Sunday, May 22, 2011

WMA 23 May 2011 - At decision point

Weekly TIP chart looks to be weakening after a short term rally. The Daily chart has had 2 recent SELL Signals and indicators are favourable for a tank. RSI is <50, Force Index is <0. JNK
JNK Weekly indicates another week or two of JNK rally in the face of a bearish divergence. The Daily has a week of rally to possibly break the previous high of 40.95. There is a rising trendline and I expect that a matching top would consequently result in a break of the trendline. Weekly Countdown has one more to complete, and Setup two more to complete.

Weekly Copper futures looks like a bounce for the next week under weak indicators. The Daily Copper futures bounced off the Fibo fan and indicators are supporting this near term rally. A BUY signal was given mid-week and the coming week looks to entend gains. Current target is the confluent TDST and the uptrendline resistance.

According to the leading indicators, we are likely to see a mild rally this week, and probably followed by a stronger movement downwards.

The Weekly US Dollar futures are showing a technical rally on an oversold USD underlying heavy volume buying. The Daily USD futures chart is very bullish after a rally that retraced and bounced off a channel support (Setup began at the bounce) and long term support level. The immediate resistance looks to be broken this coming week, and if so, would put pressure on equity and precious metals market.

The Weekly Crude futures chart shows the recent weakness, but it did not follow through. The Daily crude futures chart is interesting as it also did not follow through the tanking but stalled and consolidated at the channel resistance turned support. Strength is returning and a consolidation should be in force for a while. It remains to be seen when the rally would start with a potentially strong USD.

Weekly Gold futures chart show a recent near parabolic rally, and then a quick retracement to the COP (61.8% retracement). The weekly chart broke the uptrendline intraweekly and closed above it, qualifying as valid bounce. The Daily Gold futures chart has registered nice bounce and indicators are strengthening fast. This is indicating that Gold is starting another rally leg.

The Weekly E-minis (S&P500) futures show a long mature rally that has so far stalled for the last 3 months, making weaker attempts for a higher high. The indicators are weakening but an interim top is only indicative. On the daily charts, the futures appear to be in a decision point, having bounced off the uptrending channel and also not breaking a downtrending resistance. While all the indicators are showing a probably break of the channel, any moves next week is likely to be a bigger move that should last a longer time. Similar to the enigma of the USD futures and Gold futures, it is reflected in the S&P500 futures too.

The MadScientist - 22 May 2011

Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

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