Christmas Rally Begins! - Market Analysis for 20th December 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


This is one of those times where it’s difficult to make a decision on the market. There are conflicting signals in the market and with volume so low, I couldn’t figure out which one would be more reliable. Low volume really screws up our technical analysis. Most experienced traders that I know are already out or getting out of the market. Maybe I should switch to a 2 day chart or more.

Anyway this coming week will be the start of the Christmas rally and I’m having a feeling that we might not have it this year. We shall see how it goes this week.

Daily chart for the dollar (UUP)


The dollar is moving according to the fibo retracement. We might see some fierce resistance at 23.80 but other than that, it should be a nice rally up.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Gold is making a consolidation move. It is still on a huge bullish trend with no end in sight though. Target at 143.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Silver’s parabolic trend is far from over. I believe its uptrend should end around the same time as gold’s. Anyway I’ve got a target at 35 and strong support at 25. Once it breaks 25, this uptrend would be over. I believe now should be a good time to enter on silver.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Crude is forming a consolidation pattern. Target is still at 41.80.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural gas broke below its uptrending channel. This means that it might test support at 5.20 once more. At this point, I do not think it would make a new low. Longer term charts are very bullish with shorter term price weakness.

Pre Santa Claus Rally – Market Analysis for Week beginning 13th December 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


S&P and NASDAQ had broken to new highs while Dow is still lagging behind. From the looks of RSI and MACD, it seems that the market has some more fuel for a rally. It might dip a bit this coming week but it seems that we might just see a Santa Claus rally at the end of the year. My target would be 1290 on the S&P.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The dollar did a bounce off the 20 day moving average. It looks ready to rally up to its first target at 23.80 and the second target at 24.50.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


My target for gold is still the same. Final target at 143.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Parabolic silver is getting volatile as it nears the end of its parabolic trend. This is typical of all parabolic trends and this one is no exception. There is a RSI trendline (purple line) and as long as silver keeps above this purple line, this trend will continue.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


There are no changes for Crude. My target is still at 41.84.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural Gas (UNG) had formed a upward channel as it bottoms out of its 2 year downtrend. UNG is at the beginning of a long uptrend that I believe will take 1-2 years to run its course. First target at 7.

Rally on Bad Employment Numbers - Market Analysis for week beginning 6th December 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Although on weekly charts, all 3 indexes had made a bullish MAP pattern (Moving average pattern as taught by David Elliot) on daily it seems to have lost bullish momentum. The problems in Europe and Korea had not moved the indexes much and the markets actually rallied in the first week this month. This rally is off the 50 day moving average and is a very bullish sign.
Last Friday when the non-farm payroll announced a very much worse than expected employment number, the market shrugged it off and continued to rally. I decided to take my profits and observe the markets for the next few weeks.
Every bearish signal that we had for the past few months seemed to be erased in the last hour of trading and it would really pay to take only the bullish signals. It seems that some invisible hand is directing the markets. Currently, I’m more comfortable trading commodities and individual stocks.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The Dollar broke the first significant resistance at around 23.32 and held for 2 days before forming a doji candlestick pattern and then closing below 23.32. I got out immediately. It proceeded to drop and gap and drop. Now its at the 20 day moving average support and lower MOBO support. Should it fail to hold, it will drop to the next support at around 22.65.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Gold and silver defied all bearish signals and continued to rally. It’s worthwhile to note that failure patterns are more reliable than the actual pattern itself. Target for Gold would be at 143 and silver at 31.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Crude Oil (USO) had formed a classic fibo retracement pattern together with the fibo fan. Target at 41.84.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural Gas (UNG) had bounced off the 50 day moving average. This is a bullish signal and coupled with the gap last night, natural gas is on its way to my target at 7.

Analysis of November trades by Singaporeseeds

Microsoft (MSFT)
Daily chart for MSFT


From my analysis at the end of October:
“I have a first target at 27.50 and second target at 31. However the 26.25 to 27.50 region is a strong retracement level and with the stock currently in this region, I will be monitoring constantly and may get out if things do not look good.”

MSFT made a high at 27.30 on the 3rd of November before failing to break the strong resistance level. It closed at 25.30 last night, erasing almost all the gains it made in October.
I got out of all my positions before market close on the 1st of the month, 50 cents from the top of the trend. As I’ve entered on the 6th of October and exited on the 1st of November, I had made 70.5% of this uptrend.

Archer Daniel Midlands (ADM)
Daily chart for ADM


I shorted ADM on the 15th of October and exited my last position on the 16th of November. First noticed this stock when I was going through the stocks that Conrad would usually trade around this time of the year.
The stock made a textbook RSI/MACD bearish divergence with a double top. However I entered too early and got caught by whipsaw at the top. Then when the stock gapped (due to poor earnings which I had expected), I got out and reentered my short position right at the top of the bounce on the 5th of November. Was profitable the very next day. I reckoned that the stock should tank to around 30.50 so I got out when the stock hit 30 on the 16th of October. (This is due to the double top)
The stock closed at 28.88 last night. This means that excluding the one fake out at the top, I’ve got 64.6% of this downtrend. I believe this is a very good trade spoiled only by my lack of confidence to risk some of my profits. As the stock tanked rapidly, my position had more than tripled. I should have held on for a while more as I was in profits. The momentum of the drop was strong with good fundamental reasons (30% drop in profits), MOBO and moving average pattern also did not give me any reason for worry.

Continuation of the Down Move - Market Analysis for 29th November 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


S&P tested its 20 day moving average at around 1,120 twice this past shortened week. The indexes failed to rally above on both attempts. This is bearish for the index especially since there is still a bearish divergence on weekly charts. This week we will see the indexes test the 50 day moving average. Failure to hold the 50 day MA will see the S&P trend down to its 200 day MA. This would be around 1,150.
However with the RSI and MACD so flat now, it seems everyone is waiting in anticipation of the events happening in Europe and Korea. Depending on how it turns out, the market may spike either way.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The dollar rallied as expected. The probability of a bullish divergence rallying is much higher than that of a bearish divergence tanking. Always love to trade bullish divergences. The other recent bullish divergence is Natural Gas.
We are very close to the 23.32 resistance level. However I believe this rally should bring us up to around 23.75.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Gold seems to be forming a head and shoulders pattern with support at 130 over the past few weeks. This is coupled with a bearish divergence. Gold had almost doubled since the financial crisis when it tanked to 700. I believe this 2 year rally is running out of steam soon.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Silver did a parabolic move over the past few months and had just made a double top with a bearish divergence. I believe it is on its way down now. As I’ve stated last week, if it failed to make a higher high soon, the chances are that it will crash down to 20 real soon. I think the down move had already began.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural Gas did a bullish divergence too. It has now broken above the 50 day moving average and had been pausing above the 50 moving average for this past week. I think we should be able to see an up move this week. Target at 6.8.

Pausing for the breakout (or breakdowns) - Market Analysis for 22nd November 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


The indexes did bounce up to their respective 20 day moving averages. This was a hanging man candlestick pattern for Friday. This week we shall see the true nature of the markets. I believe we might be in for a down move over the next few weeks to around 1150 for S&P.
I am sticking with my analysis of a 6 month sideways pattern with strong resistance at 1215 for S&P. This will be 10250 for the Dow.

Daily chart for Dollar (UUP)


I believe the down move for the dollar had ended. It should be moving up to around 23.40 over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


The continuous uptrend for Gold was broken with the 4 day downtrend that ended last Wednesday. I believe we should be in a down move to 122 over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


My market analysis for Silver for last week still holds. If it fails to make a higher high soon, it’s going to crash back to 20 in a jiffy.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Crude oil is moving in a similar fashion to gold. Downside target 32.50.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural Gas stopped right below the 50 day moving average at market close on Friday. Breaking this moving average is significant as it reflects a change of sentiment from bearish to bullish. From the looks of MACD and RSI, it seems that UNG will break this resistance on Monday.

Failed Breakout, Pausing at the Supports Now – Market Analysis for 18th November 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Weekly chart for S&P


Daily chart for S&P


The indexes failed to hold their supports on Tuesday and broke down. To me, this is an indication that the 6 month sideways movement had began. Resistance for this sideways movement will be at 1215. We shall see where the supports are over the next few weeks.
We are currently at the first support level of 1175. We should see a bounce of not more than 50% Tuesday’s down candle before continuing the downtrend. This will be around 1186. Should this 1175 support fail, the next support levels are 1150, 1130 and 1100. I’m not expecting a downward movement beyond 1100 yet.
Be prepared to see gold, silver and crude oil move together with the market and the dollar to move inversely to it.

Can We Hold Onto Our Supports? - Market Analysis for 15th November 2010 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


After a market rally of more than 2 months, the indexes finally closed convincingly down for the week. This is the dip that I’ve been waiting for. This week we will see whether the all important retracement level of 1215 will hold. If it does hold, we might be in the beginning of a huge rally up to 1550 on the S&P. However I believe we might at the beginning of a 6 months sideways movement.

Weekly chart for S&P


Monthly chart for S&P


During the last recession, the S&P hugged the weekly 200 moving average and the monthly 50 moving average for more than 6 months before it finally bounced off both moving averages and began the 3 year rally to 1550. It seems we are in the same position now.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Gold is getting more volatile as it gets parabolic. The trend up to 143 is still intact though. We might continue to see huge swings in gold over the next few weeks.

Weekly chart for Silver (SLV)


Silver has gone parabolic too. I have used the weekly charts to show the huge shooting star at the top of the trend. If silver closes down this week, it may be the start of its downtrend back to around 20 on SLV.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


The trend up to 39 is still intact for now. I believe we should see some big and interesting moves for the S&P, Dow, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil over the next few weeks.

Daily chart for Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural gas closed at support at around 5.50 on Friday. Should this support fail, we will see natural gas make another new low over the next few weeks. However I believe natural gas is at or very close to a bottom and it is now ideal as a longer term investment play.