The Market is Indecisive– Market Analysis for 17/06/2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Nothing better than a doji to add to the confusion. And this doji happened after the day the Dow and S&P had broken above their 200 day moving average on its 3rd attempt. Since dojis generally mean indecision, I supposed the market sentiment is undecided whether it should break above the 200 day moving average or not.

Today, we should see the Dow and S&P fight to keep above the 200 day moving average. On futures charts, the Dow and S&P have not broken above the 200 day MA yet. We would need to see all 3 indexes plus their futures prices break above the 200 day MA for this to work. Otherwise this may just be a fake breakout, which may come with very bearish consequences in the next few days.

Attack of the 200 day Moving Average – Market Analysis for 16/06/2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P 500


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Dow and S&P 500 broke the 200 day moving average yesterday. Today we shall see whether there is enough momentum to hold onto the gains. For any chance of the continuation of the March 2009 rally, we will need to also break above the 50 day moving average. Now there are 2 different setups with 2 different results occurring.

Setup 1:
As seen on my daily charts above, I have a nice fibo down for all 3 indexes. For this fibo to work, all 3 indexes should not rally pass their 50% retracement levels. This would mean that this rally is a dead cat bounce and should not last more than a week.

Setup 2:
Double bottom for daily chart of S&P


This double bottom pattern had occurred in all 3 indexes and Dow and S&P had broken above the resistance level at 1105 yesterday. If S&P and Dow fails to break below the line soon, we might see S&P rally to 1170. This would be 10,730 for Dow and 2,425 for NASDAQ.

End of Bullish trend? – Market Analysis for 15/06/2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily charts for Dow


Daily charts for S&P


The Dow and S&P 500 did a shooting star candlestick pattern right below their 200 day moving average yesterday. This doesn’t look very bullish to me. However a shooting star candlestick pattern would require a bearish candle today as confirmation of the start of a bearish trend. We shall see what tonight holds.

As for me, I’ll be expecting a bearish day. This is due to the continued failure of the indexes to break above its 200 day moving average. As long as the indexes fail to break above its 200 day moving average, I will be favoring a downward market.

End of Bearish Momentum and the Beginning of the Dead Cat Bounce - Market Analysis for 14/06/2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart of Dow


Daily chart of S&P


Daily chart of NASDAQ


All 3 indexes broke strongly through my lower MOBO bands last Thursday and continued through Friday. Dow and S&P closed at its 20 day moving average and upper MOBO bands while NASDAQ closed slightly above its 20 and 200 day moving average. All 3 indexes have formed a double bottom over the past few weeks on daily charts.

I believe the market is on a dead cat bounce since last Thursday and I believe this should last for the next 2 weeks. The first target will be the 50 day moving average for all 3 indexes.


Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The dollar has been on a huge rally since the beginning of the European crisis. And I believe that this European crisis should get worse before it gets any better. Traditionally the dollar is the safety haven of choice whenever there’s fear of a coming crisis. This coming crisis should push the dollar back up to the September 2009 highs of around 26.50 on UUP. As long as the dollar fails to drop below my support at 25.06, the fear of a coming crisis is still strong.


Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


I believe gold is on a strong uptrend and calls for USD 3,000 gold should not be unrealistic in the next few months. Gold is the other safety haven of choice during financial crisis but in this case, I believe the uptrend in gold is due to the huge bullish cycle in commodities that should last for the next decade. I will be looking at pullbacks as opportunities to buy some gold.


Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


As you can see on the wedge that I’ve drawn since Feb 2010, the drop in crude oil is over. Crude should be more or less directionless for the next few weeks. However I believe crude should be on a slow uptrend back towards its 50 day moving average for the next few weeks.

Continued Bearish Momentum - Market Analysis for 10/06/2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily Chart for the Dow


Daily chart for S&P 500


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Since my last market analysis on Monday, all 3 indexes had failed repeatedly over the last 3 trading days to break above the lower MOBO bands. Dow had also failed to recapture the psychologically important 10,000 level last night. This indicates weakness in the stock market and that the bearish momentum is still strong. It looks like we are poised to break below the year’s low and make a new low for the year. This should happen either today or tomorrow.

Double Failure for the Indexes - Market Analysis for 07/06/2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily charts for Dow


Daily charts for S&P


Daily charts for NASDAQ


On Friday, Dow and S&P did another ice hole failure for the 200 day moving average and broke the lower MOBO bands. Only NASDAQ is still above its lower MOBO bands. However NASDAQ is below the 200 day moving average. This shows momentum for a continued downtrend. In addition, Dow broke the psychologically important 10,000 level. If we do not rally above this level over the next few days, this will put a serious damper on bullish sentiment.

On Monday, I believe the markets should rally intraday to test resistance at the lower MOBO bands. This would be coincidentally at 10,000 for Dow, 1,070 for S&P. Should the indexes fail to rally and stay above these levels, we should be seeing the market drop to around 9,500 for Dow, 1,000 for S&P and 2,000 for NASDAQ.

Failure at the 200 Day Moving Average – Market Analysis for 02/06/2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily charts for Dow


Daily charts for S&P 500


Daily charts for NASDAQ


Dow and S&P failed to break above the 200 day moving average over the weekend and has formed a bearish candlestick pattern (last 3 daily candles) together with NASDAQ on daily charts. Both Dow and S&P are at MOBO lower band support at market close last night. Should it continue to trend down and close down today, we might be in for a few more days of tanking down to 1,000 on S&P 500.