Back to 200 - Daily Market Analysis for June 13th 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


With the S&P just a little above its 200 day moving average at 1,255, we are nearing a bounce zone. This is also close to the March lows and the first support that the indexes will hit. Should this support fail, the next support will be at 1,215.
I’m beginning to feel that we might have just passed the high of the year and it will be downhill from now on. If history’s a good guide, we should close the year flat and that will be a best case scenario.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The dollar came back to test resistance at its 50 day moving average. I’m still biased down with a target at 19.75.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Quote from my market analysis on 24th May 2011:
“Gold did a big bullish candle bounce on top of its 50 day moving average on Friday. This is a very bullish sign. Target at 156.”

Quote from my market analysis on June 6th 2011:
“Gold (GLD) seems to be forming a bearish divergence on both MACD and RSI though that does not necessarily mean it will not hit the target at 156. However this shows that this current rally may be running out of steam.”

No change.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Seems to me that it may continue trending upwards in this channel for a while. With the dollar back in a downtrend and inflation rising, the fundamentals favour up. But the huge range of resistance between 36.7 and 38.2 will act as ceiling for some time. Should silver rally above this ranges of resistances, I believe the movement will be drastic and huge.”

No change.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Crude Oil (USO) is bouncing off its 200 day moving average and trendline support. The behaviour of crude is very similar to silver as it seems to be preparing for the next phase of movement be it up or down. I’m favouring up for both now.”

No change.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural gas (UNG) is showing a bearish divergence on RSI and MACD. We should see some price weakness over the next few weeks. But as long as it keeps above the 200 day moving average, my bias is still up.
Natural gas has been lagging all the other commodities. Should Monday close as a bullish candle, it will form a bullish pattern on candlesticks. This should bring UNG up above its resistance at 12.50.