Contact me at singaporeseeds@gmail.com if you are interested. Tickets are going at $10 per person if you order the tickets directly from me.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Wealth Academy Expo 2010
Contact me at singaporeseeds@gmail.com if you are interested. Tickets are going at $10 per person if you order the tickets directly from me.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
FAKED OUT BY THE SPIKE – Market Analysis for 28th April 2010 by Singaporeseeds
Daily charts for Dow
Daily charts for S&P500
Daily charts for NASDAQ
What a big difference 2 days make. The markets got spooked by the problems in Greece and turned abruptly over the last 2 days. On daily charts, the Dow has formed an evening star while S&P 500 and NASDAQ had formed a three inside down pattern. All 3 patterns are highly reliable reversal patterns.
Today we are expecting the FOMC statement at 2pm US Eastern time and the market should be muted until the release of this statement. Over the next few days, I am expecting a market correction to 10,710 for Dow, 1,150 for S&P 500 and 2,400 for NASDAQ. I believe the FOMC statement should help the market achieve this.
Crude Oil
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Crude is at 82.50 support now and should be breaking below over the next few days. My initial target is 79, followed by 70.
Daily charts for S&P500
Daily charts for NASDAQ
What a big difference 2 days make. The markets got spooked by the problems in Greece and turned abruptly over the last 2 days. On daily charts, the Dow has formed an evening star while S&P 500 and NASDAQ had formed a three inside down pattern. All 3 patterns are highly reliable reversal patterns.
Today we are expecting the FOMC statement at 2pm US Eastern time and the market should be muted until the release of this statement. Over the next few days, I am expecting a market correction to 10,710 for Dow, 1,150 for S&P 500 and 2,400 for NASDAQ. I believe the FOMC statement should help the market achieve this.
Crude Oil
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Crude is at 82.50 support now and should be breaking below over the next few days. My initial target is 79, followed by 70.
Monday, April 26, 2010
THIS RALLY HAS NO END – Market Analysis for 26th April 2010 by Singaporeseeds
Weekly charts for the Dow
Daily charts for the Dow
Weekly charts for the S&P 500
Daily charts for the S&P 500
Weekly charts for NASDAQ
Daily charts for NASDAQ
All 3 indexes broke to new highs on Friday. This is one of the most bullish rallies ever. It looks even more so for NASDAQ, which has rallied past 70% since its 2008 bottom. I have 2 significant resistance levels on the S&P at 1225 and 1250. This would be 11250 and 11470 on the Dow. The market is poised to make a new high to these levels before there can be any market reversals. The previous high of 1210 on the S&P and 1110 on the Dow will now be support for any price movement.
Daily chart of GS
It is interesting to note that GS is forming a pennant on daily charts. Any break of the pennant at support at 157 and resistance at 160 will indicate that GS will be moving around 20 points down and up respectively.
Daily chart of XLF
It is interesting to note that the finance sector did not make a new high along with the market indexes. It actually seems to be continuing its trend down but we shall see more in the next few days. GS will be a major mover of this index.
Conclusion:
I do not think the rally will last more than a week. We should be finally making a correction starting from sometime this week. However I will be monitoring XLF as the sector had been leading the market and should lead the market in the corrections too.
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Crude is still bouncing off support and its 50 day moving average at 82.50. It’s interesting to note how strong resistance became strong support. I believe crude will be tanking over the next few days to 79. We shall see how it turns out.
Daily charts for the Dow
Weekly charts for the S&P 500
Daily charts for the S&P 500
Weekly charts for NASDAQ
Daily charts for NASDAQ
All 3 indexes broke to new highs on Friday. This is one of the most bullish rallies ever. It looks even more so for NASDAQ, which has rallied past 70% since its 2008 bottom. I have 2 significant resistance levels on the S&P at 1225 and 1250. This would be 11250 and 11470 on the Dow. The market is poised to make a new high to these levels before there can be any market reversals. The previous high of 1210 on the S&P and 1110 on the Dow will now be support for any price movement.
Daily chart of GS
It is interesting to note that GS is forming a pennant on daily charts. Any break of the pennant at support at 157 and resistance at 160 will indicate that GS will be moving around 20 points down and up respectively.
Daily chart of XLF
It is interesting to note that the finance sector did not make a new high along with the market indexes. It actually seems to be continuing its trend down but we shall see more in the next few days. GS will be a major mover of this index.
Conclusion:
I do not think the rally will last more than a week. We should be finally making a correction starting from sometime this week. However I will be monitoring XLF as the sector had been leading the market and should lead the market in the corrections too.
Daily chart for Crude Oil
Crude is still bouncing off support and its 50 day moving average at 82.50. It’s interesting to note how strong resistance became strong support. I believe crude will be tanking over the next few days to 79. We shall see how it turns out.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Failure at 1200 – Market Analysis for 22/04/2010 by Singaporeseeds
Weekly chart of S&P 500
Daily chart of S&P 500
On daily charts, S&P 500 had failed to rally above resistance at 1210 over the past 2 days. I will be keeping a close eye at this level. The bearish reversal signal is still intact and although there may be intraday breaches, but I do not expect the S&P rally above 1210 for at least the next few weeks.
I believe the S&P will tank below its 20 day moving average (the blue line) in the next few days. The low volume rally off the February 2010 lows had pushed the S&P way above its 50 day moving average and a short term correction to the 50 day moving average may be possible within the next 2 weeks.
Crude Oil
Daily chart of crude
Crude bounced off support at 82.50 on Monday and constipated around the 84 level. The downtrend for crude is still intact and we should be seeing some weakness in the next few days down to support at 79.50.
Daily chart of S&P 500
On daily charts, S&P 500 had failed to rally above resistance at 1210 over the past 2 days. I will be keeping a close eye at this level. The bearish reversal signal is still intact and although there may be intraday breaches, but I do not expect the S&P rally above 1210 for at least the next few weeks.
I believe the S&P will tank below its 20 day moving average (the blue line) in the next few days. The low volume rally off the February 2010 lows had pushed the S&P way above its 50 day moving average and a short term correction to the 50 day moving average may be possible within the next 2 weeks.
Crude Oil
Daily chart of crude
Crude bounced off support at 82.50 on Monday and constipated around the 84 level. The downtrend for crude is still intact and we should be seeing some weakness in the next few days down to support at 79.50.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
The Greed of Goldman – Market Analysis for 19th April 2010 by Singaporeseeds
GS
Thought I should analyze the chart of Goldman Sachs since they were leading the entire market on Friday. They should have seen it coming to them.
Weekly Chart of GS
On the weekly charts, the tank brought GS to below the important 50 and 200 weekly moving average. Just scroll back and observe how well GS reacts to it.
Daily Chart of GS
The huge tank on Friday brought GS right below all my moving averages. There’s a strong support at 160 which may take a few attempts to break. We might be seeing a bounce on Monday to the resistance range from 165-168 as indicated by the 50, 200 and 1000 day moving averages. I do not think GS will be able to rally above these levels and will continue the tank to around the 140 price level.
DOW
Weekly Chart of the Dow
Daily chart of the Dow
The Dow breaks out of its psychologically important level of 11,000 on Wednesday and then forms an evening star by Friday and is right below the 1000 day moving average. On weekly charts, the Dow forms a doji right below the 200 week moving average.
S&P500
Weekly Chart of the S&P
Daily chart of the S&P
The setup for the S&P is very similar to the Dow. Bearish doji right below the 200 week moving average on the weekly charts. On the daily charts, an evening star just below some significant trendline resistances that I had in my charts since Jan 2010.
Weekly Chart of the Nasdaq
Daily chart of the Nasdaq
The NASDAQ is looking least bearish of all though the Fibonacci retracement levels are indicating that there may not be much bullishness left.
Conclusion:
I believe we had just seen the top of the markets and we are now at the beginning of the correction. On Monday, we might have a bounce for the 3 indexes that should not go beyond 50% of the tank on Friday. However if we manage to break above the previous high that we had establish last Thursday, then this reversal signal would then be a false one and we will continue to rally.
Crude Oil
Daily chart of crude
Quote from my market analysis of Crude last Friday:
“Crude recently broke it's previous high and resistance at 82.50. It broke and came back to test support on Tuesday and rallied over the last 3 days together with the S&P. I have a first target at 87.15 which it is at now. The next 2 targets are at 92 and 96.70. However seeing the bearish divergence that crude has made for this last rally, i do not think it should be able to break even my first target level.”
Crude spent the whole of Friday tanking. It should continue to tank until its first significant support at 82.50. I believe crude will trend down over the next few weeks until support at 71.
Thought I should analyze the chart of Goldman Sachs since they were leading the entire market on Friday. They should have seen it coming to them.
Weekly Chart of GS
On the weekly charts, the tank brought GS to below the important 50 and 200 weekly moving average. Just scroll back and observe how well GS reacts to it.
Daily Chart of GS
The huge tank on Friday brought GS right below all my moving averages. There’s a strong support at 160 which may take a few attempts to break. We might be seeing a bounce on Monday to the resistance range from 165-168 as indicated by the 50, 200 and 1000 day moving averages. I do not think GS will be able to rally above these levels and will continue the tank to around the 140 price level.
DOW
Weekly Chart of the Dow
Daily chart of the Dow
The Dow breaks out of its psychologically important level of 11,000 on Wednesday and then forms an evening star by Friday and is right below the 1000 day moving average. On weekly charts, the Dow forms a doji right below the 200 week moving average.
S&P500
Weekly Chart of the S&P
Daily chart of the S&P
The setup for the S&P is very similar to the Dow. Bearish doji right below the 200 week moving average on the weekly charts. On the daily charts, an evening star just below some significant trendline resistances that I had in my charts since Jan 2010.
Weekly Chart of the Nasdaq
Daily chart of the Nasdaq
The NASDAQ is looking least bearish of all though the Fibonacci retracement levels are indicating that there may not be much bullishness left.
Conclusion:
I believe we had just seen the top of the markets and we are now at the beginning of the correction. On Monday, we might have a bounce for the 3 indexes that should not go beyond 50% of the tank on Friday. However if we manage to break above the previous high that we had establish last Thursday, then this reversal signal would then be a false one and we will continue to rally.
Crude Oil
Daily chart of crude
Quote from my market analysis of Crude last Friday:
“Crude recently broke it's previous high and resistance at 82.50. It broke and came back to test support on Tuesday and rallied over the last 3 days together with the S&P. I have a first target at 87.15 which it is at now. The next 2 targets are at 92 and 96.70. However seeing the bearish divergence that crude has made for this last rally, i do not think it should be able to break even my first target level.”
Crude spent the whole of Friday tanking. It should continue to tank until its first significant support at 82.50. I believe crude will trend down over the next few weeks until support at 71.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
The Gold(man) Turning - Weekly Market Analyses (WMA) for 19-23 April 2010
This week’s WMA is indeed a special one… because a historical event just happened on Friday at about 10.40pm – The SEC charged Goldman Sachs of fraud relating to CDOs. Marketwatch.com has a decent coverage of the details. http://www.marketwatch.com/Companies/Goldman_Sachs_Group
On Thursday last week, I was telling Jimmy aka Singaporeseeds that the market is really bullish eventhough it was grossly overbought, and I really was beginning to see that this bullishness was gravity-defying that could again surprise us to last anbother week. He also saw the bullishness and posted in his latest market analysis. Then on Friday night, while we were at a Trader’s gathering with Conrad at AKLTG, just minutes after exiting a scalp, after some server problems midway, about two minutes later, GS tanked really hard. After consulting briefing.com and reading headlines about GS being charged with fraud by the SEC, the plummet of the GS share price was reminiscent of the September 2008 market tanking experience that we witnessed.
As previously, news like this, especially on GS, resonated over into the market within the minutes that followed. This caused technicals to go screwy and skewed the markets for the rest of the day. Let’s see what the charts look like after the shock resonated through the US markets on Friday.
TIP
It was a bullish week for TIP as played out by a bullish divergence in the daily charts with MACD and STO. This is likely to go on for another 2-3 days. The weekly chart seems to be allowing a new shallow uptrend for the short term. The bias change in the daily charts are at risk from being broken – indicating bullishness.
JNK
Coporate junk bonds are also showing another bullish 2 weeks to follow, and the daily charts another 2-3 days of bullishness despite Friday’s shock. There is bearish divergence in all my oscillators and indicators for both daily and weekly charts.
/HG
Copper had a pretty flat week until Friday when prices resonated to the GS news. This brought back prices to value and appears to have started the downleg for the divergence to even out. The coming week may see weaker copper and base metal prices based on the daily charts.
According to the leading indicators (Napier’s), there seems to be indications that the market is toppy. While TIP may take a little longer to play out, both JNK and HG are already starting the downleg and evening out the divergence. Expect a weak spike in the coming two weeks to form a LH, and what should confirm the double top for a correction to be in place.
/DX
Previous week, the weekly charts indicated a correction in the USD, and breaking 80.80 was to be bad for the USD. The GS news recovered the USD from a weekly low of 80.14 to close at 80.90. This has the implication that the correction in the USD is delayed and there may be another short term USD rally. The daily chart is supporting that view as the recent bearish divergence appears to have played out and this week should see the USD climb higher to confirm the short term bullish run. Now if the USD breaks 82.06 and stays above it in the coming two weeks would add on the bullish stance, but if it does not go above 82.06, it should break 80.14 in no time and then there would be a resumption of the downward spiral of the USD.
SPX
I posted this last week “Early next week should be bullish and mid-late next week should see a retracement of a decent proportion…”
As I said earlier, on Thursday, I thought that I was wrong… and I did not expect Friday’s superb tanker to erase Wednesday’s bullish marubuzo.
The weekly charts still show a mild bearish beginnings with risk of a little upside. Failing the 1200 level is very significant as it never closed above 1200 in the weekly charts. The daily charts are just about ready to have a mild correction (expect 1160-1180) but I am expecting a lower high to form, perhaps the week after, with a small rally after the coming week’s correction only to fail at 1210.
Gold /GC
The weekly charts appear bullish despite the weekly pullback. Even so, I would be a little cautious as the weekly chart posted a bearish harami near a top. The daily charts basically show a flattish week that ended badly. There is more downside for gold this coming week.
Crude /CL
Crude has finally completed the weekly sell setup with oscillators and indicators showing not only weakness. It is likely that it is time for crude to take a breather from the rally. On the daily charts, an interim double top has been made and a close below 83 this week would signal a major correction in crude. Both the weekly and daily have bearish divergences that have matured at the same time.
VIX
The VIX bounced off the weekly support. It was a mid-week breach of this support that had me thinking that the market conditions changed to be astronomically bullish. Never did it occur that a SEC fraud charge to GS could even out the support breach. The daily charts show a 15% spike in the VIX with seemingly more to come. The weekly as well as the daily bullish divergence have synchronized to turn around with a nice bang this week and this is highly probably of a volatility turnaround.
SYNOPSIS
I wrote last weekend: “From the above scan, I am expecting a highly probable turnaround this week, with earnings season touted to be the driver… it could be a driver for the bear. There should be a nice spike up, a fakeout if I may say so. The USD should fall early in the week only to pick up later, with TIPS and JNK turning around midweek, as well as the VIX. Commodities appear likely to do so as well, with some counter conventional relationship moves, especially where gold is concerned.
PS. The DJ briefly broke over 11,000 on Friday late night, and now it is news... I expect this to be a fakeout rather than a breakout. ”
Looks like last week really had a spike and then a very late turnaround, with a black swan twist at the end of the week. It really did fake out and the USD fell early in the week to rally up later. TIP did not turnaround (yet), and JNK appears to be doing so. The VIX clearly turned. Commodities fell through as the black swan event as something that sparked recent memories.
For the coming week, I am expecting a tank on Monday, after many people have sunk in the GS fraud news over the weekend. In SG, the news is nothing big, with nothing in the Chinese newspapers about it, and only taking page 3 of the Straits Times. There will be ramifications with GS being charged by the SEC and confidence is clearly shaken.
While I am inclined to be very bearish given Friday’s development and market reaction, I am holding back as it is not as devastating as it can be – yet. I expect some market downside in the SPX, Gold and Crude, with the USD gaining more ground. By next weekend, it should be clearer if the divergences seen are playing out. I am still expecting a small relief rally which should fail the last high, and this needs another 2-3 more shocking events (including the PIIGS which have been sidelined since mid last week).
Last week was the turnaround, and the coming week will seal it if it is to happen.
The MadScientist
This week’s special – GS chart analysis
From the weekly and daily charts, one can see the extent of price devastation the SEC charges brought to GS. The grey boxes are the exactly the same size and the left grey box was measured when the STO (purple oscillator line at the bottom of the chart) was in the overbought zone and until entry into the oversold zone. It seems that GS has a longer way to go down but may bounce a little. There is a bearish divergence that started to correct in a very big way. From what the charts are screaming to me, it appears that GS may stabilize about the about 120-140 level, barring no further action by the SEC, otherwise 100 would be the last line. By comparison to the WCG debacle in 2006, this may be reasonable given circumstances that I am roughly factoring in, including the broad market correction that should be happening over the next few weeks.
In the very short term, while news would spread and sink in over the weekend, this should be played out on Monday morning with the 5 min chart showing weakness. The 30 min chart, however, is indicating a possible bounce after the initial tank. We’ll just have to see what happens…
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
On Thursday last week, I was telling Jimmy aka Singaporeseeds that the market is really bullish eventhough it was grossly overbought, and I really was beginning to see that this bullishness was gravity-defying that could again surprise us to last anbother week. He also saw the bullishness and posted in his latest market analysis. Then on Friday night, while we were at a Trader’s gathering with Conrad at AKLTG, just minutes after exiting a scalp, after some server problems midway, about two minutes later, GS tanked really hard. After consulting briefing.com and reading headlines about GS being charged with fraud by the SEC, the plummet of the GS share price was reminiscent of the September 2008 market tanking experience that we witnessed.
As previously, news like this, especially on GS, resonated over into the market within the minutes that followed. This caused technicals to go screwy and skewed the markets for the rest of the day. Let’s see what the charts look like after the shock resonated through the US markets on Friday.
TIP
It was a bullish week for TIP as played out by a bullish divergence in the daily charts with MACD and STO. This is likely to go on for another 2-3 days. The weekly chart seems to be allowing a new shallow uptrend for the short term. The bias change in the daily charts are at risk from being broken – indicating bullishness.
JNK
Coporate junk bonds are also showing another bullish 2 weeks to follow, and the daily charts another 2-3 days of bullishness despite Friday’s shock. There is bearish divergence in all my oscillators and indicators for both daily and weekly charts.
/HG
Copper had a pretty flat week until Friday when prices resonated to the GS news. This brought back prices to value and appears to have started the downleg for the divergence to even out. The coming week may see weaker copper and base metal prices based on the daily charts.
According to the leading indicators (Napier’s), there seems to be indications that the market is toppy. While TIP may take a little longer to play out, both JNK and HG are already starting the downleg and evening out the divergence. Expect a weak spike in the coming two weeks to form a LH, and what should confirm the double top for a correction to be in place.
/DX
Previous week, the weekly charts indicated a correction in the USD, and breaking 80.80 was to be bad for the USD. The GS news recovered the USD from a weekly low of 80.14 to close at 80.90. This has the implication that the correction in the USD is delayed and there may be another short term USD rally. The daily chart is supporting that view as the recent bearish divergence appears to have played out and this week should see the USD climb higher to confirm the short term bullish run. Now if the USD breaks 82.06 and stays above it in the coming two weeks would add on the bullish stance, but if it does not go above 82.06, it should break 80.14 in no time and then there would be a resumption of the downward spiral of the USD.
SPX
I posted this last week “Early next week should be bullish and mid-late next week should see a retracement of a decent proportion…”
As I said earlier, on Thursday, I thought that I was wrong… and I did not expect Friday’s superb tanker to erase Wednesday’s bullish marubuzo.
The weekly charts still show a mild bearish beginnings with risk of a little upside. Failing the 1200 level is very significant as it never closed above 1200 in the weekly charts. The daily charts are just about ready to have a mild correction (expect 1160-1180) but I am expecting a lower high to form, perhaps the week after, with a small rally after the coming week’s correction only to fail at 1210.
Gold /GC
The weekly charts appear bullish despite the weekly pullback. Even so, I would be a little cautious as the weekly chart posted a bearish harami near a top. The daily charts basically show a flattish week that ended badly. There is more downside for gold this coming week.
Crude /CL
Crude has finally completed the weekly sell setup with oscillators and indicators showing not only weakness. It is likely that it is time for crude to take a breather from the rally. On the daily charts, an interim double top has been made and a close below 83 this week would signal a major correction in crude. Both the weekly and daily have bearish divergences that have matured at the same time.
VIX
The VIX bounced off the weekly support. It was a mid-week breach of this support that had me thinking that the market conditions changed to be astronomically bullish. Never did it occur that a SEC fraud charge to GS could even out the support breach. The daily charts show a 15% spike in the VIX with seemingly more to come. The weekly as well as the daily bullish divergence have synchronized to turn around with a nice bang this week and this is highly probably of a volatility turnaround.
SYNOPSIS
I wrote last weekend: “From the above scan, I am expecting a highly probable turnaround this week, with earnings season touted to be the driver… it could be a driver for the bear. There should be a nice spike up, a fakeout if I may say so. The USD should fall early in the week only to pick up later, with TIPS and JNK turning around midweek, as well as the VIX. Commodities appear likely to do so as well, with some counter conventional relationship moves, especially where gold is concerned.
PS. The DJ briefly broke over 11,000 on Friday late night, and now it is news... I expect this to be a fakeout rather than a breakout. ”
Looks like last week really had a spike and then a very late turnaround, with a black swan twist at the end of the week. It really did fake out and the USD fell early in the week to rally up later. TIP did not turnaround (yet), and JNK appears to be doing so. The VIX clearly turned. Commodities fell through as the black swan event as something that sparked recent memories.
For the coming week, I am expecting a tank on Monday, after many people have sunk in the GS fraud news over the weekend. In SG, the news is nothing big, with nothing in the Chinese newspapers about it, and only taking page 3 of the Straits Times. There will be ramifications with GS being charged by the SEC and confidence is clearly shaken.
While I am inclined to be very bearish given Friday’s development and market reaction, I am holding back as it is not as devastating as it can be – yet. I expect some market downside in the SPX, Gold and Crude, with the USD gaining more ground. By next weekend, it should be clearer if the divergences seen are playing out. I am still expecting a small relief rally which should fail the last high, and this needs another 2-3 more shocking events (including the PIIGS which have been sidelined since mid last week).
Last week was the turnaround, and the coming week will seal it if it is to happen.
The MadScientist
This week’s special – GS chart analysis
From the weekly and daily charts, one can see the extent of price devastation the SEC charges brought to GS. The grey boxes are the exactly the same size and the left grey box was measured when the STO (purple oscillator line at the bottom of the chart) was in the overbought zone and until entry into the oversold zone. It seems that GS has a longer way to go down but may bounce a little. There is a bearish divergence that started to correct in a very big way. From what the charts are screaming to me, it appears that GS may stabilize about the about 120-140 level, barring no further action by the SEC, otherwise 100 would be the last line. By comparison to the WCG debacle in 2006, this may be reasonable given circumstances that I am roughly factoring in, including the broad market correction that should be happening over the next few weeks.
In the very short term, while news would spread and sink in over the weekend, this should be played out on Monday morning with the 5 min chart showing weakness. The 30 min chart, however, is indicating a possible bounce after the initial tank. We’ll just have to see what happens…
Note: Any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Strong earnings rally – Market Analysis for 16/04/2010 by Singaporeseeds
S&P
The rally from Tuesday to Thursday brought the market indexes to new highs. We are now at my first S&P resistance of 1210 and the market seems to be setting up for another rally in pre-market trading now. This rally should bring us above 1210. I have another resistance at 1215, which if broken, might mean that we are going up to as high as 1300 on the S&P.
I will be monitoring the developments closely over the next few days. Volatility had expanded over the last few days and as all market reversals are, we might peak and reverse in a very volatile fashion.
Crude Oil
Crude recently broke it's previous high and resistance at 82.50. It broke and came back to test support on Tuesday and rallied over the last 3 days together with the S&P. I have a first target at 87.15 which it is at now. The next 2 targets are at 92 and 96.70. However seeing the bearish divergence that crude has made for this last rally, i do not think it should be able to break even my first target level.
The rally from Tuesday to Thursday brought the market indexes to new highs. We are now at my first S&P resistance of 1210 and the market seems to be setting up for another rally in pre-market trading now. This rally should bring us above 1210. I have another resistance at 1215, which if broken, might mean that we are going up to as high as 1300 on the S&P.
I will be monitoring the developments closely over the next few days. Volatility had expanded over the last few days and as all market reversals are, we might peak and reverse in a very volatile fashion.
Crude Oil
Crude recently broke it's previous high and resistance at 82.50. It broke and came back to test support on Tuesday and rallied over the last 3 days together with the S&P. I have a first target at 87.15 which it is at now. The next 2 targets are at 92 and 96.70. However seeing the bearish divergence that crude has made for this last rally, i do not think it should be able to break even my first target level.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
What Julius Caesar Can Teach Us About Buying Real Estate
IT IS SAID THAT ONE TIME HE LOOKED UPON A STATUE OF ALEXANDER THE GREAT AND BURST INTO TEARS.
His friends were surprised, and asked him the reason of it. "Do you think," said he, "I have not just cause to weep, when I consider that at my age Alexander had conquered so many nations, while all this time I have done nothing that is memorable?"
His name was Guis Julius Caesar and, at 38 years of age (55 years old by today's standards) he already considered himself a failure.
What made it particularly painful wasn't just that he had accomplished so little, but that his peers had accomplished so much.
While his rivals such as Pompey, Cicero and Cato were winning glory while advancing through Rome's political system as the next leaders of the country, Caesar was forced to go into hiding. From house to house he ran fearing for his life until finally, after much persuasion, Sulla, the dictator during that time, took his name off the proscription list.
So he survived Sulla. But it was clear to him, as he stared up at that statue of Alexander the Great in Spain, that he had gotten a late start to life. Indeed, perhaps too late to ever really matter.
I share this story with you because I've often reminded myself of Caesar's story when I've honestly taken best stock of myself and am not happy with my accomplishments to date.
Whenever I have one of those days, I think back to Caesar. I think back to the astounding achievements he had after looking up at that statue. I'm amazed by the giant of history Caesar has become. I'm amazed that this man, arguably the single most important individual in the history of western civilization, wept at the statue of Alexander when he was 38 because he felt like a failure.
In all of my reading of both classical and contemporary history there is not one person whose "turnaround" from failure to success was so complete.
Some may argue that Lincoln, one of my favorite people ever, was viewed by himself and by others as a complete failure until he was elected at 52 years old. But as great as Lincoln was, his impact on our nation was as great as Caesar's was on western civilization.
Every time we look at our watch or our calendar we can thank Caesar for creating it (don't let anybody tell you that we follow a Gregorian calendar; that was just a revision of Caesar's). To this day, the word "Tsar" in Russian and Kaiser in German means Caesar. The list of his global impact goes on and on.
What lessons do these great men pass down to us through history?
A big one is that no matter how old you are, or how bad you feel about yourself, it's never too late to gain control of your life. Caesar proved that to us.
The key, as Napoleon, a great admirer of Caesar would say is "careful planning followed by rapid execution." Think about that: careful planning followed by rapid execution.
Much like today, the pressure to compete, to be the very best, was immense in Caesar's day. But in those days being the best was about military conquest.
These days it's about financial conquest.
For those of us who sometimes feel like Caesar, the question is what can you do about it? How can you change your life so dramatically over the next twenty years that when you look back to today you can't believe you were even here? By the time Caesar conquered the world I'm sure he looked back upon this day as a turning point.
Maybe you're not looking at a statue of "Megas Alexandras." Maybe you're looking at a picture of Bill Gates. Or Warren Buffett. Or those guys who founded Google.
Come up with somebody, anybody, who has accomplished great things, and use their accomplishments as fuel. And let that fuel burn so brightly inside of you that it gives you focus ... guides your way ... keeps you going.
Caesar looked at Alexendar. So did Hannibal, Pompey and dozens of other greats. Alexander looked at Achilles. Warren Buffett looked at Benjamin Graham. The list goes on and on.
I've always looked at Buffett, but recently I've been looking at the hedge-fund managers who made billions shorting the real estate market. Here I was writing Tycoon Report articles in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 predicting the real estate crash, but I didn't make a billion dollars, $100 million or even $25 million betting on it.
The truth is I made absolutely nothing betting on one of the most obvious opportunities I've ever seen in my life. Why? Because my investment philosophy doesn't include betting "short" (i.e. betting that prices will go lower). The only way I can make money without violating my investment philosophy is on the buy side.
And buy best stocks for 2011 I did: from the second half of 2008 - March 5th 2009 I bought stocks and I did make money. Lots of money. But nothing on the scale of the great men and women who dominate the investing field.
That truly burns me up like you cannot imagine. It's the fire that keeps me going ... that guides my way ... that gives me focus.
I promised myself I would never let that happen again. I promised myself that the next time I saw that kind of opportunity I would take full advantage of it ...
Fortunately, for us, that kind of opportunity is upon us again in real estate. You could say that it's the other side of the real estate coin.
That's why I look forward to next week's release of Ethan's real estate course -- for myself, and for you.
Because just as I knew that real estate was a "SELL" during the boom years, I know that real estate is a "STRONG BUY" right now.
Just as I knew that there was an historic opportunity to sell real estate in 2007, I know there is an historic opportunity to buy real estate in 2010.
That's the way markets work, and this time I plan to take full advantage of them.
And who better to show us how than a guy who turned $10,000 into more than $1.3 million investing in real estate through good markets and bad?
His friends were surprised, and asked him the reason of it. "Do you think," said he, "I have not just cause to weep, when I consider that at my age Alexander had conquered so many nations, while all this time I have done nothing that is memorable?"
His name was Guis Julius Caesar and, at 38 years of age (55 years old by today's standards) he already considered himself a failure.
What made it particularly painful wasn't just that he had accomplished so little, but that his peers had accomplished so much.
While his rivals such as Pompey, Cicero and Cato were winning glory while advancing through Rome's political system as the next leaders of the country, Caesar was forced to go into hiding. From house to house he ran fearing for his life until finally, after much persuasion, Sulla, the dictator during that time, took his name off the proscription list.
So he survived Sulla. But it was clear to him, as he stared up at that statue of Alexander the Great in Spain, that he had gotten a late start to life. Indeed, perhaps too late to ever really matter.
I share this story with you because I've often reminded myself of Caesar's story when I've honestly taken best stock of myself and am not happy with my accomplishments to date.
Whenever I have one of those days, I think back to Caesar. I think back to the astounding achievements he had after looking up at that statue. I'm amazed by the giant of history Caesar has become. I'm amazed that this man, arguably the single most important individual in the history of western civilization, wept at the statue of Alexander when he was 38 because he felt like a failure.
In all of my reading of both classical and contemporary history there is not one person whose "turnaround" from failure to success was so complete.
Some may argue that Lincoln, one of my favorite people ever, was viewed by himself and by others as a complete failure until he was elected at 52 years old. But as great as Lincoln was, his impact on our nation was as great as Caesar's was on western civilization.
Every time we look at our watch or our calendar we can thank Caesar for creating it (don't let anybody tell you that we follow a Gregorian calendar; that was just a revision of Caesar's). To this day, the word "Tsar" in Russian and Kaiser in German means Caesar. The list of his global impact goes on and on.
What lessons do these great men pass down to us through history?
A big one is that no matter how old you are, or how bad you feel about yourself, it's never too late to gain control of your life. Caesar proved that to us.
The key, as Napoleon, a great admirer of Caesar would say is "careful planning followed by rapid execution." Think about that: careful planning followed by rapid execution.
Much like today, the pressure to compete, to be the very best, was immense in Caesar's day. But in those days being the best was about military conquest.
These days it's about financial conquest.
For those of us who sometimes feel like Caesar, the question is what can you do about it? How can you change your life so dramatically over the next twenty years that when you look back to today you can't believe you were even here? By the time Caesar conquered the world I'm sure he looked back upon this day as a turning point.
Maybe you're not looking at a statue of "Megas Alexandras." Maybe you're looking at a picture of Bill Gates. Or Warren Buffett. Or those guys who founded Google.
Come up with somebody, anybody, who has accomplished great things, and use their accomplishments as fuel. And let that fuel burn so brightly inside of you that it gives you focus ... guides your way ... keeps you going.
Caesar looked at Alexendar. So did Hannibal, Pompey and dozens of other greats. Alexander looked at Achilles. Warren Buffett looked at Benjamin Graham. The list goes on and on.
I've always looked at Buffett, but recently I've been looking at the hedge-fund managers who made billions shorting the real estate market. Here I was writing Tycoon Report articles in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 predicting the real estate crash, but I didn't make a billion dollars, $100 million or even $25 million betting on it.
The truth is I made absolutely nothing betting on one of the most obvious opportunities I've ever seen in my life. Why? Because my investment philosophy doesn't include betting "short" (i.e. betting that prices will go lower). The only way I can make money without violating my investment philosophy is on the buy side.
And buy best stocks for 2011 I did: from the second half of 2008 - March 5th 2009 I bought stocks and I did make money. Lots of money. But nothing on the scale of the great men and women who dominate the investing field.
That truly burns me up like you cannot imagine. It's the fire that keeps me going ... that guides my way ... that gives me focus.
I promised myself I would never let that happen again. I promised myself that the next time I saw that kind of opportunity I would take full advantage of it ...
Fortunately, for us, that kind of opportunity is upon us again in real estate. You could say that it's the other side of the real estate coin.
That's why I look forward to next week's release of Ethan's real estate course -- for myself, and for you.
Because just as I knew that real estate was a "SELL" during the boom years, I know that real estate is a "STRONG BUY" right now.
Just as I knew that there was an historic opportunity to sell real estate in 2007, I know there is an historic opportunity to buy real estate in 2010.
That's the way markets work, and this time I plan to take full advantage of them.
And who better to show us how than a guy who turned $10,000 into more than $1.3 million investing in real estate through good markets and bad?
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Weekly Market Analyses (WMA) for 12 April – 16 April 2010
TIPS
Weekly divergence correcting seems like it is about to end after this week’s spike down and rally like mad up. Daily downtrend spiked down on Monday out of the channel and mid-week registered a rally up. TIPS look bullish in the short term , but if it fails to make a HH on the daily, and drops below the support at 103.38, that’s confirmation of a trigger for a trend change bias. Since January, TIPS has trended downwards, divergent from the S&P500. As a leading indicator, this is telling of an impending correction/trend reversal.
JNK
Weekly divergence mildly corrected and may need to register a very much mild MACDH which can happen in the next two weeks. The RSI and STO are unlikely to make a higher high (HH) and that is where the turn would be. Daily cracked early in the week, and then developed a bullish stance, albeit very short term. Moving forward, expect that the MACDH to register positive bars over next week, to complete a bearish divergence turning around 40-40.5.
DBB / /HG
Base metals is continuing its stunt… The weekly divergence is continuing its build up. The daily shows overbought build up in an obvious divergence that is correcting. Last week, the copper rally stalled and retraced midweek. Copper is now bearish for this week
The above covers the three main leading indicators as outlined by Russell Napier. According to his indicators, we are in for a yet another early bullish week. All last week, economic data was shrugged off indicating remaining bullishness in the general markets. With copper weakening, and TIP and JNK about to turnaround, the turning is around the corner.
/DX
The weekly USD futures chart are showing signs of a correction in the USD, which is likely to propel markets up further. This comes in line with some soothing news about Greece, strengthening the Euro a little. All these lok temporary. The daily chart on the other hand is showing a potential HH-HL-LH-LL-LH-LL pattern and the indicators are showing USD weakness this week. Breaking 80.80 would be bad for the USD.
SPX / S&P500
Accentuating what I wrote last week: “It is really interesting how the picture looks… the weekly STO show an overbought situation with the MACDH pointing to a huge divergence. While undeniable that the market is heading up, it is a maniac patient in the daily charts, which again are smacking me in the face with bearish divergences. Going into a very seasonally bullish April, this return to mean would be really interesting. Again, the charts tell me that this week would be rather bullish, and end-April onwards, may come the day that the music dies. This market is on Prozac, and watch of the withdrawal reactions!”
Early next week should be bullish and mid-late next week should see a retracement of a decent proportion…
/GC / Gold
Indeed it was a bullish week for Gold. Still looks like it will continue.
/CL / Crude
Weekly charts show long term technical weakness with about one more week of exuberance. Am still expecting it to happen at the end of April, after the seasonal burn out and the realities of the markets come back.
VIX / VXX
Weekly VIX charts are showing signs of strength at a 3 year support at 16. The daily VIX are about to complete the last pop down mid next week. And there is divergence or at least HLs on the RSI and STO indicators. The VXX (VIX ETF) is almost completing a 9-13-9 pattern, leaving this week to perfect the pattern. Confluence is reached as the BOTH daily and weekly charts are to complete the patterns THIS week.
From the above scan, I am expecting a highly probable turnaround this week, with earnings season touted to be the driver… it could be a driver for the bear. There should be a nice spike up, a fakeout if I may say so. The USD should fall early in the week only to pick up later, with TIPS and JNK turning around midweek, as well as the VIX. Commodities appear likely to do so as well, with some counter conventional relationship moves, especially where gold is concerned.
The MadScientist
PS. The DJ briefly broke over 11,000 on Friday late night, and now it is news... I expect this to be a fakeout rather than a breakout.
Note: Do note that any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Weekly divergence correcting seems like it is about to end after this week’s spike down and rally like mad up. Daily downtrend spiked down on Monday out of the channel and mid-week registered a rally up. TIPS look bullish in the short term , but if it fails to make a HH on the daily, and drops below the support at 103.38, that’s confirmation of a trigger for a trend change bias. Since January, TIPS has trended downwards, divergent from the S&P500. As a leading indicator, this is telling of an impending correction/trend reversal.
JNK
Weekly divergence mildly corrected and may need to register a very much mild MACDH which can happen in the next two weeks. The RSI and STO are unlikely to make a higher high (HH) and that is where the turn would be. Daily cracked early in the week, and then developed a bullish stance, albeit very short term. Moving forward, expect that the MACDH to register positive bars over next week, to complete a bearish divergence turning around 40-40.5.
DBB / /HG
Base metals is continuing its stunt… The weekly divergence is continuing its build up. The daily shows overbought build up in an obvious divergence that is correcting. Last week, the copper rally stalled and retraced midweek. Copper is now bearish for this week
The above covers the three main leading indicators as outlined by Russell Napier. According to his indicators, we are in for a yet another early bullish week. All last week, economic data was shrugged off indicating remaining bullishness in the general markets. With copper weakening, and TIP and JNK about to turnaround, the turning is around the corner.
/DX
The weekly USD futures chart are showing signs of a correction in the USD, which is likely to propel markets up further. This comes in line with some soothing news about Greece, strengthening the Euro a little. All these lok temporary. The daily chart on the other hand is showing a potential HH-HL-LH-LL-LH-LL pattern and the indicators are showing USD weakness this week. Breaking 80.80 would be bad for the USD.
SPX / S&P500
Accentuating what I wrote last week: “It is really interesting how the picture looks… the weekly STO show an overbought situation with the MACDH pointing to a huge divergence. While undeniable that the market is heading up, it is a maniac patient in the daily charts, which again are smacking me in the face with bearish divergences. Going into a very seasonally bullish April, this return to mean would be really interesting. Again, the charts tell me that this week would be rather bullish, and end-April onwards, may come the day that the music dies. This market is on Prozac, and watch of the withdrawal reactions!”
Early next week should be bullish and mid-late next week should see a retracement of a decent proportion…
/GC / Gold
Indeed it was a bullish week for Gold. Still looks like it will continue.
/CL / Crude
Weekly charts show long term technical weakness with about one more week of exuberance. Am still expecting it to happen at the end of April, after the seasonal burn out and the realities of the markets come back.
VIX / VXX
Weekly VIX charts are showing signs of strength at a 3 year support at 16. The daily VIX are about to complete the last pop down mid next week. And there is divergence or at least HLs on the RSI and STO indicators. The VXX (VIX ETF) is almost completing a 9-13-9 pattern, leaving this week to perfect the pattern. Confluence is reached as the BOTH daily and weekly charts are to complete the patterns THIS week.
From the above scan, I am expecting a highly probable turnaround this week, with earnings season touted to be the driver… it could be a driver for the bear. There should be a nice spike up, a fakeout if I may say so. The USD should fall early in the week only to pick up later, with TIPS and JNK turning around midweek, as well as the VIX. Commodities appear likely to do so as well, with some counter conventional relationship moves, especially where gold is concerned.
The MadScientist
PS. The DJ briefly broke over 11,000 on Friday late night, and now it is news... I expect this to be a fakeout rather than a breakout.
Note: Do note that any material posted here is of my sole opinion, and my opinion may differ from others. It is definitely NOT a solicitation to do anything else as a consequence of reading this material. The material presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Close to a market high – Market Analysis for 09/04/2010 by Singaporeseeds
I believe we are at or very close to a market high but I do not think that the market is due for a correction yet. Most probably we will be seeing some weakness for a week or two before the market reverses. Most market correction need not be sharp and abrupt but may take a couple of weeks of downtrending before it gains momentum.
However I believe we would have a down market today due to the start of earnings season on Monday. We might see a some weakness in the morning session followed by consolidation as traders step aside to wait for the start of earnings season.
However I believe we would have a down market today due to the start of earnings season on Monday. We might see a some weakness in the morning session followed by consolidation as traders step aside to wait for the start of earnings season.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Beginning of the downtrend? – Market Analysis for 08/04/2010 by Singaporeseeds
S&P Futures weekly charts
S&P Futures daily charts
Daily RSI, MACD and stochastics are beginning to turn. At this point, this is still not a confirmed downtrend but we might have made a top at 1188. I’ve got a feeling that this is not the start of the downturn but I’ll let my indicators tell me what to do. I’ve stated that I feel the top of the market should be somewhere around 1210. We should not be making any big reversals until we hit this level.
I’ve got a strong support at 1150 for the S&P and if the index fails to break through this level, we might be set up to make new highs to 1210.
S&P Futures daily charts
Daily RSI, MACD and stochastics are beginning to turn. At this point, this is still not a confirmed downtrend but we might have made a top at 1188. I’ve got a feeling that this is not the start of the downturn but I’ll let my indicators tell me what to do. I’ve stated that I feel the top of the market should be somewhere around 1210. We should not be making any big reversals until we hit this level.
I’ve got a strong support at 1150 for the S&P and if the index fails to break through this level, we might be set up to make new highs to 1210.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
WMA - 4 April 2010 - POP! goes the weasel...
TIPS
Weekly divergence correcting into a mild downtrend with strength getting weak. Daily downtrend underway with weakening signals and at lower end of the channel. Weakness observed in the rally.
JNK
Weekly divergence mildly corrected. Daily is in some sort of range squeeze with overbought signals in the STO. May be starting to crack…
DBB / /HG
Base metals is doing one hell of a stunt… The weekly divergence is just building up, having just about broken the back of the bull in the January 2010 correction. The daily tells me of overbought build up in an obvious divergence about to correct. There is an estimated 4-5 days of rallying legs for this.
Copper is now very bullish, having incompleted a divergent correction. Daily charts scream of mania for the rest of this week.
The above covers the three main leading indicators as outlined by Russell Napier. According to his indicators, we are in for a week of absolute bullishness, which is suggestive given the economic data, especially the NFP employment report out on Good Friday. Even Paul Krugman mentioned in is column in a very short post that the patient is in a stable condition.
/DX
The USD closed above 81 for the month of March, and the next day bounced a little further up to 81.44. This indicates a good rally in the USD, something which Napier also had commented about for 2010, contrary to many other analysts or writers. Hereon, the USD should be on a confirmed uptrend and have a corrective dip later. Hence, the charts are not signaling a USD bear rally. Clearly the relationship of the USD with the SPX (and gold) is under transition, but I would like to keep this under the radar scans as it ran out of Greece (pun intended), and is still moving along the uptrend.
SPX / S&P500
It is really interesting how the picture looks… the weekly STO show an overbought situation with the MACDH pointing to a huge divergence. While undeniable that the market is heading up, it is a maniac patient in the daily charts, which again are smacking me in the face with bearish divergences. Going into a very seasonally bullish April, this return to mean would be really interesting. Again, the charts tell me that this week would be rather bullish, and end-April onwards, may come the day that the music dies. This market is on Prozac, and watch of the withdrawal reactions!
/GC / Gold
Gold’s relationship with the USD is on the rocks and is in transition. While the USD rose, Gold did not fall as much. On the weekly charts, Gold looks somewhat bullish. The daily charts also scream of the birth of another small gold bull. Although I see bullishness, moving forward, I wonder if Gold is about to do another spectacular spike or just range. This bull I would be cautious for now.
/CL / Crude
Weekly charts show long term technical weakness with about two more weeks of exuberance. Daily charts are very bullish, and with a maniac spike up last Thursday, I wonder how and when this bearish divergence is going to play out. IF it is, I am expecting it to happen at the end of April, after the seasonal burn out and the realities of the markets come back.
VIX / VXX
This is a “special” of sorts… I remember that the VIX was in the news at the height of the 2008/2009 market tanker. Today, it seems forgotten by the news, and that’s where complacency sets in. Weekly VIX charts are showing signs of strength with a 3 year support at 16. The daily VIX are also in a squeeze and resolution should be set soon. Given the problems of the world economy right now, doesn’t seem like the VIX would drop to 11.5 as it did in the 2007 height of the markets. The VXX (VIX ETF) is also showing some interesting pictures in the weekly and daily charts. “How low can you go?”
From the above scan, markets will once again make phenomenal advances to achieve some sort of mania. Although expecting, I am also aware that I would be surprised by this exuberance. And I must restrain myself and be patient for the turning…
Weekly divergence correcting into a mild downtrend with strength getting weak. Daily downtrend underway with weakening signals and at lower end of the channel. Weakness observed in the rally.
JNK
Weekly divergence mildly corrected. Daily is in some sort of range squeeze with overbought signals in the STO. May be starting to crack…
DBB / /HG
Base metals is doing one hell of a stunt… The weekly divergence is just building up, having just about broken the back of the bull in the January 2010 correction. The daily tells me of overbought build up in an obvious divergence about to correct. There is an estimated 4-5 days of rallying legs for this.
Copper is now very bullish, having incompleted a divergent correction. Daily charts scream of mania for the rest of this week.
The above covers the three main leading indicators as outlined by Russell Napier. According to his indicators, we are in for a week of absolute bullishness, which is suggestive given the economic data, especially the NFP employment report out on Good Friday. Even Paul Krugman mentioned in is column in a very short post that the patient is in a stable condition.
/DX
The USD closed above 81 for the month of March, and the next day bounced a little further up to 81.44. This indicates a good rally in the USD, something which Napier also had commented about for 2010, contrary to many other analysts or writers. Hereon, the USD should be on a confirmed uptrend and have a corrective dip later. Hence, the charts are not signaling a USD bear rally. Clearly the relationship of the USD with the SPX (and gold) is under transition, but I would like to keep this under the radar scans as it ran out of Greece (pun intended), and is still moving along the uptrend.
SPX / S&P500
It is really interesting how the picture looks… the weekly STO show an overbought situation with the MACDH pointing to a huge divergence. While undeniable that the market is heading up, it is a maniac patient in the daily charts, which again are smacking me in the face with bearish divergences. Going into a very seasonally bullish April, this return to mean would be really interesting. Again, the charts tell me that this week would be rather bullish, and end-April onwards, may come the day that the music dies. This market is on Prozac, and watch of the withdrawal reactions!
/GC / Gold
Gold’s relationship with the USD is on the rocks and is in transition. While the USD rose, Gold did not fall as much. On the weekly charts, Gold looks somewhat bullish. The daily charts also scream of the birth of another small gold bull. Although I see bullishness, moving forward, I wonder if Gold is about to do another spectacular spike or just range. This bull I would be cautious for now.
/CL / Crude
Weekly charts show long term technical weakness with about two more weeks of exuberance. Daily charts are very bullish, and with a maniac spike up last Thursday, I wonder how and when this bearish divergence is going to play out. IF it is, I am expecting it to happen at the end of April, after the seasonal burn out and the realities of the markets come back.
VIX / VXX
This is a “special” of sorts… I remember that the VIX was in the news at the height of the 2008/2009 market tanker. Today, it seems forgotten by the news, and that’s where complacency sets in. Weekly VIX charts are showing signs of strength with a 3 year support at 16. The daily VIX are also in a squeeze and resolution should be set soon. Given the problems of the world economy right now, doesn’t seem like the VIX would drop to 11.5 as it did in the 2007 height of the markets. The VXX (VIX ETF) is also showing some interesting pictures in the weekly and daily charts. “How low can you go?”
From the above scan, markets will once again make phenomenal advances to achieve some sort of mania. Although expecting, I am also aware that I would be surprised by this exuberance. And I must restrain myself and be patient for the turning…
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