My Market Analysis for 27/01/2010

After observing the market behavior last night, I believe the market is undecided where to go…at least until the FOMC statement is realized tonight at 2.15 EST. Technical-wise, the tank seems to have lost momentum. However as the downtrend is still intact, I believe we going flat to down in the next 1-2 days before this downtrend continues.

My Market Analysis for 25/01/2010

We got the tank that we had been waiting for since the beginning of the year. All 3 indexes had broken decisively through the daily 50 MA last week which means that we are currently in a downtrend. Last Friday, the Dow closed below its monthly support while NASDAQ and S&P closed right at my supports for the month. This means that either we are going to bounce over the next few days back to test the 50 MA (and then continue to tank) or the indexes (NASDAQ and S&P) may gap down or break below their respective supports in the first half of the day and all 3 indexes will continue its downward slide.

Presently, I’m still not sure which way it will go (at least until after the first hour of market open) but I’ll stick with the indexes gapping or moving below my month supports (1091.75 for /ES, 1790.5 for /NQ) and that today and the week will end down.

Recent Run-Up in US Markets is ... Abnormal? - CNBC.com

Recent Run-Up in US Markets is ... Abnormal? - CNBC.com

My Market Analysis for 20/01/2010

The market bounced off my supports yesterday. But it seemed to be too little and with the financials looking weak, I do not think this bounce will follow through today. I’m still sticking with my analysis that the markets are just gyrating with increasingly bigger swings due to the earnings season. We should breakout of this range that the indexes had been in since the start of the year sometime late this week. Currently there are more indicators pointing to a break downwards rather than a break upwards.

I believe that we have passed the high of the month already and from now on, it should be sideways and down.

My bro in the Today newspaper 19th Jan 2010 Page 12

My Market Analysis for 19/01/2010

The market tanked as expected on the last day of the week however it stopped right at the fibo retracement and fibo fan support for the S&P.

S&P daily chart


Dow daily chart


I believe the indexes are all at support now. But seeing how the markets tanked on Friday, it won’t be surprising to see some follow through on the downside today and tomorrow.

With the full year earnings season in full swing now, a lot will depend on earnings (especially the banks) and the market’s expectation of the companies’ earnings. Citibank and Intel will be reporting their earnings today followed by Wells Fargo and Bank of America tomorrow. Goldman and Google will be reporting their earnings on Thursday. We shall see whether their earnings will be as disappointing as JP Morgan’s last Friday.

Personally I feel that the bounce in the last hour of trading on Friday should be the end of last Friday’s tank and we shall see the indexes move back up to their respective highs in the next few days.

However this does not mean that the market will continue its rally but that with the increase in volatility, we shall see bigger and wilder swings in the markets for the next few weeks.

My Market Analysis for 13/01/2010

The S&P completed an evening star on the daily charts yesterday right at the bottom of its upward channel since March 09. Any break below this level will be the start of the overdue market dip that I’ve been expecting since December. The Dow and NASDAQ’s charts don’t look good either with the Dow at the bottom of the uptrending channel since March 09 and NASDAQ forming a bearish candlestick pattern. Volume has also been increasing on bearish days and decreasing on bullish days over the past 2 weeks.