A quick but very important note...
The Sell signals are firmed and it is obvioously clear that the rally has ended. It is time for a correction, one that it fulfilled by the events in Greece (and Europe), at least for now and the months to follow.
ES charts show confrimed sell signals that were given as early as 1.5 months ago. The topping pattern is completed and indicators are compellingly clear.
Find the charts in HERE
The volatility cycle is also starting, with Buy signals confrimed and the VIX has a breakout.
The USD futures (/DX) also clearly show a run into safe haven...
AAPL is a feature... this was a market leader as it accomplished a parabolic run, and now it is clearly correcting, as a leader on the downside as well.
Gold futures point to a make or break on support levels. This snapshot fo the chart was taken at midday yesterday, and today a very strong bounce is lifting gold futures more than $30. This one should be watched closely although I think that a panic would send gold sharply down before a real rally to >$2000.
This is the time to be really aware and perhaps take appropriate action where necessary sooner than later. It will be more volatile from now till September to October as I expect.
Be safe.
The MadScientist
17 May 2012
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.
Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Monday, May 7, 2012
Daily chart for Dow
As you can see from Dow futures, there had been a false upside breakout. Price broke and made a new high on May 1st but promptly dropped and closed below the 50 day moving average. This coupled with a bearish divergence on RSI, Force index & a bearish trendline for RSI is a strong indicator that we are going down for the next few weeks. This bearish divergence is also present for S&P and NASDAQ.
If we are going to continue to rally, all 3 indexes will have to move above their 50 day moving average (13,000 on Dow futures & 1380 for S&P) and stay above.
See following for the daily charts for S&P and NASDAQ
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
Should the market fail to keep above these levels, we should see Dow falling to around 11,140 and S&P going to 1200.
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Crude oil gapped and dropped last Wednesday when the market realised that the economy was not as resilient as they thought it was. UK was in a recession for the first 3 months of the year while Europe was still struggling with the European Union mess. Everyone who believed US was finally on its way to recovery realised that recovery still had a long way to go. Crude oil, which was one of the most important drivers of the economy, got a real 3 day beating.
Daily chart for Gold
As for Gold, it had been building a bullish divergence for a couple of weeks now. It had been going sideways for 2 months now and I believe it should start a new rally in a few days.
The Bulls have left the farm! 8 May 2012
Written on 6th May 2012 but due to technical fault, images were lost and post not updated.
About a month ago, there were clear sell signals in the S&P500 futures, /ES. This was highlighted in my last blog post, and then followed by a dead cat bounce. As of last Friday, after the non-farm payrolls, the bulls have little left and it is about time to watch the bears march in...
So far, the expectations have been playing out accordingly...
ES
The S&P500 futures weekly chart stalled in April, and last week ended with an indication of the start of a new trend... Down. The daily chart had a sell signal last Thursday, and Friday's close reaffirmed it. All other indicators are showing bearing inclinations, and price action targets the previous low as a break point for support. Once a lower low is registered over this week, a top is confirmed, and perhaps it would be a volatile ride down all the way till almost the end of this year.
VIX
The VIX charts are also reaffirming the ES outlook in that the next volatility cycle is upon us. A Buy signal on the weekly is valid and the daily breakout of the last high would confirm.
DX
The USD futures suggest USD upside in the near term. Hinting of lower equities prices.
GC
At this point, I want to specially mention one of two highlights. First being Gold futures. Regardless of what others say, I see that Gold is weakening and not ready for a rally. Strangely, a hint of a quick dip appears to be on the charts. This is observed in the weekly chart from the MACD, and the daily Buy signals that have been anulled.
AAPL
Apple is the other highlight... and this is one obvious tanker.
AAPL had gone parabolic and extreme. The stall was expected, and then we saw Sell signals which saw the daily price work its way to the 55EMA. Immediately after that, AAPL released its results and a huge gap opened. There was no "gap and run" and instead stalled. Then Sell signals appeared which coincided with the weekly trends. Last Friday clearly indicates that AAPL is heading much more down... next stop at 535.
Clearly, I have positions in AAPL.
And also see what one of my teachers wrote about AAPL a couple of days after position was taken:
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Trade well and take care!
The MadScientist
8 May 2012
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.
Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Beware - 29 March 2012
As I write this, our system Sell signals were given last week, and today looks very much like another Sell signal (even at midday). Last's week's signals were not violated and a failed new high closing together with technicals suggest a pullback in the cards, over the next week... albeit a slight relief from the beginning of the month rallies, but at this point, looks like a target of 1260 or a breakout over 1402 on the ES.
Click on image to enlarge.
29 March 2012
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.
Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform
Click on image to enlarge.
The MadScientist
29 March 2012
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.
Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform
Monday, February 27, 2012
Glass ceiling - 27 February 2012
In an analysis done in the late morning of Monday's trading, here is what I am seeing from the S&P500 futures (ES charts)...
The weekly chart (left) has perfected a Sell Setup and hit resistance outlined by July 2011 high. The past two weeks is basically a stall, rather than a pause, and the Force Index is hinting that the rally in recent weeks is not an accumulation phase. Given that the weekly price level is exceeding the maniac levels. This is the first warning that the next couple of months may see a good retracement/correction... now, we just need a reason to start it all rolling, something that should be within the next couple of weeks. (Watch Greece Lightning in mid-March!)
The daily chart (top right) is showing an obvious bearish divergence amid a stall. The daily chart close up (bottom panel) has a new Buy Setup that is just initiated, and needs to end below 1360 today to continue its reversal, making a breakdown of 1350 very highly probably this week. It could well exhaustively break above 1360 and return through the range to breakdown as well. For now, the downside risk is much greater than 2 weeks ago.
I'd leave you with these words: CAUTION x 2
27 February 2012
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.
Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform
The weekly chart (left) has perfected a Sell Setup and hit resistance outlined by July 2011 high. The past two weeks is basically a stall, rather than a pause, and the Force Index is hinting that the rally in recent weeks is not an accumulation phase. Given that the weekly price level is exceeding the maniac levels. This is the first warning that the next couple of months may see a good retracement/correction... now, we just need a reason to start it all rolling, something that should be within the next couple of weeks. (Watch Greece Lightning in mid-March!)
The daily chart (top right) is showing an obvious bearish divergence amid a stall. The daily chart close up (bottom panel) has a new Buy Setup that is just initiated, and needs to end below 1360 today to continue its reversal, making a breakdown of 1350 very highly probably this week. It could well exhaustively break above 1360 and return through the range to breakdown as well. For now, the downside risk is much greater than 2 weeks ago.
I'd leave you with these words: CAUTION x 2
The MadScientist
27 February 2012
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.
Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
The day after Valentines - February 15, 2012
AH!
It seems that when you rock the boat so hard, you tend to be balancing for your dear life quite a bit.
And that is what has been happening to me for the past 2 months or so... it's not been an easy task to balance the extremes of life's journey, but I am glad I am doing ok for now.
I am looking forward to more refinement and streamlining to make things less technical, and more accurate in 2012. This would be in line with the other parts of my career that I am pursing.
I am good at what I do... and I want to be better!
So, what has been happening since the beginning of the year? A nice rally is what it is, if you missed it. Which is kinda tough to do as the rally has turned the tables on last August's rout... or has it?
Again, I find myself available to look at the charts, just before a decisive action is about to take place...
ES futures (S&P500 E-mini futures)
From the chart below, the year started with an impressive rally, and it turned the bearish outlook around having tested and failed to bread the weekly 200MA. The current rally, however, looks tired and near exhaustion. Recent high probability daily sell signals were voided and technical indicators were not too excitable following the mania in the prices just now. Notice that that candles are grey in colour? I am waiting for an impending sell signal, which should appear some time next week, perhaps after an exhaustion spike later this week, if at all. The charts are telling me something: CAUTION.
DX futures (USD futures)
The USD futures are longer term bearish, but weekly prices have been well supported. The daily chart clearly sprung a buy signal, which is suggestive of lower equities in the near term. What I do not see is the news that would spark this USD rally... not yet at least. Perhaps the Greek deadline of 25th March might be it, or the mess leading to the muddle through on 25th March 2012 will contribute?
VXX (VIX futures ETF)
Volatility had been falling well for the past 1.5 months, and the cycle is about to reverse. The weekly charts are stalling and the daily chart has buy signals. It appears to be a ripe time for an increase in volatility, and if so, this warns of an exhausted ES rally into correction phase.
TLT (Bond ETF)
Money hasn't really been pouring into the bond market since late last year. Daily moving average supports have been tested and buy signals given. This suggests a possible start of a bond rally if supports hold.
15 February 2012
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.
Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform
It seems that when you rock the boat so hard, you tend to be balancing for your dear life quite a bit.
And that is what has been happening to me for the past 2 months or so... it's not been an easy task to balance the extremes of life's journey, but I am glad I am doing ok for now.
I am looking forward to more refinement and streamlining to make things less technical, and more accurate in 2012. This would be in line with the other parts of my career that I am pursing.
I am good at what I do... and I want to be better!
So, what has been happening since the beginning of the year? A nice rally is what it is, if you missed it. Which is kinda tough to do as the rally has turned the tables on last August's rout... or has it?
Again, I find myself available to look at the charts, just before a decisive action is about to take place...
ES futures (S&P500 E-mini futures)
From the chart below, the year started with an impressive rally, and it turned the bearish outlook around having tested and failed to bread the weekly 200MA. The current rally, however, looks tired and near exhaustion. Recent high probability daily sell signals were voided and technical indicators were not too excitable following the mania in the prices just now. Notice that that candles are grey in colour? I am waiting for an impending sell signal, which should appear some time next week, perhaps after an exhaustion spike later this week, if at all. The charts are telling me something: CAUTION.
DX futures (USD futures)
The USD futures are longer term bearish, but weekly prices have been well supported. The daily chart clearly sprung a buy signal, which is suggestive of lower equities in the near term. What I do not see is the news that would spark this USD rally... not yet at least. Perhaps the Greek deadline of 25th March might be it, or the mess leading to the muddle through on 25th March 2012 will contribute?
VXX (VIX futures ETF)
Volatility had been falling well for the past 1.5 months, and the cycle is about to reverse. The weekly charts are stalling and the daily chart has buy signals. It appears to be a ripe time for an increase in volatility, and if so, this warns of an exhausted ES rally into correction phase.
TLT (Bond ETF)
Money hasn't really been pouring into the bond market since late last year. Daily moving average supports have been tested and buy signals given. This suggests a possible start of a bond rally if supports hold.
GC (Gold futures)
The gold futures weekly chart is at a downtrending channel resistance, with less than favourable candlesticks over the last 3 weeks. Weekly indicators look weak, and the daily chart has given sell signals with accompanying bearishly looking technical indicators.
Overall, while the longer term picture does seem a tad bullish, the immediate term is suggesting a bearish/corrective outlook. How this correction develops and its fundamental reason for correcting may set the backdrop for months to come. I'd be slightly bearish and very cautious as it is obvious that there is compelling confluence between the equity-USD-volatility-Gold-bond markets, all which point to a turning point and a decent correction in equities.
The MadScientist
15 February 2012
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.
Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Dr Alexander Elder and a New Beginning - Market Analysis for February 13th 2012 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for NASDAQ
Market analysis for this week:
Went for an operation last Monday so didn’t have time to do my market analysis. Was having a hard time overcoming my Nosocomephobia. Thanks to my wife and both sides of my parents, I put my foot down and went for it. Finally got rid of my blocked and swollen nose that had plagued me for the past 7 years. It’s amazing how long I had dragged my feet on this one. I can now breathe properly and I enjoyed the first few nights of uninterrupted sleep in years.
This weekend, spent a weekend with Dr Alexander Elder learning directly from him. It was truly an insightful weekend. I will be incorporating what he taught into my trading systems over the next few weeks. So there may also be some changes to my market analysis over the next few weeks.
Anyway last week was a doji on S&P and Dow weekly charts. Daily charts looks like both S&P and Dow seems to be going for a correction. Nasdaq seems to be the only bullish indicator at the moment but I will not be surprised if there was also a correction especially since all 3 indexes had been rallying straight up since 2012.
I think we should see the start of a correction this Tuesday and it will continue into the week. Support at 1,270 on S&P.
Daily chart for the Dollar
Market analysis for this week:
The dollar should be looking for a bottom over the next few weeks. We may dip one more time before this downtrend reverses. Support at 77.2 on dollar futures.
Daily chart for Gold
Market analysis for this week:
The current rally in gold seems to have ended. We should see a dip this week to around 1,670 before the next leg up.
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil had been trading in a range since November 2011 with a number of false breakouts that never lasted more than a week. All this while, there’s a huge bearish divergence building in crude oil.
I believe the next movement in crude oil will be determined largely by the direction of the dollar. So I will be monitoring the dollar closely over the next few days.
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for NASDAQ
Market analysis for this week:
Went for an operation last Monday so didn’t have time to do my market analysis. Was having a hard time overcoming my Nosocomephobia. Thanks to my wife and both sides of my parents, I put my foot down and went for it. Finally got rid of my blocked and swollen nose that had plagued me for the past 7 years. It’s amazing how long I had dragged my feet on this one. I can now breathe properly and I enjoyed the first few nights of uninterrupted sleep in years.
This weekend, spent a weekend with Dr Alexander Elder learning directly from him. It was truly an insightful weekend. I will be incorporating what he taught into my trading systems over the next few weeks. So there may also be some changes to my market analysis over the next few weeks.
Anyway last week was a doji on S&P and Dow weekly charts. Daily charts looks like both S&P and Dow seems to be going for a correction. Nasdaq seems to be the only bullish indicator at the moment but I will not be surprised if there was also a correction especially since all 3 indexes had been rallying straight up since 2012.
I think we should see the start of a correction this Tuesday and it will continue into the week. Support at 1,270 on S&P.
Daily chart for the Dollar
Market analysis for this week:
The dollar should be looking for a bottom over the next few weeks. We may dip one more time before this downtrend reverses. Support at 77.2 on dollar futures.
Daily chart for Gold
Market analysis for this week:
The current rally in gold seems to have ended. We should see a dip this week to around 1,670 before the next leg up.
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil had been trading in a range since November 2011 with a number of false breakouts that never lasted more than a week. All this while, there’s a huge bearish divergence building in crude oil.
I believe the next movement in crude oil will be determined largely by the direction of the dollar. So I will be monitoring the dollar closely over the next few days.
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