Christmas Rally Begins! - Market Analysis for 20th December 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


This is one of those times where it’s difficult to make a decision on the market. There are conflicting signals in the market and with volume so low, I couldn’t figure out which one would be more reliable. Low volume really screws up our technical analysis. Most experienced traders that I know are already out or getting out of the market. Maybe I should switch to a 2 day chart or more.

Anyway this coming week will be the start of the Christmas rally and I’m having a feeling that we might not have it this year. We shall see how it goes this week.

Daily chart for the dollar (UUP)


The dollar is moving according to the fibo retracement. We might see some fierce resistance at 23.80 but other than that, it should be a nice rally up.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Gold is making a consolidation move. It is still on a huge bullish trend with no end in sight though. Target at 143.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Silver’s parabolic trend is far from over. I believe its uptrend should end around the same time as gold’s. Anyway I’ve got a target at 35 and strong support at 25. Once it breaks 25, this uptrend would be over. I believe now should be a good time to enter on silver.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Crude is forming a consolidation pattern. Target is still at 41.80.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural gas broke below its uptrending channel. This means that it might test support at 5.20 once more. At this point, I do not think it would make a new low. Longer term charts are very bullish with shorter term price weakness.

Pre Santa Claus Rally – Market Analysis for Week beginning 13th December 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


S&P and NASDAQ had broken to new highs while Dow is still lagging behind. From the looks of RSI and MACD, it seems that the market has some more fuel for a rally. It might dip a bit this coming week but it seems that we might just see a Santa Claus rally at the end of the year. My target would be 1290 on the S&P.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The dollar did a bounce off the 20 day moving average. It looks ready to rally up to its first target at 23.80 and the second target at 24.50.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


My target for gold is still the same. Final target at 143.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Parabolic silver is getting volatile as it nears the end of its parabolic trend. This is typical of all parabolic trends and this one is no exception. There is a RSI trendline (purple line) and as long as silver keeps above this purple line, this trend will continue.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


There are no changes for Crude. My target is still at 41.84.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural Gas (UNG) had formed a upward channel as it bottoms out of its 2 year downtrend. UNG is at the beginning of a long uptrend that I believe will take 1-2 years to run its course. First target at 7.

Rally on Bad Employment Numbers - Market Analysis for week beginning 6th December 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Although on weekly charts, all 3 indexes had made a bullish MAP pattern (Moving average pattern as taught by David Elliot) on daily it seems to have lost bullish momentum. The problems in Europe and Korea had not moved the indexes much and the markets actually rallied in the first week this month. This rally is off the 50 day moving average and is a very bullish sign.
Last Friday when the non-farm payroll announced a very much worse than expected employment number, the market shrugged it off and continued to rally. I decided to take my profits and observe the markets for the next few weeks.
Every bearish signal that we had for the past few months seemed to be erased in the last hour of trading and it would really pay to take only the bullish signals. It seems that some invisible hand is directing the markets. Currently, I’m more comfortable trading commodities and individual stocks.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The Dollar broke the first significant resistance at around 23.32 and held for 2 days before forming a doji candlestick pattern and then closing below 23.32. I got out immediately. It proceeded to drop and gap and drop. Now its at the 20 day moving average support and lower MOBO support. Should it fail to hold, it will drop to the next support at around 22.65.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Gold and silver defied all bearish signals and continued to rally. It’s worthwhile to note that failure patterns are more reliable than the actual pattern itself. Target for Gold would be at 143 and silver at 31.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Crude Oil (USO) had formed a classic fibo retracement pattern together with the fibo fan. Target at 41.84.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural Gas (UNG) had bounced off the 50 day moving average. This is a bullish signal and coupled with the gap last night, natural gas is on its way to my target at 7.