Post Crash, Downgraded US - Market Analysis for 8th August 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


What a week! The market crashed 800+ points over the week, broke its channel support and the 200 day moving average. S&P downgraded US treasuries down a notch to AA the last weekend. This caused futures to gap down over the weekend. Gold soared and crude oil dived.
On the Demark candle counting system, today is the last day of the trend. So if this holds, we should see some consolidation today. I’m expecting a bounce over the next 1-2 weeks. This should not mark the end of this downtrend. We should be in bear territory for the next few months. However do not be surprised to see the S&P hit 1,000 before this is over.

Daily chart for the Dollar


The dollar usually rallies whenever the market crashes just like gold as it is deemed a safe haven in bad times. This was last seen in the 2008 Subprime crisis. However the movement in the dollar over the past few weeks had been nothing but sideways. I believe this shows that the dollar is slowly losing its importance in the world as a safe asset. However I think the dollar would be moving sideways over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Gold


Gold spiked up and gapped over the weekend to new highs. It is very close to my fibo retracement XOP target at 1,726. I’m still expecting gold to hit this target. However with gold rallying so much over such a short period of time, we think we should see some retracement after it had hit this target.

Daily chart for Silver


Silver usually lags gold so we should see silver rallying over the next few weeks though not on the same scale as gold. I have a fibo retracement target at 47 by end October 2011.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


With the crash in the stock market, the economy is expected to go down with it, along with crude oil consumption. Hence the fundamental weakness and drop in crude oil prices. Next support at 81.10.

Daily chart for Natural Gas


Together with crude oil, natural gas consumption is also expected to drop with expected weakness in the economy. We should see both crude oil and natural gas finding support over the next few sessions. Next support at 3.75.