Monday, November 29, 2010

Analysis of November trades by Singaporeseeds

Microsoft (MSFT)
Daily chart for MSFT

From my analysis at the end of October:
“I have a first target at 27.50 and second target at 31. However the 26.25 to 27.50 region is a strong retracement level and with the stock currently in this region, I will be monitoring constantly and may get out if things do not look good.”

MSFT made a high at 27.30 on the 3rd of November before failing to break the strong resistance level. It closed at 25.30 last night, erasing almost all the gains it made in October.
I got out of all my positions before market close on the 1st of the month, 50 cents from the top of the trend. As I’ve entered on the 6th of October and exited on the 1st of November, I had made 70.5% of this uptrend.

Archer Daniel Midlands (ADM)
Daily chart for ADM

I shorted ADM on the 15th of October and exited my last position on the 16th of November. First noticed this stock when I was going through the stocks that Conrad would usually trade around this time of the year.
The stock made a textbook RSI/MACD bearish divergence with a double top. However I entered too early and got caught by whipsaw at the top. Then when the stock gapped (due to poor earnings which I had expected), I got out and reentered my short position right at the top of the bounce on the 5th of November. Was profitable the very next day. I reckoned that the stock should tank to around 30.50 so I got out when the stock hit 30 on the 16th of October. (This is due to the double top)
The stock closed at 28.88 last night. This means that excluding the one fake out at the top, I’ve got 64.6% of this downtrend. I believe this is a very good trade spoiled only by my lack of confidence to risk some of my profits. As the stock tanked rapidly, my position had more than tripled. I should have held on for a while more as I was in profits. The momentum of the drop was strong with good fundamental reasons (30% drop in profits), MOBO and moving average pattern also did not give me any reason for worry.

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