Gold at 2000! - Market Analysis for January 30th 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“The market continued to blast off to new highs the whole week. No bad news coming out from Europe could dampen this rally. This is the most bullish January that I’ve seen since I’ve started trading 4 years ago. The market closed on Friday with a slightly over-bought level on RSI at 1311.25 on S&P futures.
With one more week to go for the January barometer, I do not think anything other than an outright default by a sovereign country can turn this month into a bearish month. There are signals that this rally is getting exhausted, but this will only be a dip in a longer term uptrend.
As for my first target at 1,350, I’m now expecting a dip sometime next week. Let’s see whether the market could reach this level first. I think the dip should come in sometime next week. Support at 1,260 on S&P futures.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market closed slightly up for last week.
We had been moving up almost every day since mid December. All dips had been 1-2 days events with the market turning back up by the end of the day.
However as the market had closed Friday just below a range of resistances, I believe we should be having a minor dip starting this week with support at 1,260 on S&P futures.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.”

Market analysis for this week:
For the next few months, I reckon the movement of gold will be influenced by gold. Or should I say inversely proportional to the bullish breakout of gold.
However I’m expecting a bounce this week to around 79.80 on dollar futures. This does not change the current downtrend.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“With a falling dollar, gold and all other commodities will be expected to rally. However gold had formed a wedge (yellow lines) and if it breaks upwards and out of the wedge, and i expect it to do so, we may see 2000 gold over the next few months.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold should dominate the headlines over the next few weeks as it breaks above the huge wedge that had been building up since Sept 2011. We will hit 2000 gold over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil gapped and dropped on Friday. It closed the week just below it’s 50 day moving average. With this drop, the chart patterns seem to show that crude might not be able to rally above resistance at 39.50 as it had failed to rally above 4 times over the past 2.5 months.
Once it drops below it’s 200 day moving average at 37.20, I will take it that the rally had failed. New target would be 36.10 and then 35.10 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil is still the same.

Hitting New Highs! - Market Analysis for January 23rd 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“Last Friday, the market hit sequential setup candle 9 and made an intraday dip. I took this as the end of the first leg of rally and expected it to dip a few days before continuing the uptrend. Today, we are making new highs on pre-market futures. Take note that all these against the backdrop of France’s downgrade and the persistent threat of an expanded European crisis. This only shows how bullish the sentiment had been this past 2 months.
I had been long since early December and it seems that we will close with a bullish January. We might still dip later this week to test support at 1,260 before continuing this rally to my target at 1,350 on S&P.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market continued to blast off to new highs the whole week. No bad news coming out from Europe could dampen this rally. This is the most bullish January that I’ve seen since I’ve started trading 4 years ago. The market closed on Friday with a slightly over-bought level on RSI at 1311.25 on S&P futures.
With one more week to go for the January barometer, I do not think anything other than an outright default by a sovereign country can turn this month into a bearish month. There are signals that this rally is getting exhausted, but this will only be a dip in a longer term uptrend.
As for my first target at 1,350, I’m now expecting a dip sometime next week. Let’s see whether the market could reach this level first. I think the dip should come in sometime next week. Support at 1,260 on S&P futures.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar dropped as expected last week. I’m expecting follow through for this week. Target still the same.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold gapped above resistance last Wednesday and rallied. On weekly charts, gold had been very bullish too. I feel that we are very close to a bottom for gold. Should the huge bearish divergence on the dollar start moving, we will see gold gap and rally.”

Market analysis for this week:
With a falling dollar, gold and all other commodities will be expected to rally. However gold had formed a wedge (yellow lines) and if it breaks upwards and out of the wedge, and i expect it to do so, we may see 2000 gold over the next few months.


Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Market analysis for crude oil still the same. Target at 45.82 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil gapped and dropped on Friday. It closed the week just below it’s 50 day moving average. With this drop, the chart patterns seem to show that crude might not be able to rally above resistance at 39.50 as it had failed to rally above 4 times over the past 2.5 months.
Once it drops below it’s 200 day moving average at 37.20, I will take it that the rally had failed. New target would be 36.10 and then 35.10 on USO.

Gunning for a Bullish January Barometer - Market Analysis by Singaporeseeds for January 17th 2011

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis for last week:
“The market went flat after the New Year gap. It seems to be déjà vu as 2012 started almost exactly the same way as 2011.
At the moment, the dollar is dictating the movement of the markets with dollar inversely related to the market. Last Friday saw the end of the uptrend in the dollar rally so we should see some movement this week onwards.
I’m still bullish on the market with targets at 1,350 for the month and 1,553 for the year, but if the S&P drops below its 200 day moving average support at around 1,253, the trend would have changed to bearish and we might close with a bearish January. Should this happen, we are in for a bearish 2012.”

Market analysis for this week:
Having a great time in Bali and totally forgot about my market analysis until a while ago. I had closed all my positions just before I left for Bali even though I thought the market had a little more rally to go. I never could trust the internet connectivity in Indonesia and did not want to risk being disconnected with open positions for a week.
Last Friday, the market hit sequential setup candle 9 and made an intraday dip. I took this as the end of the first leg of rally and expected it to dip a few days before continuing the uptrend. Today, we are making new highs on pre-market futures. Take note that all these against the backdrop of France’s downgrade and the persistent threat of an expanded European crisis. This only shows how bullish the sentiment had been this past 2 months.
I had been long since early December and it seems that we will close with a bullish January. We might still dip later this week to test support at 1,260 before continuing this rally to my target at 1,350 on S&P.

Daily chart for the dollar (UUP)


Market Analysis from last week:
“The uptrend in the dollar has ended last Friday. The dollar has rallied for 2 months without any significant pullback and had stopped just below a range of resistances. We should see a pullback starting from this week.
Target at 22 and then 21.70.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Market Analysis from last week:
“Gold hit my first target last Thursday and stopped below the 200 MA. As long as the dollar is on an uptrend, it will put bearish pressure on commodity prices. With the dollar expected to dip from this week onwards, I believe we should see gold rally.
There is now a pennant pattern on daily charts. Gold would have to break resistance at its 200 MA and then the pennant resistance at 165 on GLD before a strong uptrend would emerge. I believe this movement will start sometime this week onwards.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold gapped above resistance last Wednesday and rallied. On weekly charts, gold had been very bullish too. I feel that we are very close to a bottom for gold. Should the huge bearish divergence on the dollar start moving, we will see gold gap and rally.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude gapped up and faded the gap last week. On daily charts, there’s a huge bearish divergence on MACD and RSI.
However I believe crude prices are now very dependent on news coming from Iran and the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran continues to play mind games with US, bearish divergence or not, we will see crude spike to a new high in no time.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil still the same. Target at 45.82 on USO.

Dominance of the US Dollar - Market Analysis for January 6th 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“We started 2011 at around 1256 on S&P and after rallying to 1373 and then dropping to 1070, it ended the year almost unchanged at 1253. This is against the backdrop of the European crisis and the softening economy of China.
We ended the year right at the 200 day moving average on the S&P.
With the market opening today, everyone will be looking at the January Barometer to determine the direction of the market for the year. Volume will still be light for the rest of the month.
I believe that we are at the beginning of a huge rally that will last for the next 3-4 years. We might dip one or two more times but the S&P should not dip more than 1200.
First target at 1350 and then 1553 for the year 2012.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market went flat after the New Year gap. It seems to be déjà vu as 2012 started almost exactly the same way as 2011.
At the moment, the dollar is dictating the movement of the markets with dollar inversely related to the market. Last Friday saw the end of the uptrend in the dollar rally so we should see some movement this week onwards.
I’m still bullish on the market with targets at 1,350 for the month and 1,553 for the year, but if the S&P drops below its 200 day moving average support at around 1,253, the trend would have changed to bearish and we might close with a bearish January. Should this happen, we are in for a bearish 2012.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is showing a topping pattern on daily charts. On weekly charts, it may continue to hold up for another week or two, but not more. Target is still the same at 22 and 21.70 on UUP.”

Market analysis for this week:
The uptrend in the dollar has ended last Friday. The dollar has rallied for 2 months without any significant pullback and had stopped just below a range of resistances. We should see a pullback starting from this week.
Target at 22 and then 21.70.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“After the big drop in December 2011, gold should bounce. There’s a bullish divergence pattern over the last 2 weeks. This should bring gold up to around 157 and then 165 over the next 2 weeks. However the longer therm trend is still down.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold hit my first target last Thursday and stopped below the 200 MA. As long as the dollar is on an uptrend, it will put bearish pressure on commodity prices. With the dollar expected to dip from this week onwards, I believe we should see gold rally.
There is now a pennant pattern on daily charts. Gold would have to break resistance at its 200 MA and then the pennant resistance at 165 on GLD before a strong uptrend would emerge. I believe this movement will start sometime this week onwards.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil is more bullish than ever, having bounced off it’s 50 and then 200 day moving average in the past week. I believe we should see a dip next week with support at around 37.50 on USO before breaking resistance at 39.50.
Final target will be around 45.20 in 3 month’s time. This will be around 113 on crude oil futures. Expect gasoline prices to increase.”

Market analysis for this week:
Crude gapped up and faded the gap last week. On daily charts, there’s a huge bearish divergence on MACD and RSI.
However I believe crude prices are now very dependent on news coming from Iran and the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran continues to play mind games with US, bearish divergence or not, we will see crude spike to a new high in no time.

January's First week - 5 Jan 2012

It's been a long break... and so many things are happening in my life just now... all good things though!

Happy New Year to one and all!

If you are wondering what's up with this market movements up and down and it seems that the story is changing on a weekly basis - well, you are right! I am slightly leaning on the the bearish side just now, being cautious (not sceptical) about the rallies that occur. As it turned into 2012, the S&P500 futures (/ES E-mini) opened with bit of a bang, gapping up and giving many a bullish hope for 2012.

Singaporeseeds sent me a message: "Gap gap!" on the 3rd of January 2012.
I replied to him... "Watch it close (the gap)!"

Two days later... it looks like it will happen as this gap is NOT what is typically known as a "gap-and-run".

Here's what I see in the ES charts...

The weekly chart above has a bullish candlestick pattern as Christmas came... but it scored that on low volume. Currently, there is no strong underlying trend and the weekly MACD appears to be attempting a bullish breakout. Emphasis on "attempting"
The daily ES chart on the right panel has bullish MACD, again clearly based on low volume trading. This is followed by a gap up on the first trading day of 2012. The daily ES tested the 200MA FIVE times in the past three months, and it just did a gap up on low volume. This already hints of a "gap and close" rather than a "gap and run". To some other chart artists (aka chart technicians), it may be what is referred to as a "blow-off top".

Well, the 30 mins intraday ES chart show this "gap and close" clearer, with immediate support at 1260-1262 which is where the current ES is holding at time of writing/analysis. What happens thereafter will show hand as soon as the gap is closed at 1250, which is confluent with the Fibonacci XOP.

There are times that a market trends... and other times that the market just fluctuates. This is one of those times the latter takes precedence. Hence, my caution.

Watch it over the next few days...
Oh yeah... if anyone noticed, the Euro is being thrashed yet again.


The MadScientist
5 January 2012

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

The First Market Analysis for 2012; January Barometer will be bullish! - Market Analysis for January 3rd 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“The past week had been one of the most bullish for the past few months. This is just the start of the huge bullish divergence pattern that appeared on the charts a few weeks ago. This should bring the S&P up to around 1,350 over the next 2-4 weeks. This will be around 12,750 for the Dow.”

Market analysis for this week:

What a year!
We started 2011 at around 1256 on S&P and after rallying to 1373 and then dropping to 1070, it ended the year almost unchanged at 1253. This is against the backdrop of the European crisis and the softening economy of China.
We ended the year right at the 200 day moving average on the S&P.
With the market opening today, everyone will be looking at the January Barometer to determine the direction of the market for the year. Volume will still be light for the rest of the month.
I believe that we are at the beginning of a huge rally that will last for the next 3-4 years. We might dip one or two more times but the S&P should not dip more than 1200.
First target at 1350 and then 1553 for the year 2012.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“Longer term weekly chart is showing that the dollar will continue to go up, but on daily, it shows down. We might see some weakness in the dollar over the next 2 weeks. First target at 22, second at 21.70.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar is showing a topping pattern on daily charts. On weekly charts, it may continue to hold up for another week or two, but not more. Target is still the same at 22 and 21.70 on UUP.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold is still consolidating after the huge movement. It may trend down to 145 on GLD over the next few weeks. It should move in a range between 145 and 158.50 for the next 1-2 months.”

Market analysis for this week:
After the big drop in December 2011, gold should bounce. There’s a bullish divergence pattern over the last 2 weeks. This should bring gold up to around 157 and then 165 over the next 2 weeks. However the longer therm trend is still down.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Crude oil is more bullish than ever, having bounced off it’s 50 and then 200 day moving average in the past week. I believe we should see a dip next week with support at around 37.50 on USO before breaking resistance at 39.50.
Final target will be around 45.20 in 3 month’s time. This will be around 113 on crude oil futures. Expect gasoline prices to increase.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil is still the same.