporating what he taught into my trading systems over the next few weeks. So there may also be some changes to my market analysis over the next few weeks.

Anyway last week was a doji on S&P and Dow weekly charts. Daily charts looks like both S&P and Dow seems to be going for a correction. Nasdaq seems to be the only bullish indicator at the moment but I will not be surprised if there was also a correction especially since all 3 indexes had been rallying straight up since 2012.

I think we should see the start of a correction this Tuesday and it will continue into the week. Support at 1,270 on S&P.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis for this week:
The dollar should be looking for a bottom over the next few weeks. We may dip one more time before this downtrend reverses. Support at 77.2 on dollar futures.

Daily chart for Gold


Market analysis for this week:
The current rally in gold seems to have ended. We should see a dip this week to around 1,670 before the next leg up.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil had been trading in a range since November 2011 with a number of false breakouts that never lasted more than a week. All this while, there’s a huge bearish divergence building in crude oil.
I believe the next movement in crude oil will be determined largely by the direction of the dollar. So I will be monitoring the dollar closely over the next few days.

Gold at 2000! - Market Analysis for January 30th 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“The market continued to blast off to new highs the whole week. No bad news coming out from Europe could dampen this rally. This is the most bullish January that I’ve seen since I’ve started trading 4 years ago. The market closed on Friday with a slightly over-bought level on RSI at 1311.25 on S&P futures.
With one more week to go for the January barometer, I do not think anything other than an outright default by a sovereign country can turn this month into a bearish month. There are signals that this rally is getting exhausted, but this will only be a dip in a longer term uptrend.
As for my first target at 1,350, I’m now expecting a dip sometime next week. Let’s see whether the market could reach this level first. I think the dip should come in sometime next week. Support at 1,260 on S&P futures.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market closed slightly up for last week.
We had been moving up almost every day since mid December. All dips had been 1-2 days events with the market turning back up by the end of the day.
However as the market had closed Friday just below a range of resistances, I believe we should be having a minor dip starting this week with support at 1,260 on S&P futures.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.”

Market analysis for this week:
For the next few months, I reckon the movement of gold will be influenced by gold. Or should I say inversely proportional to the bullish breakout of gold.
However I’m expecting a bounce this week to around 79.80 on dollar futures. This does not change the current downtrend.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“With a falling dollar, gold and all other commodities will be expected to rally. However gold had formed a wedge (yellow lines) and if it breaks upwards and out of the wedge, and i expect it to do so, we may see 2000 gold over the next few months.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold should dominate the headlines over the next few weeks as it breaks above the huge wedge that had been building up since Sept 2011. We will hit 2000 gold over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil gapped and dropped on Friday. It closed the week just below it’s 50 day moving average. With this drop, the chart patterns seem to show that crude might not be able to rally above resistance at 39.50 as it had failed to rally above 4 times over the past 2.5 months.
Once it drops below it’s 200 day moving average at 37.20, I will take it that the rally had failed. New target would be 36.10 and then 35.10 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil is still the same.

Hitting New Highs! - Market Analysis for January 23rd 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“Last Friday, the market hit sequential setup candle 9 and made an intraday dip. I took this as the end of the first leg of rally and expected it to dip a few days before continuing the uptrend. Today, we are making new highs on pre-market futures. Take note that all these against the backdrop of France’s downgrade and the persistent threat of an expanded European crisis. This only shows how bullish the sentiment had been this past 2 months.
I had been long since early December and it seems that we will close with a bullish January. We might still dip later this week to test support at 1,260 before continuing this rally to my target at 1,350 on S&P.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market continued to blast off to new highs the whole week. No bad news coming out from Europe could dampen this rally. This is the most bullish January that I’ve seen since I’ve started trading 4 years ago. The market closed on Friday with a slightly over-bought level on RSI at 1311.25 on S&P futures.
With one more week to go for the January barometer, I do not think anything other than an outright default by a sovereign country can turn this month into a bearish month. There are signals that this rally is getting exhausted, but this will only be a dip in a longer term uptrend.
As for my first target at 1,350, I’m now expecting a dip sometime next week. Let’s see whether the market could reach this level first. I think the dip should come in sometime next week. Support at 1,260 on S&P futures.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar dropped as expected last week. I’m expecting follow through for this week. Target still the same.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold gapped above resistance last Wednesday and rallied. On weekly charts, gold had been very bullish too. I feel that we are very close to a bottom for gold. Should the huge bearish divergence on the dollar start moving, we will see gold gap and rally.”

Market analysis for this week:
With a falling dollar, gold and all other commodities will be expected to rally. However gold had formed a wedge (yellow lines) and if it breaks upwards and out of the wedge, and i expect it to do so, we may see 2000 gold over the next few months.


Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Market analysis for crude oil still the same. Target at 45.82 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil gapped and dropped on Friday. It closed the week just below it’s 50 day moving average. With this drop, the chart patterns seem to show that crude might not be able to rally above resistance at 39.50 as it had failed to rally above 4 times over the past 2.5 months.
Once it drops below it’s 200 day moving average at 37.20, I will take it that the rally had failed. New target would be 36.10 and then 35.10 on USO.

Gunning for a Bullish January Barometer - Market Analysis by Singaporeseeds for January 17th 2011

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis for last week:
“The market went flat after the New Year gap. It seems to be déjà vu as 2012 started almost exactly the same way as 2011.
At the moment, the dollar is dictating the movement of the markets with dollar inversely related to the market. Last Friday saw the end of the uptrend in the dollar rally so we should see some movement this week onwards.
I’m still bullish on the market with targets at 1,350 for the month and 1,553 for the year, but if the S&P drops below its 200 day moving average support at around 1,253, the trend would have changed to bearish and we might close with a bearish January. Should this happen, we are in for a bearish 2012.”

Market analysis for this week:
Having a great time in Bali and totally forgot about my market analysis until a while ago. I had closed all my positions just before I left for Bali even though I thought the market had a little more rally to go. I never could trust the internet connectivity in Indonesia and did not want to risk being disconnected with open positions for a week.
Last Friday, the market hit sequential setup candle 9 and made an intraday dip. I took this as the end of the first leg of rally and expected it to dip a few days before continuing the uptrend. Today, we are making new highs on pre-market futures. Take note that all these against the backdrop of France’s downgrade and the persistent threat of an expanded European crisis. This only shows how bullish the sentiment had been this past 2 months.
I had been long since early December and it seems that we will close with a bullish January. We might still dip later this week to test support at 1,260 before continuing this rally to my target at 1,350 on S&P.

Daily chart for the dollar (UUP)


Market Analysis from last week:
“The uptrend in the dollar has ended last Friday. The dollar has rallied for 2 months without any significant pullback and had stopped just below a range of resistances. We should see a pullback starting from this week.
Target at 22 and then 21.70.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Market Analysis from last week:
“Gold hit my first target last Thursday and stopped below the 200 MA. As long as the dollar is on an uptrend, it will put bearish pressure on commodity prices. With the dollar expected to dip from this week onwards, I believe we should see gold rally.
There is now a pennant pattern on daily charts. Gold would have to break resistance at its 200 MA and then the pennant resistance at 165 on GLD before a strong uptrend would emerge. I believe this movement will start sometime this week onwards.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold gapped above resistance last Wednesday and rallied. On weekly charts, gold had been very bullish too. I feel that we are very close to a bottom for gold. Should the huge bearish divergence on the dollar start moving, we will see gold gap and rally.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude gapped up and faded the gap last week. On daily charts, there’s a huge bearish divergence on MACD and RSI.
However I believe crude prices are now very dependent on news coming from Iran and the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran continues to play mind games with US, bearish divergence or not, we will see crude spike to a new high in no time.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil still the same. Target at 45.82 on USO.