TIP - The weekly TIP chart shows a parabolic rally stalled. Although it looks as if it can go for at least another 4 weeks, the daily chart shows otherwise. The daily chart shows that TIP has stalled and has retraced. The candlestick pattern and indicators are somewhat conflicting, and it remains to be seen if this stall is a continuation or a reversal. Breaking the recent low registered this week would complete the price action reversal.
JNK – The JNK weekly continued its rally and is expected to stall as the weekly is overbought on dropping volumes. The daily chart has by mid-week to reverse IF it is to reverse. Indicators are overbought and bearish divergence is almost completed.
DBB / /HG - The weekly copper chart no longer looks bullish but overbought. The daily chart has stalled and consolidation broke down the first trendline support. Indicators are pointing to a bearish week ahead for copper.
According to the above leading indicators, we are in for a likely volatile and consolidative week ahead – again! With a possibility of a start to a major downside. Yes, this week may be very bullish as the beginning of the month is usually so, but the S&P looks to burst up or down in the coming weeks after registering consolidation on low volume for many days. The /ES is full of dojis stacked together… this is a pre-cursor to a major movement, and I am looking for a significant correction at some point soon.
The MadScientist - 1 November 2010
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Calm before the Storm - Market Analysis for 1st November 2010 by Singaporeseeds
Monthly chart for Dow
Weekly chart for Dow
Daily chart for Dow
Monthly chart for S&P
Weekly chart for S&P
Daily chart for S&P
Monthly chart for NASDAQ
Weekly chart for NASDAQ
Daily chart for NASDAQ
All 3 indexes are at important retracement levels on the monthly, weekly and daily charts. This is accompanied by bearish divergences on weekly and daily for Dow, S&P and NASDAQ and many other leading stocks in the US stock market. Daily MACD and RSI for Dow and S&P had begun to turn down while NASDAQ is still stubbornly up although the bearish divergence is also quite obvious. VIX had also made a low and seems to be turning up.
Although the charts are pointing to a major correction in the indexes, this may also be a setup for a major upward movement in the next few days. We still have a couple of important support levels that the indexes need to break through. (wedge support at around 1150 on S&P) The indexes had been moving in a very volatile range just like my trading coach Conrad had predicted late last year and this may give way to either a explosive move up or down from next year onwards. Either way, we are setting up for some very interesting and major moves in the next few months.
Gold (GLD)
Daily chart for gold
Gold is continuing on its uptrend as expected and had broken upper MOBO resistance. As long as it closes above this resistance, it is still good to go. I’m expecting gold to hit 143 in the next few weeks.
Crude Oil (USO)
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Crude Oil has hit major resistance (200 and 500 day moving average) in early Oct 2010 and had been moving in a slightly downward channel for the whole month. The side where it breaks out from will be the side where I’ll be on. I’ve got a feeling this will be up but we have to continue to monitor it to be sure.
Dollar (UUP)
Daily chart for UUP
As fundamentally and technically nothing had changed, I’ll just repost what I’ve said about the dollar since early Oct 2010:
Dollar is still on a downtrend down to my 3 levels of support at 22, 21.94 and finally 21.78.
From the close of trading on Friday, it seems that the dollar downtrend should stop somewhere between 21.78 and 21.94 on UUP.
Weekly chart for Dow
Daily chart for Dow
Monthly chart for S&P
Weekly chart for S&P
Daily chart for S&P
Monthly chart for NASDAQ
Weekly chart for NASDAQ
Daily chart for NASDAQ
All 3 indexes are at important retracement levels on the monthly, weekly and daily charts. This is accompanied by bearish divergences on weekly and daily for Dow, S&P and NASDAQ and many other leading stocks in the US stock market. Daily MACD and RSI for Dow and S&P had begun to turn down while NASDAQ is still stubbornly up although the bearish divergence is also quite obvious. VIX had also made a low and seems to be turning up.
Although the charts are pointing to a major correction in the indexes, this may also be a setup for a major upward movement in the next few days. We still have a couple of important support levels that the indexes need to break through. (wedge support at around 1150 on S&P) The indexes had been moving in a very volatile range just like my trading coach Conrad had predicted late last year and this may give way to either a explosive move up or down from next year onwards. Either way, we are setting up for some very interesting and major moves in the next few months.
Gold (GLD)
Daily chart for gold
Gold is continuing on its uptrend as expected and had broken upper MOBO resistance. As long as it closes above this resistance, it is still good to go. I’m expecting gold to hit 143 in the next few weeks.
Crude Oil (USO)
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Crude Oil has hit major resistance (200 and 500 day moving average) in early Oct 2010 and had been moving in a slightly downward channel for the whole month. The side where it breaks out from will be the side where I’ll be on. I’ve got a feeling this will be up but we have to continue to monitor it to be sure.
Dollar (UUP)
Daily chart for UUP
As fundamentally and technically nothing had changed, I’ll just repost what I’ve said about the dollar since early Oct 2010:
Dollar is still on a downtrend down to my 3 levels of support at 22, 21.94 and finally 21.78.
From the close of trading on Friday, it seems that the dollar downtrend should stop somewhere between 21.78 and 21.94 on UUP.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Analysis of October trades by Singaporeseeds
British Petroleum, BP
Daily chart of BP
Market Analysis on 30th Sept 2010:
Market Analysis on 3rd October 2010:
Market Analysis on 6th October 2010:
Analysis and Conclusion:
Entered BP on 29th Sept 2010 and held till mid Oct 2010. Sold off at around 41.50 when I realized that BP was not going to break above this resistance anytime soon. BP had been moving in a sideways fashion for even till now. This is accompanied by crude oil hitting major resistances and failing to break above it. This sideways movement would have eaten into my profits because I was holding onto call options. BP may continue to rally to 50.50 but I will only enter after it has broken resistance at 41.50.
Microsoft, MSFT
Daily chart for MSFT
Market Analysis on 6th October 2010:
Analysis and Conclusion:
Entered MSFT on 6th October and got out on the 18th. Then re-entered on the 20th of October and held the position till now. I have a first target at 27.50 and second target at 31. However the 26.25 to 27.50 region is a strong retracement level and with the stock currently in this region, I will be monitoring constantly and may get out if things do not look good.
Daily chart of BP
Market Analysis on 30th Sept 2010:
"The problems plaguing BP over the past few months had been finally over. With the current strength in commodities and in crude oil price, I believe BP will return to its former glory in no time. This would be a long term play and I will be targeting the BP at around 60+. Yesterday, after moving with the 50 day moving average for weeks, BP’s price formed an engulfing and a gap up. This is a very bullish signal when it happens right above the 50 day moving average. I’m looking at BP reaching 50 by end of November 2010."
Market Analysis on 3rd October 2010:
"I do not usually buy individual stocks. But BP had been a screaming buy since June this year. I hesitated and missed the first rally. It screamed at me again in early September but I was busy with other things. Finally decided to go in on the 28th of September but I was too stingy and missed it. Managed to get it on the 29th and it had been a beauty. Target price at 50.50."
Market Analysis on 6th October 2010:
"BP is at strong resistance and may move sideways a bit. This is especially after rallying so much over the past few days. My target is still at 50.50 but I’ll be watching closely to see whether it will break resistance at 41.50."
Analysis and Conclusion:
Entered BP on 29th Sept 2010 and held till mid Oct 2010. Sold off at around 41.50 when I realized that BP was not going to break above this resistance anytime soon. BP had been moving in a sideways fashion for even till now. This is accompanied by crude oil hitting major resistances and failing to break above it. This sideways movement would have eaten into my profits because I was holding onto call options. BP may continue to rally to 50.50 but I will only enter after it has broken resistance at 41.50.
Microsoft, MSFT
Daily chart for MSFT
Market Analysis on 6th October 2010:
"Microsoft is in a wedge and is also at Fibonacci retracement COP level. This is the ideal place to enter on any long position. First target at the late 2007 high of 35. A break below 23 means that the stock is going down and the sideways movement might continue."
Analysis and Conclusion:
Entered MSFT on 6th October and got out on the 18th. Then re-entered on the 20th of October and held the position till now. I have a first target at 27.50 and second target at 31. However the 26.25 to 27.50 region is a strong retracement level and with the stock currently in this region, I will be monitoring constantly and may get out if things do not look good.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Going for the Highs of the Year - Market Analysis for 25th October 2010 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
I believe we should have another bullish week before the retest of support at the top of the wedge begins. Target at 1,200 on S&P. However there’s a chance that we might be just gyrating in a range between 1,000 and 1,215 on the S&P till the end of the year.
Daily chart for Gold
Gold pulled back as expected. It’s too early to tell where it might pull back to but as long as it doesn’t break below support at 122, gold is still poised to rally to my final target at 143.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
There is a pennant forming on USO daily. This should bring USO down to its 50 day moving average at 34.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
Dollar is still on a downtrend down to my 3 levels of support at 22, 21.94 and finally 21.78.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
I believe we should have another bullish week before the retest of support at the top of the wedge begins. Target at 1,200 on S&P. However there’s a chance that we might be just gyrating in a range between 1,000 and 1,215 on the S&P till the end of the year.
Daily chart for Gold
Gold pulled back as expected. It’s too early to tell where it might pull back to but as long as it doesn’t break below support at 122, gold is still poised to rally to my final target at 143.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
There is a pennant forming on USO daily. This should bring USO down to its 50 day moving average at 34.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
Dollar is still on a downtrend down to my 3 levels of support at 22, 21.94 and finally 21.78.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Why London is the best property market to invest in now?
10 most important points in purchasing an investment property by Tim Murphy, CEO IP Global
1) Potential capital growth – there must be strong reasons that the property will appreciate in value over time
2) Demographics – invest in cities with a growth story. (Growing population)
3) Political conditions – strong, stable and free government
4) Clear ownership/Legal title – the government must respect individual rights and its property laws
5) Currency – Property purchase may be over-valued if the currency of the country is over-valued
6) Tax Regulation – Familiarize with the capital gains tax, income tax, stamp duty tax and inheritance tax
7) Availability of leverage
8) Availability of liquidity – must be able to get money out and have a market to sell to
9) Accurate calculation of rental yield
10) DO NOT BE EMOTIONAL WHEN YOU PURCHASE THE PROPERTY!
Why London?1) The policies of the city of London would always ensure that supply of residential housing will always be tight.
- Green belt around London restricts its expansion
- Any British will agree that it is almost impossible to tear down any houses or buildings in London as the city wants to preserve its architectural heritage. The city council will not approve any developer to tear down the existing houses in UK.
2) Strong population growth. London’s population had never decreased since WW2. There had always been population growth even during the depths of the recession. London is an important financial centre in Europe and will remain that way for the foreseeable future. (IE Singapore website) The European troubles are not explicitly linked to UK, as UK currency is independently regulated. According to independent research from IP Global, an international property investment company, there are around 5.5 tenants for every 1 property in London. Supply is very tight. Average rental yield in London is around 4.7-5% with yields going up to 9-10% in certain locations. (My parents recently bought a property in central London with rental yield of 10%) Even with management fees, some allowances for maintenance costs and taxes, it is possible to have a clean profit of 2-4%.
3) The government of UK is one of the most transparent and stable governments in Europe. The largest group of property owners in UK is the aristocracy and they form the largest group in the House of Lords which govern the country on behalf of the Queen. The Prime Minister of UK reports directly to the House of Lords. Hence the rules and regulations of UK will always favor property owners. For example, foreigners can sell their property to anyone and there are no restrictions on the property foreigners/foreign companies can purchase. Hence liquidity would never be an issue.
4) Pound Sterling to Singapore dollar exchange rate is at the best level ever.
5) UK banking system is still in crisis. Developers cannot get loans and the maximum loan that locals can get is around 50%. However foreigners can borrow from foreign banks to purchase UK property but many property companies are selling to us at a huge premium. The tight money supply situation in UK would lead to potential for a serious supply crunch when economic conditions improve a few years later.
Benefits of Doing It Together- As a group through our investment company, we will be able to negotiate for better terms when we ask for loans from banks.
- Able to negotiate better prices with renovations/maintenance companies in UK
- Investment through a private limited company alienates the individual from government policy restrictions.
My Qualifications- Graduated from University of London and studied UK tax laws and accounting policies.
- Will be based in UK from March 2011 onwards. Will be in charge of running a building material supply business to the construction industry in London
- As I’m involved in the construction industry, I’ll know the renovation/maintenance companies there. Will be able to get a good price for renovation works. This should be the highest cost in this business
- I’ll be able to be on the ground to source for bargains and manage the properties
1) Potential capital growth – there must be strong reasons that the property will appreciate in value over time
2) Demographics – invest in cities with a growth story. (Growing population)
3) Political conditions – strong, stable and free government
4) Clear ownership/Legal title – the government must respect individual rights and its property laws
5) Currency – Property purchase may be over-valued if the currency of the country is over-valued
6) Tax Regulation – Familiarize with the capital gains tax, income tax, stamp duty tax and inheritance tax
7) Availability of leverage
8) Availability of liquidity – must be able to get money out and have a market to sell to
9) Accurate calculation of rental yield
10) DO NOT BE EMOTIONAL WHEN YOU PURCHASE THE PROPERTY!
Why London?1) The policies of the city of London would always ensure that supply of residential housing will always be tight.
- Green belt around London restricts its expansion
- Any British will agree that it is almost impossible to tear down any houses or buildings in London as the city wants to preserve its architectural heritage. The city council will not approve any developer to tear down the existing houses in UK.
2) Strong population growth. London’s population had never decreased since WW2. There had always been population growth even during the depths of the recession. London is an important financial centre in Europe and will remain that way for the foreseeable future. (IE Singapore website) The European troubles are not explicitly linked to UK, as UK currency is independently regulated. According to independent research from IP Global, an international property investment company, there are around 5.5 tenants for every 1 property in London. Supply is very tight. Average rental yield in London is around 4.7-5% with yields going up to 9-10% in certain locations. (My parents recently bought a property in central London with rental yield of 10%) Even with management fees, some allowances for maintenance costs and taxes, it is possible to have a clean profit of 2-4%.
3) The government of UK is one of the most transparent and stable governments in Europe. The largest group of property owners in UK is the aristocracy and they form the largest group in the House of Lords which govern the country on behalf of the Queen. The Prime Minister of UK reports directly to the House of Lords. Hence the rules and regulations of UK will always favor property owners. For example, foreigners can sell their property to anyone and there are no restrictions on the property foreigners/foreign companies can purchase. Hence liquidity would never be an issue.
4) Pound Sterling to Singapore dollar exchange rate is at the best level ever.
5) UK banking system is still in crisis. Developers cannot get loans and the maximum loan that locals can get is around 50%. However foreigners can borrow from foreign banks to purchase UK property but many property companies are selling to us at a huge premium. The tight money supply situation in UK would lead to potential for a serious supply crunch when economic conditions improve a few years later.
Benefits of Doing It Together- As a group through our investment company, we will be able to negotiate for better terms when we ask for loans from banks.
- Able to negotiate better prices with renovations/maintenance companies in UK
- Investment through a private limited company alienates the individual from government policy restrictions.
My Qualifications- Graduated from University of London and studied UK tax laws and accounting policies.
- Will be based in UK from March 2011 onwards. Will be in charge of running a building material supply business to the construction industry in London
- As I’m involved in the construction industry, I’ll know the renovation/maintenance companies there. Will be able to get a good price for renovation works. This should be the highest cost in this business
- I’ll be able to be on the ground to source for bargains and manage the properties
Monday, October 18, 2010
WMA 18 Oct 2010 - the turn of the tides
TIP - The weekly TIP chart shows that it just hit resistance. Although it looks as if it can go for at least another 6 weeks or so, the daily chart hints otherwise. The daily chart shows that TIP has gone parabolic, is in mania and may have just started to reverse. The candlestick pattern and all other indicators no longer look favourable for a rally yet again, and it is about time for a correction.
JNK – The weekly JNK stalls! The indicators are still weakly bullish and the stochastics are overbought. The daily chart has a pattern failure after breaking out of the ascending triangle and it did that with a bearish engulfing followed by a confirmation three outside down variation pattern (http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-three-outside-down-candlestick.html). The indicators are also supporting this. Given the ascending triangle breakout failure, this one is expected to tank.
DBB / /HG - The copper chart looks bullish on weekly and daily. Although there are not divergences in the weekly chart, the daily chart is starting to show divergence and the rally is clearly weakening. The current uptrend beginning to cool off as open interest is leveling off with an increase in trading volume. That to me, appears like the big boys are offloading.
According to the above leading indicators, we are in for a likely bearish week.
/DX - The USD futures weekly chart still does not look good for the USD. A steep sell-off in the USD has taken place over the past 6 weeks and should continue. However, the daily chart hints of another possible technical rebound. Friday was the start of a retracement just above the support of 76 with short term bullish divergence.
SPX / S&P500 - The SPY is currently bullish on the weekly charts and on the daily, it has to pop up to a new recent high about 1900 before it retraces back to equilibrate the bearish divergence formed.
/GC / Gold - Gold weekly is clearly parabolic and should be expecting a correction soon. The daily chart shows the RSI and MACD weakening with very short term bearish divergence. Price is in the maniac zone with a candlestick pattern that is similar to a bearish engulfing.
/CL / Crude - Crude weekly chart looks for a retracement before a possible rally, but it appears to remain range bound. Daily chart suggest that the recent rally stalled and is heading down. There is a uptrending channel and all the indicators suggest a short term downside.
VIX / VXX - Although the weekly VIX looks bearish, the daily chart appears to have a bullish divergence forming.
The MadScientist - 18 October 2010
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
JNK – The weekly JNK stalls! The indicators are still weakly bullish and the stochastics are overbought. The daily chart has a pattern failure after breaking out of the ascending triangle and it did that with a bearish engulfing followed by a confirmation three outside down variation pattern (http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-three-outside-down-candlestick.html). The indicators are also supporting this. Given the ascending triangle breakout failure, this one is expected to tank.
DBB / /HG - The copper chart looks bullish on weekly and daily. Although there are not divergences in the weekly chart, the daily chart is starting to show divergence and the rally is clearly weakening. The current uptrend beginning to cool off as open interest is leveling off with an increase in trading volume. That to me, appears like the big boys are offloading.
According to the above leading indicators, we are in for a likely bearish week.
/DX - The USD futures weekly chart still does not look good for the USD. A steep sell-off in the USD has taken place over the past 6 weeks and should continue. However, the daily chart hints of another possible technical rebound. Friday was the start of a retracement just above the support of 76 with short term bullish divergence.
SPX / S&P500 - The SPY is currently bullish on the weekly charts and on the daily, it has to pop up to a new recent high about 1900 before it retraces back to equilibrate the bearish divergence formed.
/GC / Gold - Gold weekly is clearly parabolic and should be expecting a correction soon. The daily chart shows the RSI and MACD weakening with very short term bearish divergence. Price is in the maniac zone with a candlestick pattern that is similar to a bearish engulfing.
/CL / Crude - Crude weekly chart looks for a retracement before a possible rally, but it appears to remain range bound. Daily chart suggest that the recent rally stalled and is heading down. There is a uptrending channel and all the indicators suggest a short term downside.
VIX / VXX - Although the weekly VIX looks bearish, the daily chart appears to have a bullish divergence forming.
The MadScientist - 18 October 2010
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Beginning of the October Effect - - Daily Market Analysis for 18th October 2010 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The indexes looked like they are coming back down to test support at the top of the wedge. This would be around 1,150 on the S&P. The indexes are poised to make new highs for the year over the next few weeks. Bearish divergences are beginning to form on the indexes but I reckon it would be 2-3 weeks before these divergences correct themselves. In the meantime, enjoy the rally while it lasts.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold hit XOP on Friday. I’m expecting a correction soon. It had been a crazy run since July and gold had been running without any dips in the uptrend. This is bad for a sustainable rally so any dips would actually be good for a longer term rally up to my final target at 143.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude had formed a double top right below its 200 day moving average. This is very bearish but it had been trending sideways since June now. Not expecting a change in trend anytime soon. It should be retracing to 34 or 33.50 over the next few weeks.
Daily chart for Dollar (UUP)
The dollar is still in a steep downtrend. Downward momentum is still strong but I’m expecting an entry for a strong bounce soon. However this should not happen until the dollar hits support levels at 22, 21.94 or 21.78.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
Long Term chart for UNG
UNG is at an all time low now. Bullish divergences are forming on the daily chart and I believe there should a bullish entry within the next 2-3 weeks. This would be a long term play on the health of the global economy. Buy the ETF itself and hold it for the next few years.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The indexes looked like they are coming back down to test support at the top of the wedge. This would be around 1,150 on the S&P. The indexes are poised to make new highs for the year over the next few weeks. Bearish divergences are beginning to form on the indexes but I reckon it would be 2-3 weeks before these divergences correct themselves. In the meantime, enjoy the rally while it lasts.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold hit XOP on Friday. I’m expecting a correction soon. It had been a crazy run since July and gold had been running without any dips in the uptrend. This is bad for a sustainable rally so any dips would actually be good for a longer term rally up to my final target at 143.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude had formed a double top right below its 200 day moving average. This is very bearish but it had been trending sideways since June now. Not expecting a change in trend anytime soon. It should be retracing to 34 or 33.50 over the next few weeks.
Daily chart for Dollar (UUP)
The dollar is still in a steep downtrend. Downward momentum is still strong but I’m expecting an entry for a strong bounce soon. However this should not happen until the dollar hits support levels at 22, 21.94 or 21.78.
Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)
Long Term chart for UNG
UNG is at an all time low now. Bullish divergences are forming on the daily chart and I believe there should a bullish entry within the next 2-3 weeks. This would be a long term play on the health of the global economy. Buy the ETF itself and hold it for the next few years.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
WMA 11 Oct 2010 - Rise to parabolia
TIP
The weekly TIP chart is in an extreme rally. A really beautiful rally, so much so that the bearish divergence is postponed so many times, it looks almost as if this is a real rally to continue till the cows come home. I would be very very cautious about this, and am a little nervous when I see these kind of charts. The daily chart has gone parabolic, with a bit more to go… If you draw support trendlines, you will find that the recent activity has the support trendlines moving in steeper angles. Now, it is in mania and still has a good week to go.
JNK
The weekly JNK bullish rally continues! The indicators are weakly bullish and the stochastics are overbought. The daily chart has had a clear rising triangle and is now at the top end with a beautiful bearish divergence. The Countdown ended and the stochastics is very extreme.
DBB / /HG
The copper chart looks bullish on weekly and daily. Bullish going to rise till parabolic!
According to the above leading indicators, we are in for a bullish week in October!
/DX
The USD futures weekly chart do not look good for the USD at all. A steep sell-off in the USD has taken place over the past 5 weeks and is set to continue. However, the daily chart hints of a possible technical rebound. It is holding at the daily extension support of 77.40 with a short term bullish divergence.
SPX / S&P500
The SPY weekly is only at the beginning of another bullish leg, but the daily chart is not only overbought, but also bearishly divergent in terms of volume, strength (RSI), and other intidators. The forward indicators are suggesting a possible pattern breakout failure with 5 more days to play out before a correction.
/GC / Gold
Gold on the weekly futures chart again delayed its retracement and increased its trajectory rally to near parabolia. The daily prices are way out in mania with some strength, but divergent indicators are obvious. The volumes and open interest are supportive of the rally for now, and looks to be so for about another week more.
/CL / Crude
Crude weekly chart is also bullish. The daily prices broke out of a wide range on overbought terms and is consolidating in a narrower resistance range. IF it is to rally, it should be a week of rally to meet the next resistance. However, this may be on the back of bearish divegence that appear in the trading volumes.
VIX / VXX
I like the VIX/VXX charts… the weekly is showing a HUGE bullish divergence. So is the daily chart. The complacency is the market is so intriguing and alluring! Go take a look…
The MadScientist - 11 October 2010
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
The weekly TIP chart is in an extreme rally. A really beautiful rally, so much so that the bearish divergence is postponed so many times, it looks almost as if this is a real rally to continue till the cows come home. I would be very very cautious about this, and am a little nervous when I see these kind of charts. The daily chart has gone parabolic, with a bit more to go… If you draw support trendlines, you will find that the recent activity has the support trendlines moving in steeper angles. Now, it is in mania and still has a good week to go.
JNK
The weekly JNK bullish rally continues! The indicators are weakly bullish and the stochastics are overbought. The daily chart has had a clear rising triangle and is now at the top end with a beautiful bearish divergence. The Countdown ended and the stochastics is very extreme.
DBB / /HG
The copper chart looks bullish on weekly and daily. Bullish going to rise till parabolic!
According to the above leading indicators, we are in for a bullish week in October!
/DX
The USD futures weekly chart do not look good for the USD at all. A steep sell-off in the USD has taken place over the past 5 weeks and is set to continue. However, the daily chart hints of a possible technical rebound. It is holding at the daily extension support of 77.40 with a short term bullish divergence.
SPX / S&P500
The SPY weekly is only at the beginning of another bullish leg, but the daily chart is not only overbought, but also bearishly divergent in terms of volume, strength (RSI), and other intidators. The forward indicators are suggesting a possible pattern breakout failure with 5 more days to play out before a correction.
/GC / Gold
Gold on the weekly futures chart again delayed its retracement and increased its trajectory rally to near parabolia. The daily prices are way out in mania with some strength, but divergent indicators are obvious. The volumes and open interest are supportive of the rally for now, and looks to be so for about another week more.
/CL / Crude
Crude weekly chart is also bullish. The daily prices broke out of a wide range on overbought terms and is consolidating in a narrower resistance range. IF it is to rally, it should be a week of rally to meet the next resistance. However, this may be on the back of bearish divegence that appear in the trading volumes.
VIX / VXX
I like the VIX/VXX charts… the weekly is showing a HUGE bullish divergence. So is the daily chart. The complacency is the market is so intriguing and alluring! Go take a look…
The MadScientist - 11 October 2010
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
The Rally Continues – Market Analysis for 11th October 2010 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The indexes broke clear of the wedge and are now on their way to the May 2010 highs. (1,220 on S&P) I am ruling out any possibility of a fake out rally now unless a strong reversal occurs within the next 2-3 days. Momentum is good and we should be at around 1,220 on S&P by end of the year. Whether we continue to rally after that is another issue.
Daily chart for Gold
Gold (GLD) hit my monthly pivot resistance at 132.67 and retraced. However I believe it is still set to hit my first target at 134. Gold is overbought right now and a correction would actually be good to for a longer run up.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude Oil (USO) hit resistance and retraced as expected. I believe crude is still in a sideways trend and should remain this way for the next few weeks.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
USD (UUP) is still showing signs that it can go on for a lot more. The next support levels are 22, 21.94 and 21.78. I believe the bottom of the trend should be from one of those levels.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The indexes broke clear of the wedge and are now on their way to the May 2010 highs. (1,220 on S&P) I am ruling out any possibility of a fake out rally now unless a strong reversal occurs within the next 2-3 days. Momentum is good and we should be at around 1,220 on S&P by end of the year. Whether we continue to rally after that is another issue.
Daily chart for Gold
Gold (GLD) hit my monthly pivot resistance at 132.67 and retraced. However I believe it is still set to hit my first target at 134. Gold is overbought right now and a correction would actually be good to for a longer run up.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude Oil (USO) hit resistance and retraced as expected. I believe crude is still in a sideways trend and should remain this way for the next few weeks.
Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)
USD (UUP) is still showing signs that it can go on for a lot more. The next support levels are 22, 21.94 and 21.78. I believe the bottom of the trend should be from one of those levels.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
And Here We Go!!! - Market Analysis for 7th October 2010 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The huge spike on Tuesday broke the 4 month wedge on the 3 indexes. The wedge can be seen with the red lines. Now the markets look set to target for the May 2010 highs. We should be there (11,250 on Dow, 1,220 on the S&P and 2,535 on NASDAQ) by the end of the year.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold is gunning for my first target of 134. At the rate its going, we should be there in 1-2 weeks. This should be followed by an equally quick correction back to around 125. Gold is still showing signs of being able to go on for a lot more. In my opinion, this should be around 143 on GLD. This would be 1,430 on spot gold.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude Oil had hit strong resistance at 82.50. Crude had failed to break above 82.50 for 4 times since late last year and I think this time it’ll be the same. I believe it should be coming down to about 78 soon. This would be about 34 on USO.
Daily chart for USD
The US dollar had been dropping like a fly. I’m still waiting for a rally to enter on a short for the dollar. Target at 21.78.
Daily chart for BP
BP is at strong resistance and may move sideways a bit. This is especially after rallying so much over the past few days. My target is still at 50.50 but I’ll be watching closely to see whether it will break resistance at 41.50.
Daily chart for Microsoft
Microsoft is in a wedge and is also at Fibonacci retracement COP level. This is the ideal place to enter on any long position. First target at the late 2007 high of 35. A break below 23 means that the stock is going down and the sideways movement might continue.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The huge spike on Tuesday broke the 4 month wedge on the 3 indexes. The wedge can be seen with the red lines. Now the markets look set to target for the May 2010 highs. We should be there (11,250 on Dow, 1,220 on the S&P and 2,535 on NASDAQ) by the end of the year.
Daily chart for Gold (GLD)
Gold is gunning for my first target of 134. At the rate its going, we should be there in 1-2 weeks. This should be followed by an equally quick correction back to around 125. Gold is still showing signs of being able to go on for a lot more. In my opinion, this should be around 143 on GLD. This would be 1,430 on spot gold.
Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)
Crude Oil had hit strong resistance at 82.50. Crude had failed to break above 82.50 for 4 times since late last year and I think this time it’ll be the same. I believe it should be coming down to about 78 soon. This would be about 34 on USO.
Daily chart for USD
The US dollar had been dropping like a fly. I’m still waiting for a rally to enter on a short for the dollar. Target at 21.78.
Daily chart for BP
BP is at strong resistance and may move sideways a bit. This is especially after rallying so much over the past few days. My target is still at 50.50 but I’ll be watching closely to see whether it will break resistance at 41.50.
Daily chart for Microsoft
Microsoft is in a wedge and is also at Fibonacci retracement COP level. This is the ideal place to enter on any long position. First target at the late 2007 high of 35. A break below 23 means that the stock is going down and the sideways movement might continue.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
WMA - Trading week ending 8 October 2010
TIP - The weekly TIP chart is still in an uptrend and last week was a spike with volume. The drawback is that there are hairy tops on these candles and they were formed with a volume spike, which indicates that there was a decent amount of selling to get the hairy candletops. The daily chart had rallied twice into mania in recent weeks and has since retraced back in. From a price action standpoint, breaking below the support line at 108.55 confirms a trend reversal bias. The Stochastics, and RSI appear worn out from a long rally. This could be the top for TIP.
JNK – The weekly JNK charts is indicating a bullish rally that should stall soon as it is meeting the resistance the third time. This may be forming a triple top or a H&S formation with 37.5 being the neckline. The mild rally should be stalling with the RSI, Stochastics and Force Index bearish divergent. The daily chart has had a recent mild rally and looks bearish at the moment with weakening indicators and a hanging man / evening star variant at the top.
DBB / /HG - The weekly copper chart looks bullish still. The short term bias is bearish but the longer term indicators still indicate bullishness. The daily chart shows copper overbought for a few weeks and should be moderating this week.
According to the above leading indicators, it looks like this week would determine October’s main direction with markets mostly flattish and very probably to turn about (and thereafter rally like crazy).
/DX - The USD weekly chart suggests that the downtrend continuing to as low as 75.3. The daily chart affirms that there is some more way for the USD to fall further. Indicators for both weekly is confirming the bearish tones, but daily chart is at a support and likely to bounce, with indicators oversold and a bullish harami logged yesterday.
SPX / S&P500 - The SPX/SPY (S&P500) looks very bullish on the weekly chart, with technicals looking bullish. However, the daily chart still has stalled in this rally, and needs a retracement soon technicals deteriorate. The retracement should be on already and this case breaks if a higher high is made with a close.
/GC / Gold - The Gold futures weekly chart is in the midst of a rally that appears to continue to making a new high. Bearish divergences indicate an imminent correction to the 1000/1100 level. The daily chart is really overbought with a bearish divergence. This significant correction to come soon.
/CL / Crude - Crude weekly chart is about flatly consolidating and a possible breakout of range may be occurring. The daily chart has broken above and currently looks bullish if it does take out the August high, instead of a fakeout.
The MadScientist – 5 October 2010
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
JNK – The weekly JNK charts is indicating a bullish rally that should stall soon as it is meeting the resistance the third time. This may be forming a triple top or a H&S formation with 37.5 being the neckline. The mild rally should be stalling with the RSI, Stochastics and Force Index bearish divergent. The daily chart has had a recent mild rally and looks bearish at the moment with weakening indicators and a hanging man / evening star variant at the top.
DBB / /HG - The weekly copper chart looks bullish still. The short term bias is bearish but the longer term indicators still indicate bullishness. The daily chart shows copper overbought for a few weeks and should be moderating this week.
According to the above leading indicators, it looks like this week would determine October’s main direction with markets mostly flattish and very probably to turn about (and thereafter rally like crazy).
/DX - The USD weekly chart suggests that the downtrend continuing to as low as 75.3. The daily chart affirms that there is some more way for the USD to fall further. Indicators for both weekly is confirming the bearish tones, but daily chart is at a support and likely to bounce, with indicators oversold and a bullish harami logged yesterday.
SPX / S&P500 - The SPX/SPY (S&P500) looks very bullish on the weekly chart, with technicals looking bullish. However, the daily chart still has stalled in this rally, and needs a retracement soon technicals deteriorate. The retracement should be on already and this case breaks if a higher high is made with a close.
/GC / Gold - The Gold futures weekly chart is in the midst of a rally that appears to continue to making a new high. Bearish divergences indicate an imminent correction to the 1000/1100 level. The daily chart is really overbought with a bearish divergence. This significant correction to come soon.
/CL / Crude - Crude weekly chart is about flatly consolidating and a possible breakout of range may be occurring. The daily chart has broken above and currently looks bullish if it does take out the August high, instead of a fakeout.
The MadScientist – 5 October 2010
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Cracks Appearing in the Market – Market Analysis for 4th October 2010 by Singaporeseeds
Daily chart for Dow
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The market is getting overbought and its looks ripe for a correction. From the looks of it, we might just go sideways till the end of the year. The markets had been in a wedge since May 2010 (as in seen in the S&P daily chart) and the current rally doesn’t seem to be able to break this wedge. I think we should be dropping to 1,120 on the S&P over the next few days. Where this will go to will depend on whether the supports at the 50 and 200 day moving average will hold the market up.
Gold (GLD)
Daily chart for GLD
Gold had been on a tear for the longest time ever. My target will be at 1,380 for gold. This will be at 134 for GLD. Gold is getting overbought at the moment and should correct for a while after hitting this target.
Crude Oil (USO)
Daily chart for USO
Crude Oil (USO) had been getting strong support at around 32 over the past 4 months. Now it has finally bounced off these supports and went for the 200 day moving average at 36.50. I reckon it should be able to break resistance at the 200 day moving average and reach 40 soon.
US Dollar (UUP)
Daily chart for UUP
Absolutely perfect fibo retracement and fibo fan pattern down for USD. Too bad I wasn’t looking at this when it happened. However if it rallies to test resistance at 23.30, I might have a chance to short it down to 21.80. We’ll see how it goes.
British Petroleum (BP)
Daily chart for BP
I do not usually buy individual stocks. But BP had been a screaming buy since June this year. I hesitated and missed the first rally. It screamed at me again in early September but I was busy with other things. Finally decided to go in on the 28th of September but I was too stingy and missed it. Managed to get it on the 29th and it had been a beauty. Target price at 50.50.
Apple (AAPL)
Daily chart for AAPL
This is one very overbought stock. Had the signal to short it on Thursday so went in on a very small position. I’m redefining my shorting conditions so I’ll be scaling down my positions over the next few months. Target price at 240.
Daily chart for S&P
Daily chart for NASDAQ
The market is getting overbought and its looks ripe for a correction. From the looks of it, we might just go sideways till the end of the year. The markets had been in a wedge since May 2010 (as in seen in the S&P daily chart) and the current rally doesn’t seem to be able to break this wedge. I think we should be dropping to 1,120 on the S&P over the next few days. Where this will go to will depend on whether the supports at the 50 and 200 day moving average will hold the market up.
Gold (GLD)
Daily chart for GLD
Gold had been on a tear for the longest time ever. My target will be at 1,380 for gold. This will be at 134 for GLD. Gold is getting overbought at the moment and should correct for a while after hitting this target.
Crude Oil (USO)
Daily chart for USO
Crude Oil (USO) had been getting strong support at around 32 over the past 4 months. Now it has finally bounced off these supports and went for the 200 day moving average at 36.50. I reckon it should be able to break resistance at the 200 day moving average and reach 40 soon.
US Dollar (UUP)
Daily chart for UUP
Absolutely perfect fibo retracement and fibo fan pattern down for USD. Too bad I wasn’t looking at this when it happened. However if it rallies to test resistance at 23.30, I might have a chance to short it down to 21.80. We’ll see how it goes.
British Petroleum (BP)
Daily chart for BP
I do not usually buy individual stocks. But BP had been a screaming buy since June this year. I hesitated and missed the first rally. It screamed at me again in early September but I was busy with other things. Finally decided to go in on the 28th of September but I was too stingy and missed it. Managed to get it on the 29th and it had been a beauty. Target price at 50.50.
Apple (AAPL)
Daily chart for AAPL
This is one very overbought stock. Had the signal to short it on Thursday so went in on a very small position. I’m redefining my shorting conditions so I’ll be scaling down my positions over the next few months. Target price at 240.
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