It was in November 2007 that i first decided to learn trading and in Jan 2008 that i went for my first trading course with Conrad Alvin Lim from Adam Khoo Learning Technologies. 3 years and 3 months later, after learning from John Person from National Futures, David Elliot from Wall Street Teachers, Dr Alexander Elder from Spike Traders and reading hundreds of books on trading, trading had improved my life in so many ways that i cannot even imagine living without it.
To me, trading is more than just making money. It is a process of self-discovery where the only person that matters in my own success is myself. I had the good fortune of finding the right trading coach (Conrad) who drilled this concept into my head. It works not just for trading but everything we do. Life is like a game of cards, we are all given a hand but how the game turns out depends on how we play those cards with respect to how others play theirs. So you can have a very bad hand but still win the game. This has changed the way i look at myself and my debilitating illness and also the way i view everyone around me.
Over the rest of the week i will be posting this article from Adam Hamilton from http://www.zealllc.com/ on the benefits of trading. This article was published in Trader's magazine in January 2011 and titled Trading for Everyone. In the article, he shares how trading has benefitted him and improved his life.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Going for the Highs of the Year - Market Analysis for 28th March 2011 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
Dow and S&P futures broke through the 50 day moving average while NASDAQ closed below it on Friday. We are facing some hesitation here as the global problems weigh on the stock market. However at this point I believe the market should go back up to test the high of the year at 1343 on S&P futures. This would be 12379 on Dow and 2403 on NASDAQ.
It is very important that the indexes break these resistance levels. Should the indexes form a double top at these levels, we will be seeing some longer term downtrend in the indexes that should bring S&P down to around 1000.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
I believe that the dollar has started on an uptrend that should bring it up to around 23.50.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold is forming yet another topping pattern on both daily and weekly. However gold had been forming a topping pattern for as long as I can remember. Every bearish setup are only minor dips in an uptrend. We shall see how this one turns out.
Daily chart for Silver (SLV)
Silver is very overbought on both daily and weekly with a bearish setup on daily. Silver had defied all bearish setups and continued to rally. We shall see how this one turns out.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude should be doing an upward consolidation for the next week or so. At this point I do not think crude will rally anymore but with the Arab situation getting from bad to worse, this one may just defy all technical analysis to continue to go higher.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
The 50 day moving average supported Natural Gas well. This upmove should bring us up to 13 on UNG.
Daily chart for Pound Sterling (FXB)
I was alerted to GBP/USD on Friday by a friend. I think this one is going down to test support at 157. It is currently on a longer term uptrend but if the bearish divergence on RSI and MACD holds, it should break this uptrend and bring the GBP/USD ETF (FXB) down to around 153 and then 148.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
Dow and S&P futures broke through the 50 day moving average while NASDAQ closed below it on Friday. We are facing some hesitation here as the global problems weigh on the stock market. However at this point I believe the market should go back up to test the high of the year at 1343 on S&P futures. This would be 12379 on Dow and 2403 on NASDAQ.
It is very important that the indexes break these resistance levels. Should the indexes form a double top at these levels, we will be seeing some longer term downtrend in the indexes that should bring S&P down to around 1000.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
I believe that the dollar has started on an uptrend that should bring it up to around 23.50.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold is forming yet another topping pattern on both daily and weekly. However gold had been forming a topping pattern for as long as I can remember. Every bearish setup are only minor dips in an uptrend. We shall see how this one turns out.
Daily chart for Silver (SLV)
Silver is very overbought on both daily and weekly with a bearish setup on daily. Silver had defied all bearish setups and continued to rally. We shall see how this one turns out.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude should be doing an upward consolidation for the next week or so. At this point I do not think crude will rally anymore but with the Arab situation getting from bad to worse, this one may just defy all technical analysis to continue to go higher.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
The 50 day moving average supported Natural Gas well. This upmove should bring us up to 13 on UNG.
Daily chart for Pound Sterling (FXB)
I was alerted to GBP/USD on Friday by a friend. I think this one is going down to test support at 157. It is currently on a longer term uptrend but if the bearish divergence on RSI and MACD holds, it should break this uptrend and bring the GBP/USD ETF (FXB) down to around 153 and then 148.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Ice Hole Failure or Not? - Market Analysis for 24th March 2011 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
I’m posting this market analysis on a Thursday evening because I’ve just returned from a meeting in Shenzhen and blogspot is banned in the country. Anyway I wanted to post about the high possibility of the market bouncing back to test resistance at the 50 day moving average. Seems like today’s the day. We will see if the market can break pass it or will it form a ice-hole failure and continue the downtrend.
I believe the market may bounce around for a couple of days at around the 1300 level on the S&P before rallying back up the test the high of the year at 1345.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
UUP is forming a bullish divergence on daily for both MACD, Stochastics and RSI. (red lines in bold) I believe UUP is nearing the end of its downtrend and a rally may begin sometime next week. I am keeping this one in my watchlist.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
The sell signal on GLD just saw gold to drop to its 50 day moving average before bouncing back up to form a new high at 1448. We should see gold consolidate over the next few days. Whether it will continue its never-ending rally will depend on the events that will unfold over the next few days.
Daily chart for Silver (SLV)
Silver should be following the movement of gold over the next few days. We should be seeing a consolidation in silver before its next leg up.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude is starting to form a bearish divergence on daily but the rally has not ended yet. We should see another week or two of bullish movement in Crude before it would consolidate.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
The first phase of the rally in UNG is over. This has brought UNG to above its 50 day moving average. Now the 50 day moving average (red line) has to act as support for UNG before we can see more bullish movement and higher prices in Natural Gas futures.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
I’m posting this market analysis on a Thursday evening because I’ve just returned from a meeting in Shenzhen and blogspot is banned in the country. Anyway I wanted to post about the high possibility of the market bouncing back to test resistance at the 50 day moving average. Seems like today’s the day. We will see if the market can break pass it or will it form a ice-hole failure and continue the downtrend.
I believe the market may bounce around for a couple of days at around the 1300 level on the S&P before rallying back up the test the high of the year at 1345.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
UUP is forming a bullish divergence on daily for both MACD, Stochastics and RSI. (red lines in bold) I believe UUP is nearing the end of its downtrend and a rally may begin sometime next week. I am keeping this one in my watchlist.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
The sell signal on GLD just saw gold to drop to its 50 day moving average before bouncing back up to form a new high at 1448. We should see gold consolidate over the next few days. Whether it will continue its never-ending rally will depend on the events that will unfold over the next few days.
Daily chart for Silver (SLV)
Silver should be following the movement of gold over the next few days. We should be seeing a consolidation in silver before its next leg up.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude is starting to form a bearish divergence on daily but the rally has not ended yet. We should see another week or two of bullish movement in Crude before it would consolidate.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
The first phase of the rally in UNG is over. This has brought UNG to above its 50 day moving average. Now the 50 day moving average (red line) has to act as support for UNG before we can see more bullish movement and higher prices in Natural Gas futures.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
WMA March 15 2011 – Nature wins.
S&P500 (/ES / SPY / SPX )
The charts this week have spoken. It is early in the week and it has confirmed that a correction is in place. The daily S&P500 futures chart is committed and will follow through due to the events that happened today. Last Friday’s 8.9 Richter scale earthquake and 10m tsunami in Japan have since ballooned into a possible nuclear disaster, and the markets really do not like that. Spooked they are, as Yoda would say.
At two hours before market open today, the E-mini (/ES) futures are -30. This clearly broke the horizontal support and more importantly the TDST. The indicators (MACD, Stochastics and RSI) either are on the way to break into bearish area or have broken into bearish territory. Closing at this level at the end of this week activates a weekly sell signal that commands a serious correction (to 1100) for the coming weeks, possibly breaking April (2011) as the most bullish month of the year.
I am writing this market update from Melbourne where I am on holiday. My full WMA will be in place over the coming weekend.
For now, watch the USD rally, Crude and Gold to dip, and soft commodities to correct hard.
The MadScientist - 15 March 2011
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
The charts this week have spoken. It is early in the week and it has confirmed that a correction is in place. The daily S&P500 futures chart is committed and will follow through due to the events that happened today. Last Friday’s 8.9 Richter scale earthquake and 10m tsunami in Japan have since ballooned into a possible nuclear disaster, and the markets really do not like that. Spooked they are, as Yoda would say.
At two hours before market open today, the E-mini (/ES) futures are -30. This clearly broke the horizontal support and more importantly the TDST. The indicators (MACD, Stochastics and RSI) either are on the way to break into bearish area or have broken into bearish territory. Closing at this level at the end of this week activates a weekly sell signal that commands a serious correction (to 1100) for the coming weeks, possibly breaking April (2011) as the most bullish month of the year.
I am writing this market update from Melbourne where I am on holiday. My full WMA will be in place over the coming weekend.
For now, watch the USD rally, Crude and Gold to dip, and soft commodities to correct hard.
The MadScientist - 15 March 2011
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Make or Break Week - Market Analysis for 14th March 2011 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
Quote from my market analysis on 1st March 2011:
"On the S&P and NASDAQ, the indexes failed to break above an important resistance level that I call Fadhil’s fibo, after the person who discovered this. However for this setup to complete, we will have to see the market form a double top or lower high which I believe would be happening over the next few days. We might just see the lower high today."
We did indeed see the lower high form over the past 1.5 weeks. However as we move back towards the 50 day moving average, it is normal for the indexes to bounce at the 50 day moving average before continuing the trend down. We did this yesterday.
Next week we shall see whether the indexes bounce or fail the 50 day moving average. If it bounces, we will see new highs in the market and if it fails, we will be moving down to the orange line at around 1218. Currently, I believe there’s a higher probability of the latter happening.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
Bullish divergence on UUP and on Dollar Futures right above an important support level at 21.90. This is very bullish for the dollar. First resistance would be 22.60 followed by 23.40.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold tested resistance at 139.50 thrice and then managed to break above for 2 maybe 3 days before coming down again. Yesterday both my trading systems showed sell signals. We are finally going to see a pullback.
Daily chart for Silver (SLV)
Silver (SLV) hit my Fibo retracement XOP level last Monday. Silver futures my system showed an end of (bullish) trend. We will be seeing a consolidation for silver over the next few weeks.
Daily chart for Crude (USO)
Crude Oil (USO) hit my Fibo retracement XOP level two Fridays ago. Since then, it has gapped and dropped. Yesterday one of my systems showed a sell. We are going to see a consolidation for crude too. Support level at 38.50.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
UNG did a 2 for 1 stock merge this week. This is in the hope that the ETF will attract more investors/traders and better reflect Natural Gas futures. There is a bullish divergence forming on Natural Gas. Although it’s too early to tell, it seems to be finally breaking out of its very long downtrend.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
Quote from my market analysis on 1st March 2011:
"On the S&P and NASDAQ, the indexes failed to break above an important resistance level that I call Fadhil’s fibo, after the person who discovered this. However for this setup to complete, we will have to see the market form a double top or lower high which I believe would be happening over the next few days. We might just see the lower high today."
We did indeed see the lower high form over the past 1.5 weeks. However as we move back towards the 50 day moving average, it is normal for the indexes to bounce at the 50 day moving average before continuing the trend down. We did this yesterday.
Next week we shall see whether the indexes bounce or fail the 50 day moving average. If it bounces, we will see new highs in the market and if it fails, we will be moving down to the orange line at around 1218. Currently, I believe there’s a higher probability of the latter happening.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
Bullish divergence on UUP and on Dollar Futures right above an important support level at 21.90. This is very bullish for the dollar. First resistance would be 22.60 followed by 23.40.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold tested resistance at 139.50 thrice and then managed to break above for 2 maybe 3 days before coming down again. Yesterday both my trading systems showed sell signals. We are finally going to see a pullback.
Daily chart for Silver (SLV)
Silver (SLV) hit my Fibo retracement XOP level last Monday. Silver futures my system showed an end of (bullish) trend. We will be seeing a consolidation for silver over the next few weeks.
Daily chart for Crude (USO)
Crude Oil (USO) hit my Fibo retracement XOP level two Fridays ago. Since then, it has gapped and dropped. Yesterday one of my systems showed a sell. We are going to see a consolidation for crude too. Support level at 38.50.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
UNG did a 2 for 1 stock merge this week. This is in the hope that the ETF will attract more investors/traders and better reflect Natural Gas futures. There is a bullish divergence forming on Natural Gas. Although it’s too early to tell, it seems to be finally breaking out of its very long downtrend.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Breaking to New Highs? - Market Analysis for 1st March 2011 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The market had been moving in a tight fashion for the past 2 months. This reminds of the period around 2006-07 where volatility dropped to an unprecedented level of around 10. This reflects the lack of fear in the market. Before last week, volatility was at 15 but had gapped and spiked to 23 due to the events in the Middle East.
On the S&P and NASDAQ, the indexes failed to break above an important resistance level that I call Fadhil’s fibo, after the person who discovered this. However for this setup to complete, we will have to see the market form a double top or lower high which I believe would be happening over the next few days. We might just see the lower high today.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
The dollar is very close to it’s all time low again. This would be 22 on UUP. The is a bullish divergence setup for this. Wait for indication of support and enter for a run up to around 23.3.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
From my market analysis from 22nd Jan 2011:
Crude did a failure pattern and gapped to below the 50 day moving average. This is a very bearish signal. This is accompanied by a bearish divergence in RSI and MACD. We should see USO going down to around 36 in the next few weeks.
Crude (USO) indeed dropped to test support at 36 twice regardless of the situation in the Middle East. It failed to break below 36 which is a strong support level. We should see USO going up to 41.84 within the next 2 months. This should be around 120 for spot Crude.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
Natural Gas is on it’s final dip. Fundamentally and technically, it is poised to rally. However this is only good as a long term investment because this ETF really take its time to move.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold did a failure pattern. I believe it is poised to move to new highs over the next few weeks. Target at 155.60. Take note that commodities are on a bullish cycle now until around 2015. It should be quite common to see gold making new highs over the next few years.
Daily chart for Silver (SLV)
Silver (SLV) made new highs yesterday. This reversed the earlier bearish divergence setup in January 2011. We should be seeing SLV at 35.30 soon.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The market had been moving in a tight fashion for the past 2 months. This reminds of the period around 2006-07 where volatility dropped to an unprecedented level of around 10. This reflects the lack of fear in the market. Before last week, volatility was at 15 but had gapped and spiked to 23 due to the events in the Middle East.
On the S&P and NASDAQ, the indexes failed to break above an important resistance level that I call Fadhil’s fibo, after the person who discovered this. However for this setup to complete, we will have to see the market form a double top or lower high which I believe would be happening over the next few days. We might just see the lower high today.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
The dollar is very close to it’s all time low again. This would be 22 on UUP. The is a bullish divergence setup for this. Wait for indication of support and enter for a run up to around 23.3.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
From my market analysis from 22nd Jan 2011:
Crude did a failure pattern and gapped to below the 50 day moving average. This is a very bearish signal. This is accompanied by a bearish divergence in RSI and MACD. We should see USO going down to around 36 in the next few weeks.
Crude (USO) indeed dropped to test support at 36 twice regardless of the situation in the Middle East. It failed to break below 36 which is a strong support level. We should see USO going up to 41.84 within the next 2 months. This should be around 120 for spot Crude.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
Natural Gas is on it’s final dip. Fundamentally and technically, it is poised to rally. However this is only good as a long term investment because this ETF really take its time to move.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold did a failure pattern. I believe it is poised to move to new highs over the next few weeks. Target at 155.60. Take note that commodities are on a bullish cycle now until around 2015. It should be quite common to see gold making new highs over the next few years.
Daily chart for Silver (SLV)
Silver (SLV) made new highs yesterday. This reversed the earlier bearish divergence setup in January 2011. We should be seeing SLV at 35.30 soon.
Monday, February 21, 2011
WMA 21 February 2011
TIP
The weekly TDST was not broken at the beginning of 2011, and a mild corrective rally was to resume the primary trend. However, the indicators show a lot of weakness in TIP. The daily chart is breaking out and appears that a rally should be in place soon.
Verdict: Trend unclear for now.
JNK
Weekly chart retraced and is rallied. The Daily chart had buy signals at the beginning of the year. Recently, the MACD crossed (a bullish sign ). The bullishness is continuing although a bearish divergence is noted on both the weekly and daily charts.
Verdict: bullish with risks of correcting
/HG
Copper weekly was has a bearish divergence. Looks like an interim top. The daily chart shows that the bearish divergence correction for copper has already begun.
Verdict: Copper prices is in correction.
The leading indicators are not giving a clear signal, but it appears to be mildly bullish with a lot of downside risk based on bearish divergences.
/DX
The USD futures weekly at the beginning of 2011 confirmed that there was no breakout of the TDST, and so the primary trend remains for a weaker USD. In recent weeks, this is panning out and there should be another 3 weeks of USD decline. The daily chart confirms a bearish trend is in place since last week and should continue for at least another week, although a bullish divergence appears to be forming.
Verdict: USD is bearish, support at 76, which is likely to be a temporary hold.
/CL
Crude weekly has been in a rising uptrend with healthy indicators. This week, with the weekend’s Libya unrest, crude has broken out of the rising channel with very strong indicators following. How this week would end will determine the outlook for weeks and months to come. The daily chart had (surprisingly) a buy signal last Thursday after bouncing off the rishing channel support.
Verdict: a new uptrend is in place.
/GC
Weekly chart shows a retracement in Gold that bounced off the weekly uptrendline. The oscillators are showing support to have one more rally to make a higher high. The daily chart supports the weekly there is a now rally in Gold for at least till the end of this week.
Verdict: Gold is very bullish, correction is postponed.
/ES
Weekly ES futures chart indicates a rather overbought condition but is likely to continue for about another 2-3 weeks. The daily chart is way overdone in the bearish divergence and the RSI indicates that it is about time for a correction. With the current unrest in Libya, it does not surprise if the top has just been reached.
Verdict: Possible interim top, time for correction.
The weekly TDST was not broken at the beginning of 2011, and a mild corrective rally was to resume the primary trend. However, the indicators show a lot of weakness in TIP. The daily chart is breaking out and appears that a rally should be in place soon.
Verdict: Trend unclear for now.
JNK
Weekly chart retraced and is rallied. The Daily chart had buy signals at the beginning of the year. Recently, the MACD crossed (a bullish sign ). The bullishness is continuing although a bearish divergence is noted on both the weekly and daily charts.
Verdict: bullish with risks of correcting
/HG
Copper weekly was has a bearish divergence. Looks like an interim top. The daily chart shows that the bearish divergence correction for copper has already begun.
Verdict: Copper prices is in correction.
The leading indicators are not giving a clear signal, but it appears to be mildly bullish with a lot of downside risk based on bearish divergences.
/DX
The USD futures weekly at the beginning of 2011 confirmed that there was no breakout of the TDST, and so the primary trend remains for a weaker USD. In recent weeks, this is panning out and there should be another 3 weeks of USD decline. The daily chart confirms a bearish trend is in place since last week and should continue for at least another week, although a bullish divergence appears to be forming.
Verdict: USD is bearish, support at 76, which is likely to be a temporary hold.
/CL
Crude weekly has been in a rising uptrend with healthy indicators. This week, with the weekend’s Libya unrest, crude has broken out of the rising channel with very strong indicators following. How this week would end will determine the outlook for weeks and months to come. The daily chart had (surprisingly) a buy signal last Thursday after bouncing off the rishing channel support.
Verdict: a new uptrend is in place.
/GC
Weekly chart shows a retracement in Gold that bounced off the weekly uptrendline. The oscillators are showing support to have one more rally to make a higher high. The daily chart supports the weekly there is a now rally in Gold for at least till the end of this week.
Verdict: Gold is very bullish, correction is postponed.
/ES
Weekly ES futures chart indicates a rather overbought condition but is likely to continue for about another 2-3 weeks. The daily chart is way overdone in the bearish divergence and the RSI indicates that it is about time for a correction. With the current unrest in Libya, it does not surprise if the top has just been reached.
Verdict: Possible interim top, time for correction.
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