Off it goes! - Market Analysis for 31st March 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Quote from last week:
“We are still looking at a stimulus to bring the markets to its next leg either up or down. As long as the S&P does not break support at 1320 I’m going to be upwardly biased with target at 1425 for the S&P.”
The market hit Fibo trendline support on Tuesday and moved along the support until Friday, when I bounced up and closed above the 50 day moving average. S&P closed below 1320 for 2 days but could not hold below and is now way above. Market futures are now moving up, indicating bullishness and the start of the next rally. However I do not think this rally will last. First target at 1,366 then 1,425 on the S&P.

Daily chart the Dollar (UUP)


The dollar dropped below its 50 day moving average on Friday. Seems like the dead cat bounce is over. Target at 19.75 for UUP.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Analysis for gold (GLD) is still the same.
Quote from last week:
“Gold did a big bullish candle bounce on top of its 50 day moving average on Friday. This is a very bullish sign. Target at 156.”

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Silver (SLV) is approaching resistance at 37.48 and then 38.20. It has to either gap or break above these two levels before it can continue on its rally. This I think will happen over the next 2 weeks.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


The bullish hammer did not happen as the bullish candle Monday did not happen last week. USO did a consolidation for the rest of the week. We should see a bullish pattern sometime this week.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


This is it. UNG gapped above its 50 day moving average and is now just below its 200 day moving average. With the two most important moving averages converging soon, we should see some kind of price action this week. I’m thinking up.

Daily chart for ADM


ADM tend to show very good moving average movements. David Elliot calls it Moving Average Patterns (MAP).
I followed ADM up when it bounced off its 200 then 50 day moving averages in Jan and then down again to its 200 day moving average when it did the triple top and bearish divergence in late April. Now I think ADM had bottomed out when it bounced off a range of supports from 30.60 to 31 and also the Fibo trendline support.
Target at 34.20

Daily chart for MSFT


MSFT tend to show very good trendline and wedge movements. However I entered this one based on the bullish divergence and Chris’s trading system. I’m expecting MSFT to move back up to test its trendline at 25.70.

Market Commentary 25 May 2011

Market commentary

The markets just cannot seem to keep the head up above the water... An early effort of the S&P500 came to naught at the end of the day, and today during Asian trading hours, the S&P500 futures are trading lower. European, particularly Greek debt restructuring is affecting markets such that the Euro is being dumped for USD and Gold.

Yesterday's market close confirms the interim top on the S&P500 (futures) with a trend change pattern completed. This trend change pattern is a typical lower high, lower low that is repeated twice and breaks the final low.

Watch commodities struggle with a rising USD, and Precious metal move up with USD rally, while equity markets move downwards over the next few weeks...

MadScientist
25 May 2011

Beginning of all Rallies - Market Analysis for 24th May 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


The S&P closed as a doji again last week. This shows indecision in the markets. It was just as I described, rest week for the markets. Nothing much has changed.
We are still looking at a stimulus to bring the markets to its next leg either up or down. As long as the S&P does not break support at 1320 I’m going to be upwardly biased with target at 1425 for the S&P.

Daily chart for the dollar (UUP)


We should see the dollar bounce some more to around 22. This is still a dead cat bounce and I will start entering on puts once it reaches around 22. This should be sometime in early July.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Gold did a big bullish candle bounce on top of its 50 day moving average on Friday. This is a very bullish sign. Target at 156.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Silver bounced off its old upward channel support last Tuesday and kept above it since then. We should be beginning our next leg up soon.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


All commodities are showing signs of strength late last week and crude is not an exception. It bounced off its 200 day moving average and closed as a hammer on Friday. Should Monday close as a big bullish candle, we should be seeing crude start on the next leg of its rally.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural Gas bounced off support at 10.50. Natural gas had been going flat for the longest of time. Let’s see if this bounce has enough steam to bring it above its 200 day moving average at around 11.50.

WMA 23 May 2011 - At decision point

TIP
Weekly TIP chart looks to be weakening after a short term rally. The Daily chart has had 2 recent SELL Signals and indicators are favourable for a tank. RSI is <50, Force Index is <0. JNK
JNK Weekly indicates another week or two of JNK rally in the face of a bearish divergence. The Daily has a week of rally to possibly break the previous high of 40.95. There is a rising trendline and I expect that a matching top would consequently result in a break of the trendline. Weekly Countdown has one more to complete, and Setup two more to complete.

/HG
Weekly Copper futures looks like a bounce for the next week under weak indicators. The Daily Copper futures bounced off the Fibo fan and indicators are supporting this near term rally. A BUY signal was given mid-week and the coming week looks to entend gains. Current target is the confluent TDST and the uptrendline resistance.


According to the leading indicators, we are likely to see a mild rally this week, and probably followed by a stronger movement downwards.
 

/DX
The Weekly US Dollar futures are showing a technical rally on an oversold USD underlying heavy volume buying. The Daily USD futures chart is very bullish after a rally that retraced and bounced off a channel support (Setup began at the bounce) and long term support level. The immediate resistance looks to be broken this coming week, and if so, would put pressure on equity and precious metals market.

/CL
The Weekly Crude futures chart shows the recent weakness, but it did not follow through. The Daily crude futures chart is interesting as it also did not follow through the tanking but stalled and consolidated at the channel resistance turned support. Strength is returning and a consolidation should be in force for a while. It remains to be seen when the rally would start with a potentially strong USD.

/GC
Weekly Gold futures chart show a recent near parabolic rally, and then a quick retracement to the COP (61.8% retracement). The weekly chart broke the uptrendline intraweekly and closed above it, qualifying as valid bounce. The Daily Gold futures chart has registered nice bounce and indicators are strengthening fast. This is indicating that Gold is starting another rally leg.

/ES
The Weekly E-minis (S&P500) futures show a long mature rally that has so far stalled for the last 3 months, making weaker attempts for a higher high. The indicators are weakening but an interim top is only indicative. On the daily charts, the futures appear to be in a decision point, having bounced off the uptrending channel and also not breaking a downtrending resistance. While all the indicators are showing a probably break of the channel, any moves next week is likely to be a bigger move that should last a longer time. Similar to the enigma of the USD futures and Gold futures, it is reflected in the S&P500 futures too.

The MadScientist - 22 May 2011

Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

The beginning of a trend - WMA 16 May 2011

Testing a new format for my technical analysis of the market charts...

/DX (USD Futures)
Weekly DX (USD futures) chart show a three outside up candlestick pattern (http://www.fxwords.com/b/bullish-three-outside-up-candlestick.html) which is a powerful reversal pattern on the weekly charts. This comes along with a significant increase in volume, and is followed by a recovery in RSI and STO. The MACD is still lagging for this case.
Daily DX chart is showing very bullish signals. From 5-7th May, there was a triple doji (http://blog.nobletrading.com/2008/11/doji-tri-star-candlestick-pattern.html) which was followed by a very bullish candle. This candle started with a strong RSI, STO and with heavy volume. A MACD crossover followed the next day as price broke through the first resistance at 75. As of the end of the week, price is at 75.90, just at another resistance level. A strong BUY signal was triggered on 8th May and the trade is still good.

The current Setup broke above the TSDT on the 5th candle and tested twice over the next two days, only to end the 7th candle at a new recent high.
The USD appears to be very bullish in the weeks to come. With this, a couple of things are likely to happen, with commodities taking the first hit, possibly followed by equities as both these classes were rallying over the recent months due to a weak USD.

/CL (Crude Futures)
Weekly CL (Crude futures) chart shows a very strong multi-week rally that ended very abruptly which ended 9 weeks of gain within a week. This sudden correction had heavy volumes but the RSI bounced off the 50 level. The STO is indicating more bearishness. However, price is now at a previous uptrending channel resistance/support.
A new setup in the opposing direction has started with a strong SELL signal triggered.
Daily CL chart shows a quick correction over 4 days and was followed by a short retracement rally which gains were erased in a day. Currently, price is at various support levels with RSI, STO and MACD looking rather bearish. While bearish in overall tone, it remains to be seen if price will follow through by breaking the multiple support levels. This is a “wait and see” case, particularly as the open interest levels are dropping significantly (34000->21000) together with price.

/GC (Gold futures)
Weekly GC (Gold futures) chart is showing an extreme maniac price move that is completed with a three outside down candlestick pattern. The indicators are weakening and a retracement to 1435 should be in place in the coming weeks.
Daily Gold chart is showing a mature rally that has weakening indicators and a Strong SELL signal last week is still intact. Gold appears to be primed for a dip in the coming weeks, at least to the support at 1400.

/ES (S&P futures)
Weekly ES (S&P500 futures) chart is showing a bearish reversal candlestick pattern with stubborn technical indicators.
Daily ES chart show a weakened rally ending and an increasing probability that the interim top is in place with increasingly bearish indicators. It is very likely that the S&P500 will be correcting in the weeks to come, possibly to 1200.

The MadScientist - 16 May 2011

Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

Markets and Commodities Rest Week - Market Analysis for 17th May 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


That was interesting….the indexes closed on the weekly chart as a doji. We were bouncing off support at around 1340 on S&P on Wednesday to Friday. Looks like the indexes are poised for the next leg up soon. However all these had been happening with a bearish divergence on MACD.
The support levels at 1340 on S&P and the 50 moving average currently at around 1325 will be crucial. If these 2 supports fails to hold, we might be going for a bit of a drop with the next support coming in at 1270 and then 1215.
If we bounce off to make a new high, we will be looking at 1554 by the end of the year.

Daily chart for Dollar


The dollar (UUP) bounced back to its 50 day moving average and closed above it on Friday. We are looking at the next resistance level at 22. I believe we will retrace back to 22 and maybe slightly beyond that before reversing back down to 19.75. We are currently in a dead cat bounce.
This movement should be inversely mirrored by the current downward movement in almost all commodity prices. And when the dollar starts to turn back down, commodity prices are expected to enter its last crazy bullish phase and shoot through the roof.

Daily chart for Gold


Daily chart for Silver


Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are going through a few weeks of weakness as the dollar bounces back up. The first support for gold will be at 140 then its 50 day moving average at around 142.50. For silver, this will be at 32, 30 then 28. I believe this is a dip in an uptrend and we have to get ready for a last crazy rally soon.

Daily chart for Crude Oil


Crude oil (USO) bounced off support at around 38.50 again on Thursday and Friday. We are now ready for a bounce up to resistance at 41.4 and 42. As Thursday closed as a doji, Friday as a hammer…a bullish candle on Monday will signal the start of the dead cat bounce.

Daily chart Natural Gas


Natural Gas (UNG) had been bouncing off rock bottom support at around 10.50 since end of October. Despite all the bullish divergences and signals, any rally had failed to push it beyond its 200 day moving average. This is one of the most bullish signals for any stock or ETFs. Now with the 200 day moving average closing in on the 50 day moving average, the chances of this happening is increasing. We shall see whether we’ll finally cross the 200 this week.

End of Commodities Run? - Market Analysis for 9th May 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


The indexes came back to test the 20 day moving average before bouncing off on Friday. I believe we will be testing the 50 day moving average this week before bouncing to making another high.
The longer trend is still up and May should close as a bullish month.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The dollar made a 2 day bounce on Thursday and Friday. I believe this was the spark which caused a drop in almost all commodity prices over the market. The downtrend is still intact but we should see a bounce up to 22 on UUP. My final downward target for UUP would be 19.70.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Gold is going back to restest support at 140 while silver’s support is at around 32. Such parabolic runs usually end with a bang. Hence I’m expecting a volatile final spike that should break the high at 153 for gold and 48 for silver before it reverses into a long downtrend.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Crude oil (USO) closed at a support level on Friday. Monday we shall see whether this support holds for USO. Next support at around 37.50. I believe a bounce should happen with resistance at 42 before crude continues on the downtrend.

Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural gas hit resistance at its 200 moving average at 12 before reversing back down to its 50 day moving average. It is now between 2 important moving averages and the side that it moves out from will determine its movement for the next few months.