The market is sure on a run now and I’ve changed from bearish to bullish now. As long as the indexes stay above the 50 day MA, the market would remain bullish. (since mid July) However I still believe that we are not out of the woods yet. The recession should be a ‘W’ recession and so we would be experience another big tank soon. According to a few indicators, the ‘soon’ seems to be sometime in Apr 2010.
I will put up more charts when I have more time tomorrow. In the meantime, trade safe and sleep well.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Dow & S&P 500 market analysis for week ended 04/09/09
I've been very busy with the bazaar lately. Learning a lot and having loads of fun. No time to do a proper analysis but this is the market analysis of my good friend David Elliot. Anyway i've learnt most of my trading techniques that i use today from him. So he's analysis should be better than mine.
04/09/2009
This week we saw our best market drop in several months.
Yesterday saw a three day pre holiday bounce that will most likely continue today without volume.
In addition the US$ continues to chop in a sideways pattern without breaking out of the range for the last two weeks. The US$ needs to breakout of 79.00 on a close to break free of this consolidation. US$ 77.85 on a close, remains our sell stop of last resort for the dollar.
Gold made a run at $10000, hit $999.50 before the sellers came into the picture.
Likely some more selling today.
This sideways/ bounce today should see some resistance at some of our major resistance targets and then start down for the beginning of a wave 3 down move.
Tuesday and Wednesday after the holiday weekend should see a continuation of the trend down that we started last week.
The DJ-30 resistance is 9383
The SP-500 resistance is 1007 - 1009.85
QQQQ resistance is 39.75.
04/09/2009
This week we saw our best market drop in several months.
Yesterday saw a three day pre holiday bounce that will most likely continue today without volume.
In addition the US$ continues to chop in a sideways pattern without breaking out of the range for the last two weeks. The US$ needs to breakout of 79.00 on a close to break free of this consolidation. US$ 77.85 on a close, remains our sell stop of last resort for the dollar.
Gold made a run at $10000, hit $999.50 before the sellers came into the picture.
Likely some more selling today.
This sideways/ bounce today should see some resistance at some of our major resistance targets and then start down for the beginning of a wave 3 down move.
Tuesday and Wednesday after the holiday weekend should see a continuation of the trend down that we started last week.
The DJ-30 resistance is 9383
The SP-500 resistance is 1007 - 1009.85
QQQQ resistance is 39.75.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
End of the current rally
According to my bro Chris and his new found Demark technique, the current uptrend had ended last night. (Demark predicts turning points and trend terminations quite accurately) This has been further confirmed by the dojis that kept forming and the volatile behaviour of the market these days. Markets behave in a more volatile way close to the end of the trends, regardless of whether it is an uptrend or downtrend.
I'm now looking for the indexes to break the 20 day MA support and then the 50 day MA support. Once the 50 MA is broken, it is then that the downtrend will be confirmed.
I'm now looking for the indexes to break the 20 day MA support and then the 50 day MA support. Once the 50 MA is broken, it is then that the downtrend will be confirmed.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Thoughts about this crazy rally...
This rally is crazy! All the talk about the market recovering and that we are out of the recession. This is just a bear trap waiting to consume everyone who are ignorant enough.
Anyway the McClellan Oscillator is edging up. It is currently at 217 now which is indicating that this current rally is running out of steam. Even if it continues to rally, it would have to dip and then rally in a wavelike manner. My opinion is that it would dip and then crash. We shall see in 1-2 weeks time whether this rally has legs.
Anyway the McClellan Oscillator is edging up. It is currently at 217 now which is indicating that this current rally is running out of steam. Even if it continues to rally, it would have to dip and then rally in a wavelike manner. My opinion is that it would dip and then crash. We shall see in 1-2 weeks time whether this rally has legs.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Dow & S&P 500 market analysis for 07/14/2009 Tuesday
Dow & S&P 500 market analysis
We are now in a crucial stage of the market movement. Any big movement up will signal the continuation of the rally since March 09, and any big movement down will signal the end of the rally and also a confirmation a down movement that started from mid June 09 that may bring us to retest the March lows. However by looking at the behavior of the market, I’m in favour of a market tank down to retest the March lows.
But for this tank to happen, the market has to fail to break above 910 for S&P and 8476 for the Dow. So my market analysis for today will be up, to test the resistances.
Direction for 07/14/2009 Tuesday: Up
Crude Oil (USO)
Crude should be going through a period of consolidation between 59.30 to 62 for the rest of the month. The setup of crude seems to indicate a down movement which may bring crude back down to 53 and maybe beyond.
Direction for 07/14/2009 Tuesday: sideways
We are now in a crucial stage of the market movement. Any big movement up will signal the continuation of the rally since March 09, and any big movement down will signal the end of the rally and also a confirmation a down movement that started from mid June 09 that may bring us to retest the March lows. However by looking at the behavior of the market, I’m in favour of a market tank down to retest the March lows.
But for this tank to happen, the market has to fail to break above 910 for S&P and 8476 for the Dow. So my market analysis for today will be up, to test the resistances.
Direction for 07/14/2009 Tuesday: Up
Crude Oil (USO)
Crude should be going through a period of consolidation between 59.30 to 62 for the rest of the month. The setup of crude seems to indicate a down movement which may bring crude back down to 53 and maybe beyond.
Direction for 07/14/2009 Tuesday: sideways
Friday, July 10, 2009
Dow & S&P 500 market analysis for 07/10/2009 Friday
Dow & S&P 500 market analysis
The S&P tanked throughout the week after breaking the 50 day MA. However we are now looking at a possible retracement to test resistance at around the 890-900 region if this tank is to be sustainable. This should be sometime next week. In the short term (1-2 months), I’m expecting S&P to rally to the 890-900 region and then tank to around 840. Longer term, I expect S&P to test the Feb 09 bottom by the end of the year.
Direction for 07/10/2009 Friday: Up
Crude Oil (USO)
I believe Crude had hit support at 59.60. It should consolidate for a few days before rallying up to test resistance at 62.20. This should take 2-3 weeks. Longer term, I believe crude should tank. The current level at 60+ is fundamentally unsustainable.
Direction for 07/10/2009 Friday: Up
The S&P tanked throughout the week after breaking the 50 day MA. However we are now looking at a possible retracement to test resistance at around the 890-900 region if this tank is to be sustainable. This should be sometime next week. In the short term (1-2 months), I’m expecting S&P to rally to the 890-900 region and then tank to around 840. Longer term, I expect S&P to test the Feb 09 bottom by the end of the year.
Direction for 07/10/2009 Friday: Up
Crude Oil (USO)
I believe Crude had hit support at 59.60. It should consolidate for a few days before rallying up to test resistance at 62.20. This should take 2-3 weeks. Longer term, I believe crude should tank. The current level at 60+ is fundamentally unsustainable.
Direction for 07/10/2009 Friday: Up
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Dow & S&P 500 market analysis for 07/06/2009 Monday
I'm finally back after a long absence. Was travelling Europe. Went to England, Scotland, France and Gerrmany and learnt a great deal.
Anyway the market from then till now had not changed much. It's still in a sideways movement though it seemed to be breaking down soon. We have what seems to be a head and shoulders formation on the indexes, and now we are all monitoring to see if it would break support at around 882 on the S&P and 8245 on the Dow.
If this support breaks, we will see some retracement and then it's down to 800 for S&P and 7500 for Dow. And should it break these 2 important support levels on the indexes, it should not take more than a month to complete the head and shoulders.
Anyway the market from then till now had not changed much. It's still in a sideways movement though it seemed to be breaking down soon. We have what seems to be a head and shoulders formation on the indexes, and now we are all monitoring to see if it would break support at around 882 on the S&P and 8245 on the Dow.
If this support breaks, we will see some retracement and then it's down to 800 for S&P and 7500 for Dow. And should it break these 2 important support levels on the indexes, it should not take more than a month to complete the head and shoulders.
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