Dr Alexander Elder and a New Beginning - Market Analysis for February 13th 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis for this week:
Went for an operation last Monday so didn’t have time to do my market analysis. Was having a hard time overcoming my Nosocomephobia. Thanks to my wife and both sides of my parents, I put my foot down and went for it. Finally got rid of my blocked and swollen nose that had plagued me for the past 7 years. It’s amazing how long I had dragged my feet on this one. I can now breathe properly and I enjoyed the first few nights of uninterrupted sleep in years.

This weekend, spent a weekend with Dr Alexander Elder learning directly from him. It was truly an insightful weekend. I will be incorporating what he taught into my trading systems over the next few weeks. So there may also be some changes to my market analysis over the next few weeks.

Anyway last week was a doji on S&P and Dow weekly charts. Daily charts looks like both S&P and Dow seems to be going for a correction. Nasdaq seems to be the only bullish indicator at the moment but I will not be surprised if there was also a correction especially since all 3 indexes had been rallying straight up since 2012.

I think we should see the start of a correction this Tuesday and it will continue into the week. Support at 1,270 on S&P.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis for this week:
The dollar should be looking for a bottom over the next few weeks. We may dip one more time before this downtrend reverses. Support at 77.2 on dollar futures.

Daily chart for Gold


Market analysis for this week:
The current rally in gold seems to have ended. We should see a dip this week to around 1,670 before the next leg up.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil had been trading in a range since November 2011 with a number of false breakouts that never lasted more than a week. All this while, there’s a huge bearish divergence building in crude oil.
I believe the next movement in crude oil will be determined largely by the direction of the dollar. So I will be monitoring the dollar closely over the next few days.

Gold at 2000! - Market Analysis for January 30th 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“The market continued to blast off to new highs the whole week. No bad news coming out from Europe could dampen this rally. This is the most bullish January that I’ve seen since I’ve started trading 4 years ago. The market closed on Friday with a slightly over-bought level on RSI at 1311.25 on S&P futures.
With one more week to go for the January barometer, I do not think anything other than an outright default by a sovereign country can turn this month into a bearish month. There are signals that this rally is getting exhausted, but this will only be a dip in a longer term uptrend.
As for my first target at 1,350, I’m now expecting a dip sometime next week. Let’s see whether the market could reach this level first. I think the dip should come in sometime next week. Support at 1,260 on S&P futures.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market closed slightly up for last week.
We had been moving up almost every day since mid December. All dips had been 1-2 days events with the market turning back up by the end of the day.
However as the market had closed Friday just below a range of resistances, I believe we should be having a minor dip starting this week with support at 1,260 on S&P futures.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.”

Market analysis for this week:
For the next few months, I reckon the movement of gold will be influenced by gold. Or should I say inversely proportional to the bullish breakout of gold.
However I’m expecting a bounce this week to around 79.80 on dollar futures. This does not change the current downtrend.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“With a falling dollar, gold and all other commodities will be expected to rally. However gold had formed a wedge (yellow lines) and if it breaks upwards and out of the wedge, and i expect it to do so, we may see 2000 gold over the next few months.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold should dominate the headlines over the next few weeks as it breaks above the huge wedge that had been building up since Sept 2011. We will hit 2000 gold over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil gapped and dropped on Friday. It closed the week just below it’s 50 day moving average. With this drop, the chart patterns seem to show that crude might not be able to rally above resistance at 39.50 as it had failed to rally above 4 times over the past 2.5 months.
Once it drops below it’s 200 day moving average at 37.20, I will take it that the rally had failed. New target would be 36.10 and then 35.10 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil is still the same.

Hitting New Highs! - Market Analysis for January 23rd 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“Last Friday, the market hit sequential setup candle 9 and made an intraday dip. I took this as the end of the first leg of rally and expected it to dip a few days before continuing the uptrend. Today, we are making new highs on pre-market futures. Take note that all these against the backdrop of France’s downgrade and the persistent threat of an expanded European crisis. This only shows how bullish the sentiment had been this past 2 months.
I had been long since early December and it seems that we will close with a bullish January. We might still dip later this week to test support at 1,260 before continuing this rally to my target at 1,350 on S&P.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market continued to blast off to new highs the whole week. No bad news coming out from Europe could dampen this rally. This is the most bullish January that I’ve seen since I’ve started trading 4 years ago. The market closed on Friday with a slightly over-bought level on RSI at 1311.25 on S&P futures.
With one more week to go for the January barometer, I do not think anything other than an outright default by a sovereign country can turn this month into a bearish month. There are signals that this rally is getting exhausted, but this will only be a dip in a longer term uptrend.
As for my first target at 1,350, I’m now expecting a dip sometime next week. Let’s see whether the market could reach this level first. I think the dip should come in sometime next week. Support at 1,260 on S&P futures.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar dropped as expected last week. I’m expecting follow through for this week. Target still the same.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold gapped above resistance last Wednesday and rallied. On weekly charts, gold had been very bullish too. I feel that we are very close to a bottom for gold. Should the huge bearish divergence on the dollar start moving, we will see gold gap and rally.”

Market analysis for this week:
With a falling dollar, gold and all other commodities will be expected to rally. However gold had formed a wedge (yellow lines) and if it breaks upwards and out of the wedge, and i expect it to do so, we may see 2000 gold over the next few months.


Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Market analysis for crude oil still the same. Target at 45.82 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil gapped and dropped on Friday. It closed the week just below it’s 50 day moving average. With this drop, the chart patterns seem to show that crude might not be able to rally above resistance at 39.50 as it had failed to rally above 4 times over the past 2.5 months.
Once it drops below it’s 200 day moving average at 37.20, I will take it that the rally had failed. New target would be 36.10 and then 35.10 on USO.

Gunning for a Bullish January Barometer - Market Analysis by Singaporeseeds for January 17th 2011

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis for last week:
“The market went flat after the New Year gap. It seems to be déjà vu as 2012 started almost exactly the same way as 2011.
At the moment, the dollar is dictating the movement of the markets with dollar inversely related to the market. Last Friday saw the end of the uptrend in the dollar rally so we should see some movement this week onwards.
I’m still bullish on the market with targets at 1,350 for the month and 1,553 for the year, but if the S&P drops below its 200 day moving average support at around 1,253, the trend would have changed to bearish and we might close with a bearish January. Should this happen, we are in for a bearish 2012.”

Market analysis for this week:
Having a great time in Bali and totally forgot about my market analysis until a while ago. I had closed all my positions just before I left for Bali even though I thought the market had a little more rally to go. I never could trust the internet connectivity in Indonesia and did not want to risk being disconnected with open positions for a week.
Last Friday, the market hit sequential setup candle 9 and made an intraday dip. I took this as the end of the first leg of rally and expected it to dip a few days before continuing the uptrend. Today, we are making new highs on pre-market futures. Take note that all these against the backdrop of France’s downgrade and the persistent threat of an expanded European crisis. This only shows how bullish the sentiment had been this past 2 months.
I had been long since early December and it seems that we will close with a bullish January. We might still dip later this week to test support at 1,260 before continuing this rally to my target at 1,350 on S&P.

Daily chart for the dollar (UUP)


Market Analysis from last week:
“The uptrend in the dollar has ended last Friday. The dollar has rallied for 2 months without any significant pullback and had stopped just below a range of resistances. We should see a pullback starting from this week.
Target at 22 and then 21.70.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Market Analysis from last week:
“Gold hit my first target last Thursday and stopped below the 200 MA. As long as the dollar is on an uptrend, it will put bearish pressure on commodity prices. With the dollar expected to dip from this week onwards, I believe we should see gold rally.
There is now a pennant pattern on daily charts. Gold would have to break resistance at its 200 MA and then the pennant resistance at 165 on GLD before a strong uptrend would emerge. I believe this movement will start sometime this week onwards.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold gapped above resistance last Wednesday and rallied. On weekly charts, gold had been very bullish too. I feel that we are very close to a bottom for gold. Should the huge bearish divergence on the dollar start moving, we will see gold gap and rally.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude gapped up and faded the gap last week. On daily charts, there’s a huge bearish divergence on MACD and RSI.
However I believe crude prices are now very dependent on news coming from Iran and the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran continues to play mind games with US, bearish divergence or not, we will see crude spike to a new high in no time.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil still the same. Target at 45.82 on USO.

Dominance of the US Dollar - Market Analysis for January 6th 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“We started 2011 at around 1256 on S&P and after rallying to 1373 and then dropping to 1070, it ended the year almost unchanged at 1253. This is against the backdrop of the European crisis and the softening economy of China.
We ended the year right at the 200 day moving average on the S&P.
With the market opening today, everyone will be looking at the January Barometer to determine the direction of the market for the year. Volume will still be light for the rest of the month.
I believe that we are at the beginning of a huge rally that will last for the next 3-4 years. We might dip one or two more times but the S&P should not dip more than 1200.
First target at 1350 and then 1553 for the year 2012.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market went flat after the New Year gap. It seems to be déjà vu as 2012 started almost exactly the same way as 2011.
At the moment, the dollar is dictating the movement of the markets with dollar inversely related to the market. Last Friday saw the end of the uptrend in the dollar rally so we should see some movement this week onwards.
I’m still bullish on the market with targets at 1,350 for the month and 1,553 for the year, but if the S&P drops below its 200 day moving average support at around 1,253, the trend would have changed to bearish and we might close with a bearish January. Should this happen, we are in for a bearish 2012.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is showing a topping pattern on daily charts. On weekly charts, it may continue to hold up for another week or two, but not more. Target is still the same at 22 and 21.70 on UUP.”

Market analysis for this week:
The uptrend in the dollar has ended last Friday. The dollar has rallied for 2 months without any significant pullback and had stopped just below a range of resistances. We should see a pullback starting from this week.
Target at 22 and then 21.70.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“After the big drop in December 2011, gold should bounce. There’s a bullish divergence pattern over the last 2 weeks. This should bring gold up to around 157 and then 165 over the next 2 weeks. However the longer therm trend is still down.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold hit my first target last Thursday and stopped below the 200 MA. As long as the dollar is on an uptrend, it will put bearish pressure on commodity prices. With the dollar expected to dip from this week onwards, I believe we should see gold rally.
There is now a pennant pattern on daily charts. Gold would have to break resistance at its 200 MA and then the pennant resistance at 165 on GLD before a strong uptrend would emerge. I believe this movement will start sometime this week onwards.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil is more bullish than ever, having bounced off it’s 50 and then 200 day moving average in the past week. I believe we should see a dip next week with support at around 37.50 on USO before breaking resistance at 39.50.
Final target will be around 45.20 in 3 month’s time. This will be around 113 on crude oil futures. Expect gasoline prices to increase.”

Market analysis for this week:
Crude gapped up and faded the gap last week. On daily charts, there’s a huge bearish divergence on MACD and RSI.
However I believe crude prices are now very dependent on news coming from Iran and the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran continues to play mind games with US, bearish divergence or not, we will see crude spike to a new high in no time.

The First Market Analysis for 2012; January Barometer will be bullish! - Market Analysis for January 3rd 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“The past week had been one of the most bullish for the past few months. This is just the start of the huge bullish divergence pattern that appeared on the charts a few weeks ago. This should bring the S&P up to around 1,350 over the next 2-4 weeks. This will be around 12,750 for the Dow.”

Market analysis for this week:

What a year!
We started 2011 at around 1256 on S&P and after rallying to 1373 and then dropping to 1070, it ended the year almost unchanged at 1253. This is against the backdrop of the European crisis and the softening economy of China.
We ended the year right at the 200 day moving average on the S&P.
With the market opening today, everyone will be looking at the January Barometer to determine the direction of the market for the year. Volume will still be light for the rest of the month.
I believe that we are at the beginning of a huge rally that will last for the next 3-4 years. We might dip one or two more times but the S&P should not dip more than 1200.
First target at 1350 and then 1553 for the year 2012.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“Longer term weekly chart is showing that the dollar will continue to go up, but on daily, it shows down. We might see some weakness in the dollar over the next 2 weeks. First target at 22, second at 21.70.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar is showing a topping pattern on daily charts. On weekly charts, it may continue to hold up for another week or two, but not more. Target is still the same at 22 and 21.70 on UUP.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold is still consolidating after the huge movement. It may trend down to 145 on GLD over the next few weeks. It should move in a range between 145 and 158.50 for the next 1-2 months.”

Market analysis for this week:
After the big drop in December 2011, gold should bounce. There’s a bullish divergence pattern over the last 2 weeks. This should bring gold up to around 157 and then 165 over the next 2 weeks. However the longer therm trend is still down.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil is more bullish than ever, having bounced off it’s 50 and then 200 day moving average in the past week. I believe we should see a dip next week with support at around 37.50 on USO before breaking resistance at 39.50.
Final target will be around 45.20 in 3 month’s time. This will be around 113 on crude oil futures. Expect gasoline prices to increase.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil is still the same.

Santa Claus Is Coming To Town! - Market Analysis for 27th December 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“We dipped after a huge rally that changed all my indicators from bearish to bullish. On Friday, the market closed around important support levels for all 3 indexes. This is 1215 for S&P.
Today, we shall see whether these support levels hold. If it holds, the chances that we will see a Santa Claus Rally would be much higher.
Currently, I believe that the market will hold these support levels and move up to 1350 by year end or early Jan 2012.”

Market analysis for this week:
The past week had been one of the most bullish for the past few months. This is just the start of the huge bullish divergence pattern that appeared on the charts a few weeks ago. This should bring the S&P up to around 1,350 over the next 2-4 weeks. This will be around 12,750 for the Dow.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar (UUP) made yet another bearish divergence in the market on daily charts. However on weekly charts, it seems that the dollar has more to go. At least around 2 more weeks of bullish movement before it finally give way. As the market movement is inversely correlated with the stock market, this might mean that we will have 2 more weeks of bearish market. This will directly cut into the Santa Claus rally. We shall see how it goes.”

Market analysis for this week:
Longer term weekly chart is showing that the dollar will continue to go up, but on daily, it shows down. We might see some weakness in the dollar over the next 2 weeks. First target at 22, second at 21.70.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold broke out of the triangle last Monday and completed the breakout move by the end of the week. Price closed just below it’s 200 day moving average on Friday.
Today, we should see gold consolidate after a big move. Especially with a strong and rising dollar, we should see further lower prices over the next 1-2 weeks. Next support at around 1500 on gold futures.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold is still consolidating after the huge movement. It may trend down to 145 on GLD over the next few weeks. It should move in a range between 145 and 158.50 for the next 1-2 months.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“The uptrend did indeed end last Tuesday with a gap down and drop over the rest of the week.
Now with crude at it’s 50 day moving average, we should see either a consolidation or bounce before dropping further over the next few weeks. Next support at 35 and then 33.50 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil is more bullish than ever, having bounced off it’s 50 and then 200 day moving average in the past week. I believe we should see a dip next week with support at around 37.50 on USO before breaking resistance at 39.50.
Final target will be around 45.20 in 3 month’s time. This will be around 113 on crude oil futures. Expect gasoline prices to increase.

Preparing for the Santa Claus Rally? - Market Analysis for 19th December 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“Well, the markets closed as a doji this week. On Dow, it bounced off its 200 day moving average and on NASDAQ, the 50 day moving average. The market seems to be anticipating some kind of good news from the European Crisis as it shrugged off the bad news reports coming from the ECB discussion and slowly edged upwards this week.
It seems that we should be getting good news from Europe. We shall see about this soon.
Last week, market technical changed overnight from very bearish to bullish with the release of a single news report. We will be getting more of this over the next few months. This shows how news driven this market had become.
I have a target at 1,350 on S&P that should be hit before the end of the month. If the news from Europe is indeed good, we can reach this target overnight. In the meantime, we might just move more or less sideways.”

Market analysis for this week:
We dipped after a huge rally that changed all my indicators from bearish to bullish. On Friday, the market closed around important support levels for all 3 indexes. This is 1215 for S&P.
Today, we shall see whether these support levels hold. If it holds, the chances that we will see a Santa Claus Rally would be much higher.
Currently, I believe that the market will hold these support levels and move up to 1350 by year end or early Jan 2012.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“On weekly charts, the dollar closed as a doji. Everyone seems to be waiting for a news report from Europe to start a new trend. My market analysis is still the same. I’m expecting a double dip for the dollar to 21 on UUP.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar (UUP) made yet another bearish divergence in the market on daily charts. However on weekly charts, it seems that the dollar has more to go. At least around 2 more weeks of bullish movement before it finally give way. As the market movement is inversely correlated with the stock market, this might mean that we will have 2 more weeks of bearish market. This will directly cut into the Santa Claus rally. We shall see how it goes.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold is still in the triangle. Without any significant movement in the markets and in the dollar, gold should not be moving much. We should be seeing a breakout (up or down) for gold, dollar and the markets all at the same time.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold broke out of the triangle last Monday and completed the breakout move by the end of the week. Price closed just below it’s 200 day moving average on Friday.
Today, we should see gold consolidate after a big move. Especially with a strong and rising dollar, we should see further lower prices over the next 1-2 weeks. Next support at around 1500 on gold futures.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude (USO) formed a support at 37.77 and bounced. This is also the 200 day moving average and meeting point for 2 trendlines.
On candlesticks, it seems to have formed a piercing pattern. Monday has to close as a bullish candle for this pattern to be reliable. The uptrend from early October 2011 should be ending this week.

Market analysis for this week:
The uptrend did indeed end last Tuesday with a gap down and drop over the rest of the week.
Now with crude at it’s 50 day moving average, we should see either a consolidation or bounce before dropping further over the next few weeks. Next support at 35 and then 33.50 on USO.

Waiting for Good News from Europe - Market Analysis for 12th December 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“What a difference a week makes!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/treasuries-set-for-monthly-gain-as-eu-struggles-to-stem-contagion-concern.html
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve and five other central banks cut the cost of emergency dollar funding for European banks in response to the continent’s sovereign-debt crisis.
This sparked a huge rally on Wednesday that smashed through all resistances on my charts. Non-farm payrolls on Friday was also expected to be good (which also turned out good) and this added to the euphoria.
On the S&P, we are just below the 200 day moving average and the down channel that we had been in since June 2011. If we break above the 200 day MA, it would be the start of another rally that might bring us back up to the all-time high around 1,550.
The direction of the market this week will determine the direction of the market over the next few months.”

Market analysis for this week:
Well, the markets closed as a doji this week. On Dow, it bounced off its 200 day moving average and on NASDAQ, the 50 day moving average. The market seems to be anticipating some kind of good news from the European Crisis as it shrugged off the bad news reports coming from the ECB discussion and slowly edged upwards this week.
It seems that we should be getting good news from Europe. We shall see about this soon.
Last week, market technical changed overnight from very bearish to bullish with the release of a single news report. We will be getting more of this over the next few months. This shows how news driven this market had become.
I have a target at 1,350 on S&P that should be hit before the end of the month. If the news from Europe is indeed good, we can reach this target overnight. In the meantime, we might just move more or less sideways.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“Instead of breaking through the 22.50 resistance, the dollar made a bearish divergence on both MACD and RSI. Fundamentally, the Fed boosting liquidity for Europe and the expectation of a 3rd round of stimulus in US is not giving much boost to the value of the US dollar.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/oil-rises-in-new-york-as-central-banks-led-by-fed-cut-dollar-funding-costs.html
I’m expecting the start of a new downtrend down to 21 over the next few days.”

Market analysis for this week:
On weekly charts, the dollar closed as a doji. Everyone seems to be waiting for a news report from Europe to start a new trend. My market analysis is still the same. I’m expecting a double dip for the dollar to 21 on UUP.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold is still within the triangle. However I’m expecting a movement (can be either up or down) this coming week. With the dollar expected to drop over the next few weeks, and the Fed boosting liquidity, Gold is set to make a new high soon.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold is still in the triangle. Without any significant movement in the markets and in the dollar, gold should not be moving much. We should be seeing a breakout (up or down) for gold, dollar and the markets all at the same time.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on daily charts. This should bring USO up to 42.50 over the next few weeks. With the US dollar expected to fall, this should not come as a surprise.”

Market analysis for this week:
Crude (USO) formed a support at 37.77 and bounced. This is also the 200 day moving average and meeting point for 2 trendlines.
On candlesticks, it seems to have formed a piercing pattern. Monday has to close as a bullish candle for this pattern to be reliable. The uptrend from early October 2011 should be ending this week.