Sunday, October 3, 2010

Cracks Appearing in the Market – Market Analysis for 4th October 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow

Daily chart for S&P

Daily chart for NASDAQ

The market is getting overbought and its looks ripe for a correction. From the looks of it, we might just go sideways till the end of the year. The markets had been in a wedge since May 2010 (as in seen in the S&P daily chart) and the current rally doesn’t seem to be able to break this wedge. I think we should be dropping to 1,120 on the S&P over the next few days. Where this will go to will depend on whether the supports at the 50 and 200 day moving average will hold the market up.

Gold (GLD)
Daily chart for GLD

Gold had been on a tear for the longest time ever. My target will be at 1,380 for gold. This will be at 134 for GLD. Gold is getting overbought at the moment and should correct for a while after hitting this target.

Crude Oil (USO)
Daily chart for USO

Crude Oil (USO) had been getting strong support at around 32 over the past 4 months. Now it has finally bounced off these supports and went for the 200 day moving average at 36.50. I reckon it should be able to break resistance at the 200 day moving average and reach 40 soon.

US Dollar (UUP)
Daily chart for UUP

Absolutely perfect fibo retracement and fibo fan pattern down for USD. Too bad I wasn’t looking at this when it happened. However if it rallies to test resistance at 23.30, I might have a chance to short it down to 21.80. We’ll see how it goes.

British Petroleum (BP)
Daily chart for BP

I do not usually buy individual stocks. But BP had been a screaming buy since June this year. I hesitated and missed the first rally. It screamed at me again in early September but I was busy with other things. Finally decided to go in on the 28th of September but I was too stingy and missed it. Managed to get it on the 29th and it had been a beauty. Target price at 50.50.

Apple (AAPL)
Daily chart for AAPL

This is one very overbought stock. Had the signal to short it on Thursday so went in on a very small position. I’m redefining my shorting conditions so I’ll be scaling down my positions over the next few months. Target price at 240.

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