Sunday, January 29, 2012

Gold at 2000! - Market Analysis for January 30th 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P

Daily chart for Dow

Daily chart for NASDAQ

Market analysis from last week:
“The market continued to blast off to new highs the whole week. No bad news coming out from Europe could dampen this rally. This is the most bullish January that I’ve seen since I’ve started trading 4 years ago. The market closed on Friday with a slightly over-bought level on RSI at 1311.25 on S&P futures.
With one more week to go for the January barometer, I do not think anything other than an outright default by a sovereign country can turn this month into a bearish month. There are signals that this rally is getting exhausted, but this will only be a dip in a longer term uptrend.
As for my first target at 1,350, I’m now expecting a dip sometime next week. Let’s see whether the market could reach this level first. I think the dip should come in sometime next week. Support at 1,260 on S&P futures.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market closed slightly up for last week.
We had been moving up almost every day since mid December. All dips had been 1-2 days events with the market turning back up by the end of the day.
However as the market had closed Friday just below a range of resistances, I believe we should be having a minor dip starting this week with support at 1,260 on S&P futures.

Daily chart for the Dollar

Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.”

Market analysis for this week:
For the next few months, I reckon the movement of gold will be influenced by gold. Or should I say inversely proportional to the bullish breakout of gold.
However I’m expecting a bounce this week to around 79.80 on dollar futures. This does not change the current downtrend.

Daily chart for Gold

Quote from my last market analysis:
“With a falling dollar, gold and all other commodities will be expected to rally. However gold had formed a wedge (yellow lines) and if it breaks upwards and out of the wedge, and i expect it to do so, we may see 2000 gold over the next few months.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold should dominate the headlines over the next few weeks as it breaks above the huge wedge that had been building up since Sept 2011. We will hit 2000 gold over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Crude Oil

Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil gapped and dropped on Friday. It closed the week just below it’s 50 day moving average. With this drop, the chart patterns seem to show that crude might not be able to rally above resistance at 39.50 as it had failed to rally above 4 times over the past 2.5 months.
Once it drops below it’s 200 day moving average at 37.20, I will take it that the rally had failed. New target would be 36.10 and then 35.10 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil is still the same.

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