Can the Rally Continue? – Market Analysis for 30th September 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


S&P is just below resistance at 1,150 while Dow and NASDAQ had powered way ahead. Although at this stage, this may still be a fake out rally where the markets will gyrate and the weak hands will give way to stronger hands. I’m actually looking at the indexes to break above and move back up to test the high of the year at 1220 for S&P. I reckon the next few days will be as volatile as before as we approach October and the markets have to break strong resistances over the next few days.

Daily chart for Gold


Gold is as bullish as ever before and should continue to be for the next few years. However at this stage, I believe a correction would be healthy for a longer run ahead. My target is still for gold to reach 1425 by October 2011.


Monthly chart for BP


Daily chart for BP


The problems plaguing BP over the past few months had been finally over. With the current strength in commodities and in crude oil price, I believe BP will return to its former glory in no time. This would be a long term play and I will be targeting the BP at around 60+. Yesterday, after moving with the 50 day moving average for weeks, BP’s price formed an engulfing and a gap up. This is a very bullish signal when it happens right above the 50 day moving average. I’m looking at BP reaching 50 by end of November 2010.

WMA for week ending 1st Oct 2010 - Hibernate the bear

TIP
The weekly TIP chart is still in an uptrend with the volumes are dropping. The daily chart had rallied and now appears to be retracing. The TIP rally is still on, and possibly ending, but obvious signs have yet to be seen.

JNK
The weekly JNK charts is indicating a bullish rally but the indicators are still weakly bullish. The daily chart has had a recent mild retracement and looks bullish at the moment

DBB / /HG
The weekly copper chart looks bullish but cautious. The short term bias is bearish but the longer term indicators still indicate bullishness. The daily chart shows copper overbought for a few weeks and should be retracing this week.


According to the above leading indicators, it looks like a early flattish week in the market and a likely retracement from mid-week.

/DX
The USD weekly chart suggests that the downtrend continuing. The daily chart affirms that there is some more way for the USD to fall further. Indicators for both weekly and daily are rolling over to bearish tones.

SPX / S&P500
The SPX/SPY (S&P500) looks very bullish, especially for September. The weekly chart has registered a higher low, with technicals looking bullish. The daily chart still has a couple of days of continuation of this rally, which needs a retracement soon as it is overbought. Retracement potential is coming, possibly by the end of the week.

/GC / Gold
The Gold futures weekly chart is in the midst of a rally that appears to have continued to making a new high. Bearish divergences indicate an imminent correction to the 1000/1100 level. The daily chart is overbought with a bearish divergence. This signals a correction to come soon.

/CL / Crude
Crude weekly chart is about flatly consolidating. Similarly, the daily chart has broken above and below, and currently looks possibly bullish if it does not fail to put a new recent high, instead of a fakeout.
The MadScientist – 27 September 2010

Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

Where did the bear go? - Market Analysis for 27th September 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Over the past 2 weeks, all remnants of a bearish trend died. Now the monthly and weekly charts are looking very bullish. As September is supposed to be the one of the most bearish time of the year, we might be at the start of a huge rally that might start on October. However we still have one more week to go and with the huge swings over the past few weeks, we never know what might happen. This might just be a fake out rally which may turn bearish in an instant.

We are currently close to a few major resistance levels so this last week will be a deciding factor. If we are able to keep our gains, then October and the whole of 2011 might be a nice bullish year for us all. Should the market hold its gain this coming week, I’ll be looking at the market hitting 1215 on S&P. This would be 11,200 on Dow.

Daily chart for Gold


I’m looking at gold hitting 1,425 by mid 2011 then dropping back to the red trendline over the next few months after that. I’ve got a feeling that we will not see 3 digit price level gold for many many years to come.


Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Crude Oil (USO) did a fake out of the wedge in April and then proceeded to drop over the next few days to 31. Now it seems ready to drop some more to 28.33 after failing it’s 50 day moving average on the 13th of September. This down movement should be completed by end Oct 2010.

CAVEAT EMPTOR! Market top confirmed...

Last night's market action is indicative of a top of an overbought market... beware, be careful.

WMA Part II - So much for the spooky rally stalling - Trading week of 13th to 19th Sept 2010

/DX
The USD weekly charts suggests that the downtrend is not quite over and is resuming. Similarly, today’s price action on the USD is very bearish with a sudden downshift of the USD futures. Indicators for both weekly and daily are rolling over to bearish tones.

SPX / S&P500
The SPX/SPY (S&P500) looks very bullish, especially for September. The weekly chart has registered a higher low, with technicals looking bullish. The daily chart supports that view and is having a nice bull run at the moment. The charts look very bullish but I am expecting a retracement to set in soon before continuation of the trend.

/GC / Gold
The Gold futures weekly chart is in the midst of a rally that appears to have stalled from making a higher high although it has been trudging along a nice uptrendline. Bearish divergences indicate an imminent correction to the 1000/1100 level. The daily chart has broken its uptrendline and is overbought with a mild bearish divergence. This signals a correction in place.

/CL / Crude
Crude weekly chart is about to turn bullish after a retracement and consolidation. The crude season would be starting soon. The daily chart has broken above the Fibonacci price and time zone in a bullish manner. Keeping above this level for the next two to three days would seal the uptrend forming.

The MadScientist – 14 September 2010

Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

Going to Nowhere – Market Analysis for 13th September 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow futures


Daily chart for S&P futures


Daily chart for NASDAQ futures


S&P 500 futures had been grinding along mostly between 1040 and 1120 since late May. It seems that we are going nowhere and with the 200 day moving average more or less flat since June, this will be a long and tiring ride.

Today thanks to Chinese data (not sure how much we can trust their data), the market had gapped up to the 200 day moving average. Should we continue to move up and close up above the 200 day moving average, I would say that we are at the beginning of a bigger rally up. However if S&P fails to break above the 200 (ice-hole failure), it will be start of a bigger trend down. We should be seeing some interesting and decisive movements this week.

WMA Part I - Spooky rally stalls - Trading week of 13 Sept to 19 Sept 2010

TIP
The weekly TIP chart is still in an uptrend although the volumes are dropping fast. This is not the summer slow markets anymore so it should be significant. The daily chart have stalled in a pennent which should be resolved this coming week. Both the weekly and daily indicators are bearishly divergent.

JNK
The weekly JNK charts is indicating a bullish rally that may be about to reverse for a short period. The indicators are weakly bullish. The daily chart has had a retracement and it is near a possible end to a short term rally, with a likely reversal in the coming week.

DBB / /HG
The weekly copper chart looks bullish but cautious as the candlestick patterns do not look good for a favourable week ahead. The short term bias is bearish but the longer term indicators still indicate bullishness. The daily chart has a bearish divergence that is equilibrating and is currently well underway.

According to the above leading indicators, we are in for a bearish week in the market as all indicators are bearish or beginning to be so.

*Am very tired as I did a lot of homework for something over this long weekend. Part II will follow soonest.

Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

Where did the volumes go? – Market Analysis for 07/09/2010 by Singaporeseeds

2 Day chart for Dow


2 Day chart for S&P


2 Day chart for NASDAQ


When the volumes disappear, use longer time frame charts. The charts above are in 2 day periods and show that the indexes closed just above the 50 period moving average which is also an important resistance level.
Monday is a US public holiday and the markets are closed. However should the market open up and move up on Tuesday, the downtrend to 900 would be mostly dead. At this stage, I still believe that the markets will be trending down into October but I do not want to put too much money on the line on this. It looks like the bulls are fighting a hard battle and that we might well be moving sideways in a very volatile fashion instead.

Update to WMA 3 September 2010

With reference to my earlier post, it appears that there is a bullish trend in place at least for the next week.



http://trendspottingmadscientist.blogspot.com/2010/09/wma-3-september-2010-market-decision.html


Nice to have the markets make some sort of decision, even for the short term.

WMA 3 September 2010 - Market decision point - again

TIP
The weekly TIP chart is showing a bearish divergence about to mature. The current rally should be matured with a new high over the next 2-3 weeks. The daily chart pose a slightly different picture with being overbought and indicative of a likely retracement. The daily bearish divergence is matured and has probably just started to equilibrate.

JNK
The weekly JNK chart although maintaining in bullish area, is weakening after equilibrating a bearish divergence, and is currently neutral. The daily chart however, looks ready for another bullish pop and should be clearer by this weekend.

HYG appears to be similar to JNK.

LQD still maintains its divergence with JNK and HYG. LQD has had a 3 month long rally and its previous bearish divergence was not realized. The daily chart has a record rally and has a recent bearish divergence that is correcting. IT will be a while before this correction completes.

DBB / /HG
Copper weekly prices are about to make a new 52-week high. The indicators are bullish although it is noted that the recent rally did not have spectacular volume support. Then again, a spectacular volume support would mean that the rally is about done. The daily chart is beginning to register a bearish divergence maturing, but for now, higher copper prices should be expected at least for the rest of this week into next.

Of the Napier’s leading indicators, there appears to be some conflicting signals with a slight bias to the bullish rally, at least for the next two weeks. Thereafter, IF there is a correction, it will happen then.


/DX
The weekly USD futures is weak. Having retraced to the COP (61.8%) at 83.4, it is likely to be starting its downtrend with the indicators pointing to weakness. A likely support is seen at 78, and its target for now is 75. The daily chart reflects a similar picture with the USD currently at a pivotal point and more likely to display weakness in the days-weeks to come.
Recent trends have it as a weaker USD with stronger general equities market.


SPX / S&P500
The weekly chart posted a higher low, fighting against a downtrend and keeping support. The daily chart apprears bullish for the short term, which needs to be confirmed by the end of the week, meaning that the next 3 days would be crucial to determine a good direction.

/GC / Gold
The weekly chart shows that Gold is bullish and will continue to be so regardless of a ever growing bearish divergence. This bearish divergence is almost a year old! And I see this going on for another good 4 weeks. However, the daily chart looks overbought and almost time for a rather serious retracement by next week.

/CL / Crude
The Crude oil weekly chart show that it is rather neutral at this point. While some indicators are pointing to a bearish outcome, others are building up a bullish scenario. On the daily chart, crude has to break and keep above 75 to be in a bullish trend. Currently, it is slightly biased to being bullish.


From the above (rather quick) analysis, it reminds me of a case where there is a crouching bear hidden bull. Much depends on the employment data this few days and until a favourable data plus confirmation breaks are in place, it is pretty much a 60/40 in my opinion… the bulls have a slight edge.

The MadScientist – 3 September 2010

Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.