Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Market Analysis for 11/11/2009
After yesterday’s lackluster session, I believe the indexes are ripe for a pullback. I’m currently out of all positions waiting for this pullback. Even oil and gold seemed to have overshot and are losing momentum.
Market Analysis for 10/11/2009
Daily chart for the Dow
Daily chart for the S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The Dow and S&P will be meeting some resistance at the 500 day moving average soon. (purple line) Only the NASDAQ seems to be good for a short rally after having bounced off the 20 and 50 day moving averages. (blue and red lines)
I think we should have 1-2 more days of bullishness before a dip. Whether this rally can continue will depend on the indexes staying above their respective 50 day moving averages.
Note: I still stand by my prediction of the Dow closing below 9,035 by end of the year. That’s more than 1,000 points from where we are now.
Daily chart for the S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The Dow and S&P will be meeting some resistance at the 500 day moving average soon. (purple line) Only the NASDAQ seems to be good for a short rally after having bounced off the 20 and 50 day moving averages. (blue and red lines)
I think we should have 1-2 more days of bullishness before a dip. Whether this rally can continue will depend on the indexes staying above their respective 50 day moving averages.
Note: I still stand by my prediction of the Dow closing below 9,035 by end of the year. That’s more than 1,000 points from where we are now.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Market Analysis for 09/11/2009
I finally got back home to do my market analysis! The USD is on a downtrend for the whole day now and with the indexes being inversely affected by it, the market is bond to rally. The Dow broke previous high and the S&P broke up back into the wedge. I’m expecting both indexes to run for 2-3 more days with any dips being buying opportunities into this uptrend.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Market Analysis on the Dow And S&P for 06/11/2009
I finally got back home after a long day of work. Although the non-farm payroll was bad, the market dipped and rallied back up. This indicates that the market is still bullish and not ready for the major tank. Btw, I believe that the market is now on the last leg of a rally (target at around 1,120 on the S&P) and the sentiment may turn soon.
Dow daily chart
S&P daily chart
Although the S&P seems to have broken the trend line (and also the wedge) everything seems to be intact on the Dow. Usually both of them have to move together for the movement to be a significant one.
I believe that both the Dow and S&P are poised to hit the 50% mark before turning back down for a nasty tank.
Elliot wave on the Dow
This is the Elliot wave counting on the Dow. We are going to go down soon baby!
Dow daily chart
S&P daily chart
Although the S&P seems to have broken the trend line (and also the wedge) everything seems to be intact on the Dow. Usually both of them have to move together for the movement to be a significant one.
I believe that both the Dow and S&P are poised to hit the 50% mark before turning back down for a nasty tank.
Elliot wave on the Dow
This is the Elliot wave counting on the Dow. We are going to go down soon baby!
Thursday, November 5, 2009
10 REASONS TO BE BEARISH
1) RISING UNEMPLOYMENT RATE -once it goes past the psychological level of 10%, we will likey see some strong reaction in the markets
2) CONTINUING BANK FAILURES - Banks are continuing to fail despite all the talk about recovery, the latest being CIT.
3) INCREASING COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEFAULTS - were up 200% in the period from Jan 2009 to June 2009 as compared to the whole day of 2008. Surely increasing commerical property defaults indicates that the commercial sector has not recovered.
4) INCREASING HOUSING DEFAULTS - foreclosures and defaults are still rising
5) EXPENSIVE GOLD - Gold, the safe haven for investors is at an all time high and just broke 1,000. If there is a recovery then why are investors still keeping their money in gold?
6) HIGH CRUDE OIL PRICES AND THE HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN CRUDE AND NATURAL GAS - Natural gas is usually used by the manufacturing sector and indicates the health of the manufacturing sector. The fact that Natural gas is at an all time low while crude oil is at a high indicates the weakness of the manufacturing sector in an environment of growing inflationary fears.
7) ULTRA LOW INTEREST RATES - as long as the interest rates stay down, we can be sure that the worst is not over.
8) EARNINGS ESTIMATES & ANNOUCEMENTS - seems like a whole lot of companies had beat earnings but they had forgotten to announce that their earnings estimates had been revised to such a low level that it is impossible not to beat it. And most of the revenues of the companies had actually decreased YOY.
9) FRE, FNM, AIG & C - With only 4 companies making up 25% of the stock activity in the market, this market rally is too biased for it to be an accurate reflection of the economy.
10) LOW VOLUMES - market volume is still low and with only 4 companies dominating the stock market activity, the market may spike in either directions (usually down) when market volume returns.
2) CONTINUING BANK FAILURES - Banks are continuing to fail despite all the talk about recovery, the latest being CIT.
3) INCREASING COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEFAULTS - were up 200% in the period from Jan 2009 to June 2009 as compared to the whole day of 2008. Surely increasing commerical property defaults indicates that the commercial sector has not recovered.
4) INCREASING HOUSING DEFAULTS - foreclosures and defaults are still rising
5) EXPENSIVE GOLD - Gold, the safe haven for investors is at an all time high and just broke 1,000. If there is a recovery then why are investors still keeping their money in gold?
6) HIGH CRUDE OIL PRICES AND THE HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN CRUDE AND NATURAL GAS - Natural gas is usually used by the manufacturing sector and indicates the health of the manufacturing sector. The fact that Natural gas is at an all time low while crude oil is at a high indicates the weakness of the manufacturing sector in an environment of growing inflationary fears.
7) ULTRA LOW INTEREST RATES - as long as the interest rates stay down, we can be sure that the worst is not over.
8) EARNINGS ESTIMATES & ANNOUCEMENTS - seems like a whole lot of companies had beat earnings but they had forgotten to announce that their earnings estimates had been revised to such a low level that it is impossible not to beat it. And most of the revenues of the companies had actually decreased YOY.
9) FRE, FNM, AIG & C - With only 4 companies making up 25% of the stock activity in the market, this market rally is too biased for it to be an accurate reflection of the economy.
10) LOW VOLUMES - market volume is still low and with only 4 companies dominating the stock market activity, the market may spike in either directions (usually down) when market volume returns.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Dow and S&P market analysis for 02/11/2009
Wedge on the Dow
Wedge on the S&P
The wedge, as indicated by the 2 red lines shows the decreasing volatility that the indexes are going through. Usually, this indicates the calm before the storm. Whichever way that the indexes break out of the wedge, it may run in that direction for a while. In this instance, I believe there is a high chance that the indexes may break down. This rally had lasted way too long and a correction is long overdue.
Wedge on the S&P
The wedge, as indicated by the 2 red lines shows the decreasing volatility that the indexes are going through. Usually, this indicates the calm before the storm. Whichever way that the indexes break out of the wedge, it may run in that direction for a while. In this instance, I believe there is a high chance that the indexes may break down. This rally had lasted way too long and a correction is long overdue.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Dow and S&P market analysis for 29/10/2009
Dow daily chart with moving average, MACD & McClellan Oscillator
S&P daily chart with moving average, MACD & McClellan Oscillator
See the channel that both the Dow and S&P made from the March 09 lows till now. Moved in a perfect upwards channel since then.
The Dow and S&P hit the base of the channel which is also where the 50 day moving average is now at. At the same time, the McClellan Oscillator is at an all time low of -300. This indicates that there is no more bearishness in the market. We might be getting a bounce over the next few days.
I believe that this bear rally that began on March 09 should hit 1,125 on the S&P and 10,345 on the Dow before beginning to turn back down.
S&P daily chart with moving average, MACD & McClellan Oscillator
See the channel that both the Dow and S&P made from the March 09 lows till now. Moved in a perfect upwards channel since then.
The Dow and S&P hit the base of the channel which is also where the 50 day moving average is now at. At the same time, the McClellan Oscillator is at an all time low of -300. This indicates that there is no more bearishness in the market. We might be getting a bounce over the next few days.
I believe that this bear rally that began on March 09 should hit 1,125 on the S&P and 10,345 on the Dow before beginning to turn back down.
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